Here are Ate’s comments on the recent GRK (and Kreate) contract.
Kreate and GRK announced that they had signed an agreement with the City of Vantaa regarding the first implementation phase of the eastern section of the Vantaa Light Rail. The total estimated construction cost for the eastern section alliance is EUR 280 million, which is divided equally between GRK and Kreate. The news comes as no surprise, as the Vantaa City Council approved the revised project plan last week.
Here are Atte’s comments on GRK winning a contract for the construction of a section of the Norrbotniabanan railway line. 
GRK announced on Friday that it won a contract for the construction of a section of the Norrbotniabanan railway line in Northern Sweden. The contract is relatively small for the company in terms of scale, but it is a strategically important reference in Sweden’s growing railway market.
Atte’s pre-comments as GRK reports its Q4 results on Thursday
We expect a stable conclusion to a very strong financial year from GRK, even though the faster-than-anticipated progress of several projects shifted some of the year-end revenue and earnings to earlier quarters. The focal point of the report will particularly be the guidance provided for 2026, as we expect the company’s largest single project to date, the Stegra steel mill project, to conclude during the current year.
Atte has written his quick comment on GRK’s results from this morning.
GRK published its 2025 financial statement release this morning. The fourth-quarter result fell clearly short of our profitability forecasts, while the 2026 guidance was largely in line with our expectations. The order backlog decreased from the strong level of the comparison period as expected, although GRK still has a significant amount of won projects outside its order backlog. In addition, the company significantly raised its long-term revenue target.
Daniel interviewed GRK CEO Mika Mäenpää after the Q4 release.
Topics:
00:00 Introduction
00:12 Summary of 2025
00:46 Q4 highlights
01:28 Year-end tenders
02:38 Tightening competition
03:14 Potential in data center projects
03:50 Progress of the Turku tramway project
04:31 Norrbotniabanan project and future potential
05:31 Impact of the Stegra funding round
05:52 2026 guidance
07:12 Acquisitions
08:20 Organic growth
Here is the company report on GRK by Atte based on the Q4 results.
GRK’s profitability fell short of our forecasts in Q4, although the guidance for 2026 was quite well in line with our expectations. The demand outlook in the company’s end markets remains positive, and market growth in Sweden, in particular, is expected to be strong this year. To achieve its updated revenue target (over EUR 950 million in 2028), we believe the company must also grow through acquisitions. This need is particularly highlighted as the conclusion of the Stegra project leaves a significant gap in revenue from this year onwards. Successful capital allocation will also play a key role in the company’s future value creation. As our forecasts remain roughly unchanged, we maintain our Accumulate recommendation for GRK and our target price of EUR 14.5.
Here are Atte’s comments on how GRK won a major road contract in Estonia.
GRK announced on Monday that it has been selected to carry out the improvement project for Highway 4 between Konuvere and Päärdu in Estonia. The contract value is approximately EUR 38 million, which is a significant order for GRK’s Estonian subsidiary and supports the strong growth we expect for the unit in 2026–2028. Although the project is moderate in scale at the group level, it supports the order backlog and strengthens the company’s position in Estonia. The news does not cause any changes to our forecasts, as we expect the company to continuously secure similar projects for its order backlog.
Behind a paywall. Below is what I believe is the most essential information about the company from the article.
GRK commented to Kauppalehti via email that it has no disputes regarding invoices with Stegra.
“Work on the Stegra project has continued at a significantly lower intensity in the early part of the year compared to the same period last year, and for GRK, the main focus of the project’s work will shift later to 2026,” the company writes.
GRK’s portion of the project is scheduled to end during 2026.
The company does not wish to comment on rumors or its customers’ affairs.
“We can state that we are aware of Stegra’s financing situation and we are naturally monitoring this situation and acting accordingly, as we do in our other projects,” the company told Kauppalehti.
Here are Atte’s comments on how GRK has been chosen to implement railway infrastructure for the Norrbotniabanan railway in Northern Sweden
The contract is valued at approximately EUR 55 million (SEK 595 million) and is already the company’s second contract in a significant railway project. We consider this order a good indication of GRK’s competitiveness in the Swedish market, and it supports our estimates for the volume development of the Swedish unit in the coming years. As we commented regarding the first won contract, the newly won contract also serves as a good reference, and the extensive project may offer additional opportunities for the company in the future.
CEO’s review from last week’s General Meeting! 
GRK’s new investor website was launched today! You can explore the new website here: https://sijoittajat.grk.fi/fi/
The website features:
a refreshed visual identity
a clarified investor story
new key figures data
a more comprehensive shareholder data view, including management holdings
Have a great weekend everyone!
Based on DI’s information, Stegra has secured its funding round. This naturally removes uncertainty regarding GRK’s year-end work on the project.
“I’ve understood from GRK’s comments that in Stegra’s case, they weren’t particularly concerned about their receivables. These are generally well-secured in the payment milestone system commonly used in infrastructure construction, as long as the contractor doesn’t voluntarily start acting as a financier for a developer in distress. In a normal situation, payments come in as sub-units are completed, and when the money stops flowing, work also stops quite quickly. Therefore, the uncertainty has primarily focused on whether the work agreed upon for the end of the year will be completed – as you also stated.”
Kauppalehti reported today that the Wallenbergs opened their wallets and 1.4 billion changed hands. Thus, concerns regarding GRK truly disappeared.
Atte’s pre-comments as GRK releases its Q1 results on Tuesday, May 5.
We expect the company’s revenue and operating profit to decline significantly compared to the exceptionally strong comparison period, when more favorable weather conditions and the progress of major projects boosted earnings to a level atypically high for an infrastructure builder. In the report, our attention is particularly focused on the development of the order backlog. We believe the company will reiterate its guidance at this stage of the year.
Here are Atte’s quick comments on this morning’s results
GRK’s first-quarter results published this morning clearly exceeded our expectations, driven by excellent profitability. Revenue declined from the comparison period as expected, but relative profitability even improved slightly from a strong comparison period. At the same time, the company’s order book rose to a record level, particularly due to new orders in Sweden. GRK reiterated its guidance for 2026 in line with our expectations. Considering the better-than-expected performance in the first quarter and the strong order book, there is preliminary upward pressure on our forecasts.
And following up, here are also Atte’s comments on the infrastructure contract won by GRK
GRK CEO Mika Mäenpää was interviewed by Atte.
Topics:
00:00 Introduction
00:11 Q1 highlights
00:40 Profitability at a strong level
01:09 Projects in the development phase
02:08 Stegra project
02:44 Green transition projects in Northern Sweden
03:27 Effects of geopolitical tensions
04:45 Data center projects
05:16 Substation market
06:40 Expansion into Southern Sweden
07:24 Swedish market dynamics
08:00 Competitive landscape
Why is there so little discussion about GRK here?
Here is a new company report on the company from Atte following Q1.
GRK’s seasonally slow first quarter turned out to be clearly stronger than we anticipated in terms of profitability. Due to the high order backlog, Stegra’s successful financing round, and a healthy project portfolio, we believe the outlook for the rest of the year is strong. Additionally, we identify several growing segments in private demand, such as green transition projects and data centers, which are likely to bring additional orders to the company in the coming quarters. We are raising the target price to EUR 15.0 (previously EUR 14.5) and our recommendation to Buy (previously Accumulate).
Quoted from the report:
Quarterly fluctuation in cash flow
GRK’s operative free cash flow for the quarter was EUR -12.5 million (Q1/25 EUR 46.0 million). The cash flow, which was clearly weaker than the comparison period, was affected by the lower volume of the quarter and, consequently, reduced payments received from customers. Due to the nature of GRK’s project business, significant seasonal variation in cash flow is typical, and the development of profit and cash flow can be significantly divergent on a quarterly level.
Shhh.. the best investments are found in the quiet threads I’m still hoping to load up more in the future, so shall we keep this as our secret?
The report was admittedly surprisingly good. The order backlog is at record levels, even though both the analyst and the company had guided for a more normal year. Who knows, we might even see a positive profit warning towards the end of the year. Of course, the range is already quite wide, so it would likely require a fair amount of unexpected order intake to exceed it.
In the long run, however, it looks like a promising company in a dull market to me. It fits my own preferences well.
Similar thoughts here. If the current order backlog is recognized as revenue in line with the company’s expectations, the lower end of the revenue guidance seems practically secured in light of the Q1 results. Consequently, positive surprises are not ruled out if the rest of the year develops more favorably than my own expectations.