Well, the general opinion has been that Fortum’s risk anticipation and risk management completely failed, so the parties involved will not get any whitewash for the Uniper blunders.
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Rauramo has done a lot to stabilize the company’s operations. And it was certainly needed.
The new strategy seems to be characteristic of a cautious leader. The path is visible, focusing only on profitability… There will be no investments into uncharted territory.
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Here is a link to Kemijoki Oy’s pumped-hydro power plant project.
We are not talking about a small plant, as a 550 MW plant is being planned, with an estimated price tag of
600-800 million.
These hydropower-related projects have faced significant headwinds in recent decades, but the benefit/detriment ratio for this plant, compared to a traditional run-of-river power plant, would be enormous.
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Rumors are circulating in the market again: FT: Fortum havittelee Uniperin tuottoisia Ruotsin-voimaloita | HS.fi
The last sentence of the article does create a certain pessimism for me, that even if the opportunity arose, a takeover bid might not be made: “The newspaper also ponders whether Fortum’s main owner, i.e., the Finnish state, would be interested in going shopping for Uniper.”
And @Pappa_Tunturi, I corrected my calculations with the information you provided over in the coffee room 
I’ll also link the original news headline, if someone wants to pay for FT’s reading rights, actually 1 euro for a four-week trial period isn’t bad: Client Challenge
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And Fortum does not have any pre-emptive right, as claimed in the Helsingin Sanomat article, but “Fortum has the primary right to make a purchase offer for them until the end of 2026.”
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And it is also possible that only a part of Uniper’s Swedish power plants will be offered. For example, nuclear power. Germany’s new government is calling the shots in this matter as Uniper’s owner, and on the other hand, it intends to sell off the entire Uniper (several parties have registered as potential buyers for the whole company).
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OP estimates Uniper’s Swedish hydro and nuclear power to be worth 5-6 billion EUR
https://x.com/zijoittaja/status/1911745759378014517?t=IveAfGTp9y0-snN6LsWtag&s=19
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Here are Kinnunen’s pre-earnings thoughts, as Fortum publishes its Q1 results on Tuesday.
The earnings, while seasonally strong in Q1, continue their downward trend, against the backdrop of a clear decrease in electricity prices from the comparison period. However, we expect the Q1 result to have been relatively strong, which is partly based on our assumption of high-priced hedges being weighted towards the beginning of the year. Electricity futures for upcoming quarters and the next few years have decreased since the previous review point, weighing down the earnings outlook. We made small negative adjustments to the earnings forecast, focusing especially on Q1 forecasts, but we will review longer-term forecasts more broadly only after the earnings release.
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First, I need to explain my new picture. Most will notice that it doesn’t depict an old man, but rather a youthful image of Susanna Hoffs, whom I once (and still) liked very much. Moped riding started to bore me in our dreary climate.
It seems that our top analyst @Juha_Kinnunen always triggers a new consensus, which appeared today. Juha has a surprisingly optimistic forecast for Q1/25 
Achieved price:
Fortum is clearly achieving stability in its operations, which makes forecasting easier. This time, I examined the production figures a bit more closely. Production in Sweden is pretty much the same as last year, but in Finland, we are slightly below the curve for hydro and nuclear power. Wind power has been abundant in Q1.
Using fuzzy logic, I would say that Q1 is expected to perform quite close to Q4/2024 levels. The achieved price is lower, but production is slightly higher than in Q4. Q1/24 production is significantly smaller when compared to Finland’s total production.
In the coming years, only dividends of €0.60-0.80 are expected. However, this level is better than Elisa’s equivalent. Elisa is a indebted company and distributes all its profits.
I considered selling my pot when we were above 15.60. However, I didn’t do it now, because according to Uncle @Masse, a good hobby is always worth paying a little for 
It’s about profits and electricity prices. Futures are pointing downwards, and wind power is cannibalizing prices. My guess is that at these prices, we will see a wave of bankruptcies among wind power companies in the coming years.
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Did that dividend pot empty so thoroughly that next year we won’t even reach a €1 dividend?
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Wind power is indeed such that when it is abundantly available, the euro yield is low if it is sold at the market price. However, the prospects for electricity demand growth are strong. Those much-talked-about data centers are now in high demand.
I asked Chat-GPT about it, and they are popping up like mushrooms after rain.
Below are articles listed by Chat-GPT on the topic. Some are behind a paywall.
I see it this way: the strong growth of wind power is precisely based on the strong belief that the increase in energy consumption will maintain profitability also in the future. Of course, if the wind turns in these investments, the situation could be different.
As my own view, I also see the US’s stubbornness in trade policy and Europe’s need to internalize strategic resources, along with the growing power demand of AI applications, will only accelerate this trend. Finland has all the prerequisites to attract more energy-intensive industry, due to factors such as:
- Stable political environment and peaceful society
- High level of education
- Low average electricity price on a European scale
- Stable bedrock, meaning earthquakes are rare
- NATO membership (although its impact may diminish in the coming years due to the US)
So, I wouldn’t throw in the towel regarding the success of wind power just yet. It is certainly not without its challenges.
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Fortum has agreed to acquire Orange Energia Sp. z o.o., a Polish electricity solutions provider, from Orange Polska S.A. The debt-free purchase price is a maximum of approximately PLN 120 million (approximately EUR 28 million). As part of the agreement, Fortum will continue to sell electricity and related digital services through Orange Polska’s nationwide retail network until at least the end of 2028, which significantly strengthens Fortum’s commercial position and growth opportunities in Poland. Approximately PLN 90 million (approximately EUR 21 million) of the purchase price will be paid upon the closing of the transaction, estimated to be in June or July 2025. An additional earn-out agreed in connection with the transaction will be paid based on the achievement of electricity sales volume targets by early 2029. The completion of the transaction is subject to customary conditions.
The acquisition supports Fortum’s strategic priorities: to be a reliable supplier of clean energy, to promote customers’ transition from fossil to emission-free energy, and to foster renewal and development. Fortum’s digital platform and established position as a provider of clean energy solutions enable the utilization of synergies brought by the transaction and the improvement of operational profitability.
Orange Energia is one of Poland’s largest private electricity retailers with approximately 130,000 customers. The customer base consists of households and small and medium-sized enterprises, which strengthens Fortum’s position as an established provider of electricity solutions among SMEs. In 2024, Orange Energia supplied 495 GWh of electricity, and the company’s EBITDA was -PLN 22 million (approximately -EUR 5 million). EBITDA was negatively impacted by the electricity price cap set in Poland. The company has approximately 70 employees. The transaction will not affect Orange Energia’s customers’ current contracts.
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Why did Fortum buy a company from Poland that is losing money?
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Is that just an electricity seller or also a producer? Regards
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Good question! How do they intend to turn the situation into something beneficial for Fortum’s owners? They mention Fortum’s digital platform. How does this improve profitability?
Another question: why did Fortum buy a company in a country where the government, to gain popularity, can and does set a price cap on the commodity being traded?
Unfortunately, this gives the feeling that the situation has already been experienced once with a company bought in a neighboring country of Poland. Taavetti refers to the ability to anticipate matters independent of the company.
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Strong achieved electricity price due to successful optimization of electricity production
January-March 2025
- Comparable EBITDA was EUR 538 (622) million.
- Comparable operating profit was EUR 462 (530) million.
- Operating profit was EUR 470 (571) million.
- Comparable earnings per share was EUR 0.42 (0.48).
- Earnings per share was EUR 0.40 (0.53).
- Cash flow from operations was EUR 453 (538) million.
Summary of outlook
- Estimated hedges for Nordic production in the Generation segment: for the remainder of 2025 approximately 75% at EUR 40/MWh, and for 2026 approximately 50% at EUR 41/MWh.
- UPDATED: The annual optimisation margin included in the achieved electricity price for 2025 is estimated to be EUR 7-9/MWh (previously EUR 6-8/MWh).
- Investments for 2025-2027 are estimated to be approximately EUR 1.4 billion (including maintenance, but excluding acquisitions), of which annual growth investments are estimated to be EUR 150-300 million and annual maintenance investments EUR 250 million.
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I’d even call this a semi-jytky (jytky). Net debt 13 million.
Incredible price achieved, and my forecast was quite off regarding this. Otherwise, it was spot on. We’ll get rich with this after all
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The most interesting sentence in Inderes’ robot analyst’s observations was this:
”the outlook was reported to be moderately positive, provided that industrial projects proceed as planned”
And additionally, the initial reaction from Fortum’s second main market, Sweden:
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Here is Markus’s interview. At the end, I asked about the Poland acquisition and how it relates to the overall picture.
00:00 Fortum’s development
01:35 Optimization premium
02:40 Efficiency program
03:15 Electricity market development
04:01 Data center projects
05:48 Uniper’s power plants
06:45 Orange Energy acquisition
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