Fortnox is coming, is Talenom ready?

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It’s good to mention at the start that the main source was this:

This wasn’t the only source, of course; I visited various sites, I’ve familiarized myself with the industry, and checked out the company’s own pages, but as mentioned, without Lucas Mattsson’s material, I wouldn’t have done this. :slight_smile:

I am responsible for any misunderstandings and errors in the text below, as I may have misunderstood something, etc.


Fortnox is a leading Swedish company providing enterprise resource planning systems (ERP :grimacing:, a swear-word acronym to me), focusing particularly on the needs of small and medium-sized enterprises. The company’s success has largely been based on its offering of cloud-based software solutions, which include accounting, invoicing, payment, and financial services, etc. Fortnox has been able to meet the modern needs of the market, moving from “folder-notebook-abacus” platforms toward digital and cloud-based solutions.

Fortnox’s growth story can be divided into three significant phases:

  1. 2001-2010: The company’s early years were challenging. Fortnox struggled with losses and a failed international expansion (sounds like a Finnish firm), which slowed down development.

  2. 2011-2019: Fortnox began to grow profitably and was able to significantly increase its market share. The company benefited from an expanded product range and was able to scale its business.

  3. 2020-2023: Fortnox focused on inorganic growth, executing five acquisitions to expand its product portfolio. This strategy further strengthened the company’s position in the market.

Fortnox has also been impressive in terms of revenue, with growth averaging 37 percent annually over the last decade. The company’s profitability has also been significant, as its EBIT margin has risen from 17 percent to 41 percent in the period 2014-2023.

The scalability of the business model is in good shape, as are the gross margins: over 90 percent. Additionally, Fortnox has managed to keep its return on equity (ROE) at an average of 51 percent and return on invested capital (ROIC) at 43 percent.

The growth of Fortnox’s customer base has been a significant driver of revenue, but in recent years, increasing revenue per customer has also become more important; they probably keep pushing additional services at a steady pace. The expansion of the company’s product range and high switching costs have strengthened Fortnox’s competitive position in the market.

Fortnox’s share value has grown substantially—between 2014 and 2024, the share price rose by approximately 7,285 percent (when taking dividends into account), which corresponds to an average of 49 percent annually. “They can’t go up anymore,” said Rookie (Alokas), while looking at the “Magnificent Seven” stock prices in 2019.

In brief:

Fortnox has established its position as a leading player in the Swedish ERP market, especially among small and medium-sized enterprises. The company’s strategy focuses on growing the customer base and expanding the product range, which enables its continued strong growth and long-term shareholder value creation. One would believe that a company like this would succeed better in internationalization in the long run; a strong foundation and inorganic momentum, and that’s that. :slight_smile:


Q2/2024

(I apologize for the clumsiness in the table below. Figures are in “million SEK” unless otherwise mentioned.)

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OMXHGI is included in this image, but isn’t visible because it’s almost a flat line. :smiley:

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EDIT:

I think that @lucas.mattsson will be happy to answer questions. Questions can probably be asked in English or Swedish. :slight_smile:

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Lauri Nikula has written his own piece on Fortnox. :slight_smile:

Fortnox’s valuation is high, as is typical for many growth stocks. The P/E ratio based on the 2024 earnings per share forecast is 55.0. The stock’s price risk is high, and it is not suitable for risk-averse investors.

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I’ve been thinking about opening a thread for Fortnox for a long time, so it’s great that it has now been opened.

Let’s add the 2023 annual report here: https://a.storyblok.com/f/134143/x/f48e6df012/fortnox_annual-and-sustainability-report-2023.pdf

And Q2: https://a.storyblok.com/f/134143/x/db735291e6/fortnox_q2-2024-eng.pdf

Noteworthy news from recent months includes the departure of CEO Tommy Eklund:

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Q3 2024

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Fortnox reported record-breaking customer growth in the third quarter, which also boosted the share price.

The company aims to reach 700,000 customers by 2025, although the recession poses challenges. “We are not giving up on the goal, but we need a bit of tailwind”, says acting CEO Roger Hartelius.

https://x.com/Quality_stocksA/status/1849376988768649290

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Prices raised again. Fortnox has on Thursday sent out information to its customers about price increases. The new prices apply from today, January 30, for new and additional orders. For existing licenses, the new prices will only apply when a new contract period starts from March 1.

I don’t own RedeEye credentials, so I went ahead and picked out the most essential prices / month (SEK) myself. Other increases have also been made across services. The increases are substantial YoY. Partial repackaging makes YoY comparison difficult, but Sole and Packages for accounting firms should at least be quite comparable.

The thesis of continuous price increases is thus holding up well, which is what my investment case, at this valuation, is largely based on, at least for me.

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The good development of margins could also be expected to continue this year.

fortnox-ab-publ-fnox

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The weekly cup and handle broke upwards the day before yesterday. Yesterday, the volume was the highest since 5.12.

Are there any owners here? This came up in the screener when I had a lot of time and little energy during my sick leave. The company has almost always traded at really high multiples. What does the company’s future really look like; can the upward trend continue?

Looking at the share price and valuation, similar situations have indeed looked like quite good buying opportunities. There are many things to like about the company, but I don’t know if the valuation is one of them :smiley:

fortnox

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Acquisition offer for Fortnox by EQT and First Craft.

Offer 90 SEK/share.

https://fortnoxgroup.com/nyhetsrum/uttalande-fran-styrelsen-i-fortnox-med-anledning-av-det-offentliga-uppkopserbjudandet-fran-eqt-x-och-first-kraft

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No wonder the insiders bought heavily last year. Luckily, me too :slight_smile:

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Well, yeah, it seemed like a pretty good shopping spot at this point too. The company, though, got forgotten somewhere in my notes after the post :grinning:

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Hi,

Can someone smarter confirm, but doesn’t Fortnox offer about a 5.5% arbitrage return at the current price of SEK 85.24 compared to the tender offer? Do you see any greater risk here that the tender offer would not materialize?

I’m no wiser, but the gap indeed seems quite wide considering that the buyer is not some unknown fly-by-night fund, management and the main owner recommend approval, etc.

I myself am waiting for levels above 89 kronor before selling or letting it go to redemption, in my opinion it’s quite safe to trade with this if one wants to take some interim profit home, I do think that the profit will narrow significantly after that general meeting.

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I still had to return to my own writing about Fortnox from April 2021 and see how my predictions turned out:

  • I predicted Fortnox’s profit would quintuple from 2020 to 2025. According to analysts’ forecasts, Fortnox will make a profit of 857 million kronor this year. In 2020, the profit was 205 million. So, just over 4x, but not quite 5x.

  • One reason for this is my own prediction about Offerta. Not even Fortnox managed to achieve any major synergy benefits in revenue, which tells quite well how difficult it really is to create value through acquisitions. Fortnox already had over 350,000 customers back then, while Offerta only had a couple of thousand – yet cross-selling was not a walk in the park. Now, over 40% more people have used Offerta’s service than in March 2021, but I did expect the number to be much higher.

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  • I floated the idea of expanding outside Sweden later. Well, it certainly didn’t happen through Talenom :grin: But now that EQT is coming in through the acquisition, will Fortnox be scaled internationally? Really interesting to follow.

  • I talked several times with Fortnox’s then-CEO, Tommy Eklund, back in the day. He was of the opinion that the hybrid model was not the right direction, and that Talenom lacked the necessary developer power compared to Fortnox’s army of coders. Looking back – that prediction didn’t go completely wrong, did it? :thinking:

  • Will Fortnox be relisted someday when the company’s business is international? Capman & Harvia 2.0 :wink:

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Two significant owners seem to have rejected the takeover bid. It will be interesting to see what happens in the end, but if it doesn’t go through, one would expect the stock to be available significantly cheaper compared to the current price.

Link to DI’s article (behind a paywall) where the matter is thoroughly discussed.

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