Exel Composites

https://www.inderes.fi/fi/yhtiot/exel-composites

Let’s discuss Exel Composites company here.
The company’s performance has been quite a rollercoaster, but at least Seligson’s funds (Phoenix and Phoebus) believe in the company as they have increased their ownership.

What do forum members think of Exel?

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https://www.seligson.fi/resource/seligson_rahastot_4-2018.pdf?v=1548745341801
Here’s a link to Seligson’s interim report, which provides the rationale for acquiring Exel into the Phoenix fund.

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@DayTraderXL Could you comment on Exel from a TA perspective?

@jambo


“Falling knife”
Looking at it on a weekly level, a quite clear downtrend channel can be drawn, which has currently turned into a horizontal movement. This could be the first sign of finding bottoms, but it is not enough to confirm it.

  • attention is drawn to the strong selling volume that began last autumn, which has practically grown towards this period
  • for a turnaround to occur, institutional buyers with enough purchasing power to turn the price around would need to be found. Otherwise, Exel may continue this horizontal consolidation for a long time.


On a daily level, consolidation is clearly visible (low 3.92 and high 4.49)

  • it is positive that the price is above ema12 and ema26, in the middle of the BB
  • RSI is 54 (neutral), I drew a trend line along which a potential rise should proceed
  • MACD has made a so-called bull cross, indicating the beginning of an upward movement
  • there is not much RSI divergence at the moment, i.e., neutral

The biggest problem with Exel is that it no longer has any sensible support level if 3.92 breaks.

  • a stop-loss should be placed quite tightly below it, as there is a danger that larger selling waves will be triggered at that point and the plunge will continue strongly downwards (if you already have a position)

For me to consider buying this for a long position, that weekly turnaround would have to happen. This would mean that on a daily level, 4.49 would be broken, and then the rise would end at a new Higher Low (HL), which would be max. 30% below the previous HL, somewhere around 4.3. After that, the price should start to rise, exceeding the previously made HL. The first stop buy order could be made upon crossing that HL, and then scaling according to further development.

  • the stop-loss would then be around the HL of 4.3, depending on risk tolerance. It could then be moved upwards as the price rises.

This is a very quick analysis at the end of the evening.

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Thank you so much for taking the time to check out the case! This is a great help for me when considering possible additional purchases! :slight_smile:

https://www.inderes.fi/fi/tiedotteet/exel-composites-oyjn-liiketoimintakatsaus-tammi-maaliskuulta-2019-vahvaa-kasvua

Good performance in Q1

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There might also be a tailwind from within the country in the wind power sector:

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Someone made a nice little trade of 200,000 shares at an average price of 4.22.

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ESN has been selling Exel Composites for a year now. However, it seems that the broker is not currently visible on the screen.

At the same time, a few larger trades have been made with the same stock, and OP (Osuuspankki) previously flagged an increase in ownership.

I wonder if ESN’s remaining sellable shares will go directly to OP..

https://www.inderes.fi/fi/tiedotteet/exel-composites-oyjn-puolivuosikatsaus-tammi-kesakuu-2019-liiketoiminnan-volyymi-pysyi

Good work in Q2 :+1:

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Where did this sudden 7% rise come from today?

The Allure of Pikku Gurun?

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Maybe​:grinning_face: That did cross my mind too

Also a news item from Kauppalehti:

"Currently, the cheapest growth on the Helsinki Stock Exchange, based on the PEG ratio, is offered by Exel Composites, with a coefficient of only 0.08. If the company succeeds even partially in its growth targets, the stock already has significant upside potential.

Exel’s earnings per share were 0.14 euros last year, but analysts expect them to rise to 0.34 euros this year and still to 0.48 euros next year. At the same time, the share price has fallen by 25.6 percent in a year."

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@Verneri_Pulkkinen

Does Holdings’ ownership data tell us anything new? A lot of shares are being sold at the moment, also via SEB.

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This exel stock price drop from five euros, where it went back to 4.30, is really interesting.
There was a big hype with Arvoguru and the Kauppalehti article, but now apparently the drop is due to big funds selling. Why is this? They must have better information than me, and that’s why I’m a bit nervous about adding more of this… In itself, nothing has changed in the company to justify this stock price drop…

Last updates on 30.9. and no major changes then.

{“content”:“The hype on all possible forums and in the media has been overblown, given the signs of recession. Small investors bought Exel first at five euros and then down from there. Next week, profit warnings will start to come in. Will small investors still dare to buy this stock when sales continue? Did the Gurus already sell?”,“target_locale”:“en”}

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https://www.kauppalehti.fi/uutiset/tuulivoiman-rakentaminen-on-saksassa-kaytannossa-jaissa-ilmastotavoitteisiin-vaikea-paasta/fba5ac54-f75a-4587-9e90-d1fd50f6e7ac

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Due to the hype, I started to get interested in this stock, but I’ve only just scratched the surface.

Things that make me wonder:
Has anything happened here that would make the ship particularly turn compared to the last 10 years? The same CEO has been in charge for at least 5 years.

Low capital requirement and semi-bulk industry? Sounds like a bad combination. From what I understand about carbon fiber work, even a skilled hobbyist can make their own carbon fiber parts in their garage…

No visible main owner, is management driving growth or maximizing shareholder value?

I’ll have to look into it more, it’s cheap if the forecasts even come close… :thinking: