Evolution AB - The King of iGaming

Malta, that gift of tax planning to Europe and perhaps even the whole world, published a new innovative corporate tax system at the beginning of the month: instead of a company paying an effective tax of 5% under the current imputation system, it can now choose an optional alternative to pay 15% upfront instead. The Prime Minister lauded this in the newspaper and stated that 10 companies could practically pay an additional billion annually to Malta’s beautiful island and government. One must also commit to this for at least 5 years, and it is not allowed to switch back to the old 5% system during that time. In terms of turnover, Evolution would also fall within the scope of opportunities brought by this new “program”.

One might wonder, what’s the point of this? But as background, one must remember the OECD minimum tax regulation, which was also implemented as an EU directive and set a 15% minimum level for corporate tax for large multinational companies. However, the Prime Minister was quick to state that this 15% tax has nothing to do with the 15% minimum tax, which Malta does not intend to implement in the coming years. Malta’s current Minister of Finance has long, and recently also representatives of the government and opposition in a united front, spoken, to put it bluntly, about circumventing it, or in other words, securing Malta’s competitiveness and attractiveness.

https://newsbook.com.mt/en/maltas-mps-unite-in-defence-of-tax-regime-at-eu-symposium/

As I have written before, this is entirely possible within the framework of minimum tax regulations through so-called Qualified Refundable Tax Credits (QTRC), which are treated as income and do not lead to additional taxation, even if the effective tax rate falls significantly below 15%. For example, after the minimum tax came into force, Hungary apparently came up with the idea of giving 50% of the research and development costs of companies operating in the country as such refunds, which lowered the minimum tax to around 5%. Many countries, such as Switzerland, Luxembourg, Singapore, and the Caribbean islands, have created or are creating similar mechanisms to remain competitive.

The only tricky thing in their practical implementation concerned only the nature of tax refunds: according to the regulation, they must be directly redeemable for cash. Malta’s tax authority would therefore need billions in cash so that it could, well, give billions back in cash to companies and thus wipe the effective tax rate towards zero. I noted that this new corporate tax would be quite suitable as a first step in such an implementation. Especially its commitment obligation would secure such a cash flow to finance the system. Evolution has significant economic activity in Malta: product development, a large studio, and all IP assets, against which it would be easy to grant these cash-redeemable credits and bring the tax rate back to its previous levels. We await further information from the Maltese, most likely the entire corporate tax package will be unveiled next month in connection with the budget.

59 Likes

Evolution has launched a new slot brand/studio: Sneakyslots

An interesting opening that it’s built organically from scratch - let’s hope it gets off to a good start with Evolution’s big distribution mill :crossed_fingers:

15 Likes

When will the Galaxy Gaming deal go through? Was it said over a year ago that it would be H2 2025? And nothing more specific has probably been said about it.

Edit.

https://www.investing.com/news/sec-filings/galaxy-gaming-merger-deadline-with-evolution-extended-to-october-18-93CH-4146629

Apparently, it should happen by October 18, if the necessary approvals are obtained. And it could go into 2026.

6 Likes

It’s being discussed on Twitter that EVO has apparently now suspended share buybacks, and they will resume after the Q3 earnings report. This also happened with Q1 (but not with Q2), and I strongly fear that the suspension is because the earnings report will be terrible and a stock price drop is to be expected. This is exactly what happened with the Q1 earnings report as well.

6 Likes

Or could it just be that those purchases are made quite disciplinedly at a steady pace. Of the 500 M€ budget, only 94 M€ remains unused. On September 1st, 2/3 of the purchase budget had been used, while 8 months of the year is 66.6666%, exactly 2/3.

In September, shares were purchased such that only 94 M€, or 18.8%, of the money is still available. If we count the days from the Q3 earnings report on October 23rd to the end of the year, those days represent 18.9% of the days in 2025.

Perhaps it’s not worth being too bearish. Those purchases are truly made according to a specific program. No one there is taking any view, but rather executing a given mandate within the limits allowed by the stock exchange.

46 Likes

Well, if a terrible quarter is known, then a negative profit warning should have already been issued. Of course, there’s always some leeway in those.

2 Likes

https://igamingbusiness.com/legal-compliance/chancellor-gambling-operators-pay-tax/\n\n\nIn Britain, they are considering whether taxes should be raised. For this reason, there is apparently pressure

4 Likes

Reeves’ conference speech: a swipe at a rival and a signal that major tax rises are coming | ITV News

The background situation is that the British economy is in decline. Labour has committed not to raise VAT (at least not in this parliamentary term), but more tax euros, or in this case pounds, need to be squeezed from somewhere. Economic growth is not in sight, and thus taxes are not growing through growth, and the deficit between expenditures and revenues is only increasing. As a Labour party, that money should be given to areas that serve Britons, but perhaps especially please their own voter base, or otherwise, the next elections will go badly.

More than 100 Labour MPs urge Chancellor to hike gambling taxes and scrap two child benefit limit | ITV News

Now, on September 25th, over 100 Labour MPs sent him a letter demanding, among other things, the removal of the child benefit cap tied to the number of children and an increase in gambling taxation. Gambling is an easy target, as no one defends it except the industry’s interest groups and lobbyists. However, fortunately, there is also the risk behind tax increases that the industry in question will move its operations from Britain elsewhere. An organization representing various forms of betting has, for example, lobbied heavily against this in the summer, stating that a potential increase would only move the business away from Britain and reduce tax revenues completely contrary to the objective if taxes are raised.

Labour MPs urge Reeves to hike gambling taxes and scrap two-child benefit limit | ITV News - YouTube

In the interview (at 2:15), Reeves defends himself and states that he did have his own investigations underway, dismissing the letter from his own party’s representatives in a clear “no need to shout, things are being handled” spirit.

It is now clear that if ITV asks in an interview whether taxes should be raised, the Chancellor must respond that this industry needs to pay its fair share of taxes. Otherwise, a direct war will be started with his own representatives.

This Evolution (stock/company) is such a stock that all news, except for a positive earnings warning, tends to lower its price. One just has to sit on their hands. This news is again a good indication that if yesterday’s stock price drop was due to this British news, Reeves couldn’t have responded anything else given that background. What actually happens is a completely different matter. And it must be noted that he also understands the risk if taxes are raised, which is why his comment was not in the spirit of “likely” or “yes” but rather behind the mantra of “fair share,” which could equally mean the current level of taxation.

25 Likes

Significant movement and trading, but no news or announcement… Will the swarm intelligence find something new?

1 Like

@Nalle2 Found the news

18 Likes

The initial reaction at least seems too significant given the already low valuation level; it’s a pity it didn’t quite reach the 725 kr level. Surely another partner will be found for it, but this underlines the unpredictable nature of those markets.

1 Like

For this company, panic is certainly triggered by every little sound. The intensity of the initial reaction is probably about ten times what one would think just by reading the news. :smiley:

29 Likes

It also says there that “there is no issue with the studio”. And what would be the revenue from that particular client even if the whole place went bust? From a market value of 1.5 billion euros, 45 million was lost as a result of this news. It’s sensitive. I could be completely wrong and losers average losers, but it smells like a buying opportunity.

6 Likes

Quite a sharp downgrade from JP Morgan:

“Investing.com - JPMorgan downgraded Evolution Gaming Group AB (STO:EVO) (OTC:EVGGF) from Neutral to Underweight and lowered its price target to SEK675.00 from SEK830.00.

The downgrade reflects JPMorgan’s more cautious stance on Evolution Gaming shares due to expectations of “structurally lower growth” in coming years, which the firm believes is not adequately reflected in current consensus estimates.”

https://www.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/jpmorgan-downgrades-evolution-gaming-stock-to-underweight-on-growth-concerns-93CH-4269696

I assume that today we will see a significant decline again, driven by this news.

20 Likes

LTM P/E 11.13 according to Nordnet, so what kind of growth does JPM think is priced into that then? :sweat_smile:

17 Likes

I was laughing at the same thing. It says there that:

“JPMorgan values Evolution Gaming on a sum-of-the-parts basis, implying a one-year forward target multiple of approximately 7.0x versus the current 9.5x, which the firm considers warranted given “ongoing growth and margin reset in the midst of regulatory pressures.”“

PE 9.5 is apparently too much and needs to be lowered to a forward-looking PE of 7. Those are the multiples of some pulp mill, but so what as long as the business performs.

40 Likes

P/E 7x with zero growth corresponds to a long-term return of 14.2%. Growth is then an option on top of that. No big deal, if the market wants to push the price down there, I’ll definitely take at least half of my portfolio in the stock :smiley:

52 Likes

Mielenkiintoinen uutinen uhkapelaamisen- ja vedonlyönnin alan Earnings+More uutiskirjeessä:

Sen mukaan Las Vegas Sands sulkee sen digitaalisen laajentumisen hankkeen, joka pyrki erityisesti live-kasinomarkkinalle. Hankkeeseen käyttiin puoli miljardia dollaria, se työllisti 400 ihmistä ja Bulgariaankin oli ilmeisesti rakennettu iso live-kasinostudio. Lähteiden mukaan koko projekti päätettiin kuitenkin yllättäen lopettaa ja kuopata viime viikolla.

“In the end [the management] decided the regulatory risk of competing with Evolution was not worth killing the golden goose,” said the source who spoke to E+M on condition of anonymity.

For LVS, the retreat reaffirms its role as a land-based purist. By shuttering SDS, Sands avoids potential clashes with regulators wary of cross-channel conflicts and sidesteps a bruising fight with Evolution.

But it also surrenders what could have been a rare disruptive shot in online casino supply. “They had the games, the IP, even interest from major operators. But in the end, they blinked,” said one source.

65 Likes

I wonder if I’m thinking about this completely wrong, as that action only strengthens the perception that even if there’s a very wealthy entity (LVS in this case), Evolution is seen as so powerful that it’s not sensible from a business perspective to challenge it. The AI agreed with me on the decisions – I didn’t guide the AI to any conclusion, I just asked for an analysis of what can be concluded about Evolution’s market position based on this.

Especially regarding regulation, one could easily think that LVS would see all online revenue as risky from a regulatory perspective, but what is likely meant there is positive, i.e., EVO’s offered “safety” in that regard and thus its attractiveness as a partner. For a new operator, the risk is whether they can truly handle the same KYC hassle while also running a profitable business.

Based on the article, the following assessments can be made regarding Evolution AB’s market position:

  • Market Leadership in Live Casinos: LVS’s withdrawal from the SDS project suggests that Evolution’s position as a live casino provider is so strong that competing with it was deemed too risky. This reinforces Evolution’s status as the industry’s “golden goose.”

  • Regulatory Safety and Trust: Evolution’s established position and regulatory compliance make it a safe partner for operators, unlike new entrants whose business models might raise suspicions among authorities.

  • Expansion into RNG Games: The launch of the Sneaky Slots studio indicates that Evolution aims to strengthen its position also in the slot games segment, where it has not been as strong as in live casinos. This can bring additional growth and diversify the offering.

  • Strength of Distribution Network: Evolution’s ability to leverage existing brands (such as NetEnt, Red Tiger, Big Time Gaming) and distribution channels gives the new studio an advantage that new operators do not have.

In summary, Evolution AB’s market position is very strong, especially in the live casino segment, and the company is now strategically and controllably expanding into RNG games. LVS’s withdrawal further strengthens Evolution’s position.

23 Likes

I would personally view that news as fundamentally being a double-edged sword. LVS’s withdrawal from the live casino market is absolutely positive for Evolution’s position, but the withdrawal indicates that the gambling regulatory market has become very difficult, which has been strongly indicated by Evolution’s recent stumbles.

Of course, it could be that Las Vegas Sands’ primary concern (a stone in the sand, as it’s a desert) has been how regulation progresses in cases where the company has both land-based operations and these live casinos. Would operating live casino games have led to problems in the company’s crown jewel, i.e., operating land-based casinos? In that case, this case can be seen as excellent news for Evolution, because it probably also prevents competition from other operators who operate land-based casinos (and who would have the resources and credibility to set up a similar competing venture). So the moat is in place on that side.

27 Likes