Evolution AB - The King of iGaming

In the US, at least, they are pumping nitro

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Dismal global regulatory development is currently the biggest decelerator of the gambling industry’s growth. Or perhaps better formulated, a driver of activity to the forbidden/black market, because global gambling is indeed growing, but in a less regulated market. As the latest example, India banned all gambling in practice within a few days. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-passes-bill-ban-money-based-online-games-app-shutdowns-loom-2025-08-21/ More on the topic, for example, in Regulus Partners’ Winning Post newsletter, which can be recommended to those interested in the industry’s legislative developments. In the latest message received today via email, there were also interesting reflections on the twists and turns of the US Prediction market. In itself, no significant impact on Evo, but it may partly explain valuation levels and weak sentiment.

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The live casino developer Evolution and gambling supplier Hacksaw, along with several other companies, have been sued by the Los Angeles city attorney on allegations of forming an illegal gambling ring, according to the website Readwrite.

The companies are suspected of operating or contributing to the operation of an illegal online gambling ring, which, according to the site’s information, constitutes a violation of California law.

Tämmöstä syytöstä tällä kertaa

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And here’s a link to the news, it seems to concern mainly a Californian casino again and not the game developer, i.e., Evo.

https://next.io/news/casino/la-sues-stake-us-suppliers-for-running-illegal-gambling-business/

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“Like turning a page in a book I’ve already read.”

As I’ve mentioned before: it feels really far-fetched that an outfit like Evolution would, in all its foolishness, have knowingly participated in

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https://next.io/news/casino/evolution-pragmatic-exit-stake-us-california/

=> According to the article, EVO and other game providers have decided to stop offering games to California on the stake.us (sweepstake) site. This will at least increase the share of regulated revenue..

EDIT: From Hacksaw’s IPO, I found that their sweepstake share of revenue was 5% in 2024, and California’s share is probably at most around one percent. This could therefore, in a worst-case scenario, push EVO’s RNG revenue growth into negative territory (Q2 growth was only 0.3%)

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Is this the same shitty company that advertises in Formula 1 races? One would think this is positive news, as operating with such a company has been terrible reputational damage for EVO :smiley:

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Yes, it’s the same company, but Stake has two different branches: stake.com (legal and playable directly with money), and stake.us (operates in a gray area in the USA; this kind of activity can be legally conducted with very specific specs), where you can play but not directly with money stakes. Instead, you have to buy the casino’s own currency, which you play with and which can apparently be exchanged back into money somehow.

Now, only the offering from the Stake.us site was blocked, and only for Californian players.

I would venture to say that Stake.com is even EVO’s largest single customer (at least on the RNG side), excluding aggregators, so they certainly can’t afford to lose this customer relationship, even though I also agree about the company.

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Evo’s stock has been falling quite a bit again lately. Are these having major impacts, as the price seems terribly sensitive to various news?

For years, Evo’s stock has reacted very strongly to all neutral or negative news, regardless of their veracity. The industry is challenging, and the gray market, in particular, causes uncertainty.

On the other hand, if one looks at Evo’s business, it’s not exactly in perfect shape either.

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Things are happening in the market; EVO’s biggest competitor is withdrawing completely from the Sweepstakes market in the US. The article estimates that they might start competing in the regulated US markets, where they are not involved at all yet.

We’ll see if EVO follows suit; apparently, Pragmatic’s offerings will go dark on September 8th. EVO’s market share in sweepstakes will grow significantly if they stay, but I assume they will follow suit due to, among other things, reputational damage and potential lawsuits.

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What do you mean by growth challenges and that it wouldn’t be continuous? At least if you look at the annual report for the last five years, growth has been very clear?

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Growth has stopped this year. I don’t remember the exact figures, but Evo had grown something like 10 years QoQ, and now that streak has stopped. I also recall that management promised growth would continue in Q4/25 and that Q3 would still be weak.

The full material here: https://www.evolution.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/EVO-Q2-2025-Presentation.pdf

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Ok, so the earnings streak seems to have broken, but I wouldn’t yet declare the growth trend ended based on a couple of quarters.

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Skolnick v. Evolution AB

Sullivan & Cromwell Wins Dismissal of Securities Litigation Against Sweden’s Evolution AB | Sullivan & Cromwell LLP

The entire lawsuit has now been dismissed in its entirety (September 5, 2025). The accusations were related to securities fraud.

Win one, take on three new ones…

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Recent iGaming news for a rainy day:

”Beyond Brazil, Evolution is closely monitoring Argentina, Mexico, Colombia, and other emerging regulated markets across the continent. Each presents distinct opportunities, but Brazil’s scale and regulatory momentum make it the central pillar of Evolution’s regional plan.”

“The biggest challenge is that regulation, culture, player habits, and infrastructure differ sharply across regions on the continent. This makes focus on localised live dealer content essential. Online video slots remain the dominant product in terms of volume and engagement, and they will continue to drive growth.”

Proposal for the 2026 economic package:

https://next.io/news/regulation/mexico-proposes-gambling-tax-increase/

And a couple of days old nemesis news:

https://next.io/news/casino/black-cube-given-one-week-reveal-client/

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Playtech’s H1 came out yesterday, the CEO gave a rather vague answer when an analyst asked about the Black Cube report :grinning_face_with_smiling_eyes:. According to articles, EVO itself has said that it suspects a competitor, so the most logical would indeed be either Pragmatic or Playtech - let’s see if we ever find out

EDIT: The CEO lives in Israel and is apparently Israeli, it does smell a bit..

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A bit clumsy from Playtech. But, even though Playtech’s revenue is +90% from regulated markets and EVO is a big competitor - the short report/accusations, button eyes, and Playtech’s B2B efforts could be pure coincidence. Heh.

“We successfully reached an agreement to sell Snaitech to Flutter Entertainment, delivering significant value to our shareholders while enabling Playtech to refocus predominantly on its core strengths as a pure-play B2B business, added Weizer.”

A public link between the parties is unlikely to be found, or at least I haven’t found one yet, but hopefully, that party will be revealed through the court. The waiting time is long as a famine year, but whether Matti or Teppo is behind it all, according to this chart, EVO’s bars look quite good anyway, even though the stock price has recently crawled a bit closer to the homeland:

https://x.com/MarienLechevin/status/1962523539359027532

P.S. Greenvale’s shorts are now 0.7%, and I noticed that on 9/9/25, a company like this came out of the closet with a 0.51% share:

Total shorts: 4.78%

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Possible expansion into the on-premise market. An interesting rumor at this stage.

https://casinobeats.com/2025/09/16/gaming-arts-evolution-land-based-slots/

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Press release

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