This thread is a continuation of the comment: Euroopan turvallisuustilanne ja Venäjän aggressiot (Osa 2) - #10484 käyttäjältä niko_naakka - Sijoittaminen - Inderes forum.
Previous threads:
“According to the company, the electricity required for the operation of the Russian-occupied power plant is currently being produced by diesel generators, which have enough fuel for 10 days.”
As I understand it, the reactors have been shut down, but their cooling still requires external energy.
https://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-zaporizhzhia-iaea-idAFL1N35H0TJ
“This is the sixth time – let me say it again sixth time, that ZNPP has lost all off-site power and has had to operate in this emergency mode,” Grossi told the board’s quarterly meeting, according to an IAEA statement.
No certainty about the video’s authenticity or source; it could even be false flag narratives etc., or the truth lies elsewhere. If it is genuine material, then from small streams etc. Take it with a grain of salt.
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1633800195971350532?s=20
Commander of the Ground Forces, Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi on Telegram:
Translation:
"The relevance of holding Bakhmut continues to grow.
Each day of the city’s defense gives us time to build up reserves and prepare for future offensive operations.
At the same time, in the battle for this fortress, the enemy is losing the most trained and formidable part of its army – the Wagner assault units.
Prigozhin’s statements confirm once again that after the capture of Bakhmut by the Wagnerites, the enemy’s hands would be untied and they would be able to launch a large-scale offensive using army and paratrooper units with combat equipment.
This once again proves the extremely important role of BAKHMUT in our group’s overall defense system.
The thousands of enemies who died in the assault on the city – this is clear confirmation.
I am proud of the courage and heroism of our warriors, who disrupt the aggressor’s plans with their persistence.
The battle in the Bakhmut direction continues. The enemy threw the most trained Wagner units into the fight. At the same time, our defenders are managing to inflict significant losses on the enemy – both in personnel and military equipment.
Each day of continued resistance gives us valuable time to degrade the enemy’s offensive forces."
Spotted on Facebook:
We armchair generals have been discussing this quite well here! 
That nuclear power plant has been in cold shutdown since the autumn of 2022, and the massive body of water associated with the reactor is sufficient to handle the minimal heat coming from the fuel rods. Talk of a nuclear catastrophe is Ukrainian propaganda that the tabloid media swallows hook, line, and sinker, because readers find nuclear power scary and it generates a lot of clicks. So, there is no need to clear the stores of iodine tablets this time either 
This time (too), the comments came from the mouth of IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi:
“Each time we are rolling a dice. And if we allow this to continue time after time then one day our luck will run out,” Grossi told the IAEA’s 35-nation Board of Governors.”
In a sense, you are right that the use of backup generators does not pose an immediate danger. However, shelling and missile strikes into and from the area do.
If you read the linked article, you would notice that the talk of a global radiation catastrophe came from Ukraine’s Energoatom, which has obvious interests in exaggerating the danger.
The head of the IAEA, on the other hand, showed moderate indignation that nuclear power plants are being attacked, even though according to international agreements, they should be left outside of military operations. Of course, bombing a nuclear power plant and power outages are not completely risk-free, but realistically, nothing truly serious can happen to a VVER-1000 in its current state without deliberate sabotage by Russia.
Decay heat is certainly lower than immediately after the reactor shutdown, but even a larger volume of water heats up and will eventually boil that water. Reaching the boiling point can take from days to weeks, but without cooling, it will eventually happen. Below is a diagram showing that spent fuel produces decay heat for a very long time, and the danger exists as long as the normal heat dissipation is less than the heat produced. Someone can calculate and estimate how long the danger exists if they wish, but I know that it has not yet disappeared in such a short time.
I didn’t know how to add a source link on my phone, but the source can be found by googling “ydinvoimalaitostekniikan perusteita” (basics of nuclear power plant technology) and downloading the book found on the STUK website.
I did read both, and I wouldn’t call Grossi’s indignation quite moderate. He warns of the dangers just as much as Energoatom. So, Grossi’s words are an exaggeration?
Some good news for a change. Ukraine managed to release 130 of its captured fighters. 
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1633241719591272449?s=20
Enemy losses from the day before yesterday.
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1633241723148148741?s=20
Yesterday’s tally.
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1633595890010128384?s=20
Training for Ukrainian pilots on F-16 fighters is estimated to take only 3 months. There would be no lack of motivation among the participants.
https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1633639626685521920
https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1633639628237426691
If this is true, the T-90 is not faring very well in Ukraine. And Western tanks aren’t even on the front lines yet.
https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1633221367691718657
Sandberg’s Nuclear Safety (Ydinturvallisuus) is the most cited nuclear engineering book in Finland, but it is not completely flawless, so it shouldn’t be read as absolute gospel 
The point of the message was that we are talking about such incredibly long timeframes now that it would require active inaction from Russia, i.e., a conscious decision to cause a nuclear accident. These “10 days to catastrophe” headlines in Iltalehti are total garbage. We’re not talking about Fukushima here, but about the decay heat of a pressurized water reactor (PWR) plant with good safety features that has been in cold shutdown for over six months. If we were to speculate on a scenario where Russia completely neglected decay heat management, even the water boiling wouldn’t be an immediate problem, because phase changes in water require a massive amount of energy, and that water vapor also condenses back into water.
If we went further, even the melting of fuel rods wouldn’t actually cause a serious nuclear accident, but at most localized radioactive releases, and the damage would be primarily economic (panic evacuations, loss of grain sales, and loss of nuclear power plants). If some babushka failed to evacuate and had time to receive a small dose, I’ll just state that the harmfulness of small radiation doses to health cannot even be conclusively proven. If you disagree, you should order a radon measurement for your home, because Finns are exposed to an exceptional amount of radiation in their own homes, and it’s actually a greater radiation risk to live in a Finnish detached house than next door to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant 
As a clever fellow, you can also calculate an indicative figure for it yourself quite easily with this simple formula 
Every time something happens to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, Energoatom screams about a potential nuclear radiation holocaust (that’s their job), and Grossi releases a condemnatory but balanced statement calling for both sides to stop attacking the nuclear power plant and hoping for the creation of a demilitarized zone around the plant (that’s his job). This has been repeated so many times now that those sensationalist nuclear disaster headlines in the yellow press are starting to get genuinely tiring. If you don’t see any difference between these statements, then unfortunately I cannot help you.
Russia has become active on Suursaari.
Edit: it was actually a year ago. In any case, we should keep in mind the significance of the island in question in a conflict situation. Missiles could easily reach Helsinki from there. That location should be neutralized /immediately.
https://twitter.com/akihheikkinen/status/1633767013486141441?t=D7SgBXAmnCDYG3swYCF-gg&s=19
Darth Putin, who always has his finger on the pulse, tells us what to expect here as well if the problem isn’t fixed in time.
https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/1633892503773487105?t=FB2zn9D197dQ3zrIV1ACIQ&s=19
I wouldn’t exactly share the civilian bombings of the Second World War; the Red Army didn’t particularly distinguish itself in those compared to others..
https://twitter.com/niinisto/status/1633898523090382848?s=46&t=Si2h6AhWRHIXEh6WCej0qg
Had coffee 
EDIT: here is the other side, if anyone is interested for some reason:
https://twitter.com/potus/status/1633897950110785536?s=46&t=Si2h6AhWRHIXEh6WCej0qg
Not really with bombings, but with artillery though.
Hindsight is the most accurate of sciences. The war has now been blustered about and commented on for over a year. It might be good to evaluate who has guessed, deduced, or known the direction of events correctly.
For example, this: Lännen sotilaallista väliintuloa Ukrainaan ei voi poissulkea, sanoi Jussi Halla-aho – pääministeri Marin: "kovasti sanottu" valiokunnan puheenjohtajalta | Yle
While I don’t share—or support—all his views, it must be said that Jussi is a thoughtful politician.
Russian strikes penetrating Ukraine’s missile defense as effectively as they did (81/34) surprised at least me. I understood that the West has recently invested particularly in improving Ukraine’s air defense, but either there isn’t enough air defense equipment, they don’t know how to use it, or Russia has used its new hypersonic missiles which are difficult to intercept. If and when Russia is using its latest missiles, it is quite strange that the West cannot even give Poland and Slovakia’s old MiG-29 aircraft (30-50) to Ukraine. No training would be needed; they would be ready for use immediately. They would hardly change the balance of power very much—if at all—but if we just watch the destruction of civilians day after day and don’t do enough, then maybe it would be better to start preparing Ukraine for territorial concessions behind the scenes. This is morally bankrupt, but that is how the West is currently operating.
I am not a warmonger—far from it—but if the Ukrainians want to defend themselves—as it seems—they should be given sufficient tools to do so. It is untenable to think that Russia would ultimately conquer the areas it wants after everything the West has already invested in Ukraine’s defense.
Intercepting ballistic missiles is very difficult. I read somewhere that some of the ballistic missiles fired at Kharkiv and Kyiv were reportedly launched from relatively close to the Ukrainian border, making the missile’s flight time about a minute. Even those who are more alert would have to be quite quick in that situation.
According to this IL story, US support for Ukraine ends in the summer, with no explanation given. Does anyone know if the journalist is clueless or if this is actually based on something? I recall Biden saying several times “as long as it takes.” The top Republican leadership agrees.
“According to Nikkei’s investigation, the Academy of Military Sciences’ modeling may be pro-Russian to please the Chinese government. However, the war ending in the summer of 2023 is one possible outcome, as significant US support for Ukraine ends in the summer, and there is no certainty yet regarding the continuation of support.”
