Europe's security situation and Russian aggression (Part 4)

Three points:

1. Respect other participants, be professional. Do not be provoked.

2. No comments that do not add value to the discussion; gut-feeling assertions, opinions, etc. The popularity of the thread has declined, but it is still read a lot; put effort into every message you post.

3. Facts and arguments speak for themselves; there is no need for typical internet raging.

Thank you!

Previous threads:

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A timeline of how the Russian leadership has communicated the events in Kursk to its people. Worth a read.

https://x.com/khodorkovsky_en/status/1824315131708289331

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After the swap, the terrorist state would continue destroying Ukraine from where it left off before the exchange. All kinds of swaps and peace agreements based on concessions should be the first things to forget when dealing with that menace. Ukraine can only defend itself against destruction by all available means; anything else is fulfilling the aggressor’s goals.

As for Kaliningrad, it is a side plot that is being kept in discussions mainly for distraction purposes. The area is extremely important to the terrorist state both strategically and militarily, and therefore it will not give it up without a fight, let alone exchange it for anything—unless it gets something significantly better in return. Such territorial swaps should not be entered into with an aggressor at war.

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Alaudinov: RF armed forces control the situation in the Kursk direction (tass.ru)

You can read those on TASS in real-time; quoted from the article, machine-translated: “The situation in the Kursk direction is normal, under the control of Russian forces, and intensive work to destroy units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) is underway. This was stated to TASS by Major General Apty Alaudinov, Deputy Chief of the Main Military-Political Directorate of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and Commander of the Akhmat special forces.”

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Yeah, it was mostly a joke. Russia isn’t going to give up Kaliningrad anyway, even though Europe would surely be happy to have it. Let Ukraine rather take back its land and let’s assist in that :+1:

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Khodorkovsky seems to oppose the war in Ukraine at least to some extent, but shows no sympathy or empathy for Ukraine in his writings. His focus is always on Russia and Russians, as well as on opposing Putin’s regime. Such behavior does not improve the image of the Russian opposition or the prospect of the situation fundamentally changing for the better, even if Putler were to be ousted.

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the image is from at least 2017

https://sell-off.livejournal.com/23680650.html

the image is indeed used from time to time to prove that there are protests in Kaliningrad, most recently about a year ago
https://www.reddit.com/r/EuropeanFederalists/comments/13cond8/many_citizens_of_kaliningrad_want_to_secede_from/

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It’s interesting, by the way, why Ukraine didn’t fully exploit the collapse of the Russian border line in the Kursk direction. Was it due to a shortage of manpower, caution, or a desire to have the civilian population evacuate the area first? At the very least, the large number of prisoners of war caused difficulties.

BBC’s story from Moscow:

https://x.com/BBCSteveR/status/1823838152144118068

Sky News at the border:

Russia has released a video where possibly one Challenger 2, potentially abandoned with its hatch open, explodes. It doesn’t have the kind of blowout ammunition compartments that the Leo 2 has, for example.


The Ukrainians have apparently reached the flanks of Korenevo and are partially behind it.

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The Russian narrative is insidious in the sense that: whoever crosses the border is always the one who started the war. This, however, does not apply to Russia because Russia has a special operation.
Now they are claiming it’s NATO special forces, and with this, Russia can gain an advantage in mobilization.
Too bad it’s no longer of any use; the front lines aren’t really moving anymore at this stage even if they got every man to the front, because the equipment is crap and there isn’t enough of it.

“First time since the Second World War that territory has been taken from Russia”

This is truly a victory for Ukraine! Russian prisoners have been taken on Russian soil and the front has been weakened by the amount of reserves moved. Is this what they are taking to the negotiating table?
Ukraine has had many days to move reserves into the area and dig in.

https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2024/08/16/white-house-confirms-russia-redeploying-troops-from-frontline-to-kursk-region-en-news

One railway line is now cut, so Russian logistics will at least struggle from the north — in the south, they probably have enough to deal with just with front-line reinforcements.

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“Fighting in the Kursk region continues for the second week, and the Ukrainian offensive shows no signs of waning. At the same pace, a mood of panic is rising among the Russian elite.

Tanks roll across the border and territories are lost – the Kremlin’s response shocks Russians

Five ordinary Russians tell Iltalehti their opinions on the Ukrainian offensive in Kursk and Russia’s reaction to it.

  • The true situational picture of the Ukrainian attack on Kursk is not revealed to Russians.
  • Russia is forcing conscripts to the front lines to repel the attack. Putin’s and Russia’s official line since the start of the war of aggression has been that Russian conscripts do not participate in battles with Ukraine.
  • They never tell the truth.
  • Olga says she is disappointed in the Kremlin for enabling the Ukrainian attack. She is also tired of a war that feels endless.
  • War fatigue is also visible in the city of Samara, located about 800 kilometers east of Moscow on the banks of the Volga River.
  • At first Putin was nowhere to be found, but then he said that this is the situation. Every day after that, it is said that we are crushing the enemy, everything is fine, everything is going according to plan.
  • The Kremlin’s support for those forced to leave their homes is non-existent. In exchange for the loss of work and home, they receive 10,000 rubles (about 100 euros). It is a mockery of those from whom everything has been taken, says Dima.
  • They never fight themselves, there are always others in their place instead. And they themselves sit in comfort and shovel money, Tatyana says of Russia’s rulers.
  • Everything went exactly the opposite way. Instead of Kyiv being captured in three days, the war came to those who voted for it, says Tatyana.
  • Worried about the future
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A few days ago there was a Ukrainian strike on the bridge over the Seym river, Kursk region, Glushkovo

Yesterday the bridge over the Seym river in Glushkovo, Kursk region was targeted ones again. Two new holes in the middle of the bridge are visible. Light vehicles still can move.

https://x.com/Tendar/status/1824054030164721782

To visualize the situation in the Glushkovo district of the Kursk region of Russia.

Approximately 700km^2 of land are surrounded from all sides: Ukrainian state border from the south and west; Ukrainian controlled territory of the Kursk region from the east; and the 70-100 meter wide Seym river and swamps from the north.

Only three bridges are connecting this bit of land. One in Glushkovo, second in Zbannoe, third in Karyzh.

If to cut of those bridges Russians will end up in a situation similar to what we saw on the right bank of the Kherson region, when Antonovsky bridge and Kakhovka dam bridge were damaged.

Russian logistics will be possible only by ferries or pontoon bridges (which can be challenging less then a dozen pkg from the frontline). Or through Korenevo, which is yet controlled by Russians but Ukrainian forces are getting closer day by day.

Russians report that AFU have started fighting for Kolychevka northwest of Korenevo

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Ukraine’s Kursk operation and access to the Russian railway network systems have had … logistical impacts. Apparently, all freight train traffic between Belarus and Russia is at a standstill, at least in the direction of Smolensk and Kursk. I’ve read somewhere that Ukraine could potentially view the schedules of all (the whole of Russia’s?) trains from the systems of the captured stations, but I don’t know if that’s true. If it is… it could be used to schedule attacks against trains.

A breakthrough by the Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) in the Kursk region has led to a significant collapse in railway operations across Russia. The central office of Russian Railways (RZhD) has urgently contacted the Belarusian railway operator, demanding a halt to the dispatching of freight trains.

https://uawire.org/ukrainian-breakthrough-in-kursk-region-paralyzes-russian-railway-network

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Fake news or is it real?

nimetön

https://x.com/Bricktop_NAFO/status/1824381751218651517

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Näin homma alkoi Avaamassa suomalaisten rakentamaa koulua Ukrainassa | Kai Mykkänen

Ja näin se tänään päättyi

katsaps today destroyed the first and only “green school” in Ukraine

It was created on the basis of the 21st school in Antonivka, Kherson region with the support of the Finnish government back in 2016.

It was attacked twice in half a day.

The video shows what it was like and what it looks like now.

https://x.com/aborealis940/status/1824406530235515052?t=Am1IAOOYdTVAS13u6t09QA&s=19

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More bad news for Russia as China reduces its dependence on coal and gas by 5% a year:

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The Seym River Bridge at Glushkovo has been destroyed

The bridge is between Rylsk and Tetkino, connecting the main Russian GLOC between the logistic hub in Rylsk and the defensive node of Tetkino on the 1991 state border of Ukraine and Russia

Roman Alekhin says that the bridge has just been destroyed, and Ukrainian Liberation Forces are implementing the plan to isolate the Glushkovo district.

Location of the Glushkovo bridge

700 Russian soldiers are potentially in a “cauldron” in Glushkovo and Glushkovo district.

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Pro-Russian sources have been speculating for some time that now that the Russian defense is blocking progress to the north, northeast, and east, an attempt will be made to eliminate that western bulge and thereby facilitate Ukraine’s defense on Russian soil:

kuva

These aren’t exactly high-value areas, but it’s where it’s easiest to exploit Russian weakness and try to encircle troops, as well as create a larger buffer zone on the Russian side.

There is still some time to move before the weather starts to interfere with offensive operations:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oUsyvo1J-bI

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Footage of the Ukrainian military dropping the Seim river bridge at Glushkovo, Kursk Oblast, earlier today
https://x.com/JimmySecUK/status/1824506783416958996

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Putin monitoring the development of the war.

https://x.com/Bricktop_NAFO/status/1823370927133880762

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Ryan O’Leary highlights well how poorly Ukrainian troops have dug defensive positions and how this complicates the defense now that the strongest positions dug over the years have been lost. This enables Russia’s current pace of advance, even though on paper, the conditions for an advance do not exist.

kuva
https://x.com/RyanO_ChosenCoy/status/1824485581612568635

Attempts have been made to spread this “gospel of digging” through songs and other campaigns, but there is no helping it when utterly exhausted and mentally distressed soldiers simply refuse to spend all their free time at the end of a shovel.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s9rljnSnIH8

In Russia, things are just as bad regarding the infantry, but they have dedicated units with earthmoving machinery and logistical organizations, which allows for the creation of defensive lines much more efficiently.

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