Pekka Kallioniemi also writes about this border theory
https://twitter.com/P_Kallioniemi/status/1727283714328002725
We should start thinking more like the Kremlin so that we can predict Russia’s future moves. Actions that simultaneously harm democracies while benefiting Russia are the so-called “sweet spots” that Putin and his lackeys look for in geopolitics.
What I find problematic here is that the interpretation of the law surely shouldn’t be affected by the nationality of the applicants. There have been concerns about whether some might perhaps be Wagner mercenaries. What if, in the future, they are all undisguisedly Russian citizens and fit young men? If they know how to say the magic word “asylum,” what justifies denying entry under current legislation? Hopefully, a change will be made to this quickly, even by declaring a state of emergency. As it stands, this is completely childish hair-splitting. Finland cannot be held responsible for the safety of those seeking entry outside its borders in this situation. This is most clearly a state of emergency caused by a hostile state waging a war of aggression through its own actions. If we think naively that Finland is responsible for the distress of everyone outside its borders, one might ask why Finland didn’t organize more evacuations of, for example, Afghan women to Finland. Now these non-evacuated women are truly suffering under the Taliban regime.
Edit: Finland didn’t even bring in all those who assisted us, who in practice have or had a death sentence stamped on their foreheads. Somehow this flourishing double standard pisses me off, even if we are going by the book.
All sane men of military service age have already fled Russia, so the theory of closing the border as a “Berlin Wall” doesn’t quite hold water; of course, new age cohorts liable for military service are constantly emerging in Russia. Detentions and rapid pushbacks are the key factor now, along with word spreading on social media about this.
Elsewhere on the front, the clock is ticking:
https://twitter.com/astraiaintel/status/1727286668494025028
The latest US aid package includes a single HIMARS system; it has been suspected that it has been modified for GLSDB launches. Earlier this autumn, it emerged that it is not compatible with the standard launcher after all, but would instead require a dedicated platform.
The whole concept of applying for asylum and the right to asylum should be completely overhauled. The intention is good, but why should an Iraqi, a Yemeni, or a Syrian supposedly have the right to apply for asylum in Finland at the border with Russia? After all, they are already in Russia, meaning they are safe from the wars and persecution in their home country on the basis of which they are seeking asylum.
This “border theory” is complete nonsense. Russian border authorities decide who is allowed past the barriers. They wouldn’t let Russians through who are so-called “wanted” for military conscription.
Feel free to try crossing from Finland to Russia if the defense forces have you “flagged” in their records? Border guards will certainly stop you when they check your papers.
Could escapees try through the terrain? Maybe, but in Russia, the border zone is vast and, as I understand it, it is monitored, and if there is a will to stop these people there, the situation on the Finnish side doesn’t matter. If Finland is made to completely stop processing asylum applications and close the border, this might make the Russian colleagues’ job easier if they have to use force to stop those fleeing mobilization, but mainly just because those leaving would likely choose another direction if word got out that the Finnish border is closed.
A wad of cash tucked into the passport and this obstacle is gone. It could also be that they want people from the border guard for Ukraine next, meaning the guards themselves would be potential deserters. If Finland started guarding its border on its own, Russia could scale back its monitoring and transfer “resources” to Ukraine.
Hi!
Border-related topics are relevant to the discussion in many ways and are part of the big picture, fitting well under the thread’s title. However, it’s also true that some messages here drift off-topic or get bogged down in minor details. 
In this thread especially, even those who agree with each other are flagging each other—for reasons such as being off-topic, spam, inappropriate content, and so on. Sometimes someone may be right, but they express and justify their point in a way that works against their cause. So, it’s worth adjusting your style, especially if you start receiving flags.
The reality is that the thread is being read less than before, even though messages are pouring in quite heavily now. Regardless, the thread is still widely read, so if you post here, think about what substantive new information you are bringing, as a very large group of people still follows this thread regularly.
There has been discussion in private messages and elsewhere about whether certain posts belong in the Politics Corner (Politiikkanurkkaus). Some posts indeed should go there, as they stray quite far from the main topic into minor details, and many of those same points have already been covered in the Politics Corner dozens of times from the same perspective and in roughly the same way. We don’t mean that the same topic can’t be discussed in multiple threads, but you surely understand my point: it is always easiest to refrain from posting if you feel it doesn’t provide people with any new information or food for thought regarding this situation.
A few points:
No short quips that lack new information or a point. Even if it’s a spirited remark that everyone agrees with and gets 350 likes, it still doesn’t belong in the thread.
Some topics are better suited for the Politics Corner, but remember your manners there too—don’t aggressively repeat things that have already been said several times.
Flagging is done by all sorts of forum members. Even in political threads, those who agree with a post often flag it simply because they feel the message is inappropriate, useless, poorly argued, off-topic, or repetitive. Repeating the same things across different threads adds nothing new. If you are flagged multiple times, you should definitely consider how you can improve your writing.
If someone provokes you, don’t be provoked; ignore the poorly behaved. Don’t provoke others unnecessarily; it is more effective to state your case sensibly and logically while listening to the opposing side—in such cases, the other person is more likely to meet you halfway. The smarter person is definitely the one who doesn’t continue a useless argument—emotional bickering is different from a productive, content-rich debate.
In certain situations, if the conversation is stuck and nothing new is being added—only argumentative declarations—it’s best not to participate and instead continue the discussion with new messages.
The majority of messages are appropriate and provide new information, but lately, there has been a significant increase in off-topic messages, low-substance posts, and posts written in an inappropriate tone.
Many border-related issues belong here, but there have been messages that might be better suited for the Politics Corner in terms of content and style. Or perhaps some messages don’t need to be posted at all.
Late on weekend evenings, consider whether it’s worth expressing your emotions in this thread. We aren’t necessarily at our best when we’re emotional—whether behind the wheel or online on a weekend night.
We are all on the same side, and we stand with Ukraine. Let’s try to stay in harmony and aim for the level of discussion we’ve had here previously. I sound like a broken record repeating these things, but for the most part, things have gone very well in this thread.
This message isn’t directed at anyone specifically, but to all of us. This is a high-quality discussion forum, so let’s keep it that way. 
This is a bit of a messy, quickly written long message, so there might be some errors in thought, but as smart people, you likely understand the points.
Thanks to all readers and posters + have an exciting investment week!
Regards,
Moderation
According to Yle, 700 in November
The Deputy Chancellor of Justice has approved the proposal for restrictions on border crossing traffic. According to information from Helsingin Sanomat, only the Raja-Jooseppi border crossing point in Inari would remain open. Press conference in an hour at 19:00.
If the restrictions are approved, they would come into effect during the night between Thursday and Friday.
There is a certain number of people voluntarily practicing national defense.
Perhaps gun laws should be changed urgently. A rifle and a few boxes of cartridges at a state-subsidized price for all willing Finnish citizens, provided the citizen does not have a criminal record. A categorical ban on the registration of rifles, so that no register exists from which the enemy could spy on who is armed. And then a hundred million euros to support voluntary training. That should create such a deterrent that it wouldn’t be worth trying anything too sensational with just a small number of special forces.
Regarding this border crisis, I see an option in rotating which border crossings remain open at regular intervals. This way the border stays open, but planning to cross it on foot or by bicycle becomes quite impossible. When a particular station is less congested, it could be opened for a couple of days and then closed when the number of people being funneled into the country becomes unbearable. Those on the other side of the border would surely get tired of this runaround soon enough.
The world’s second-best army can’t get its weapons sold. Not. Even. One. Single. Gun.
https://twitter.com/MissionArtist/status/1727076155654799552?s=19
Let’s assume the theory about Russian mobilization and Finland’s borders is correct. The Kremlin’s think tank has given its best effort.
But they must be bewildered when an otherwise perfect plan falls flat because of Finland’s zealous Deputy Chancellor of Justice, who refuses to agree to a total closure of the borders.
Finnish fighters need night vision equipment.
Donate €10 to Your Finnish Friends
https://x.com/MJay_fly/status/1727304042093637979?s=20
I put in a little extra after finding the bank account through How you can help | Your Finnish Friends, because “you have to see them so that they can…” and it also motivated me that they organized this border operation!
Nothing wrong with the Ukrainian special forces hanging out there
https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1727262617872539823
Germany has updated the list of provided material support:
https://x.com/Tendar/status/1727421664613343593?s=20
Thread on war widow compensations in Russia:
https://x.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1727248667143483489?s=20
Avdiivka holds 
https://x.com/KyivIndependent/status/1727374509794078879?s=20
Bulgaria to provide armored personnel carriers, weapons, and spare parts, among others:
https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1727353905393328603?s=20
M2A2 Bradley in action:
https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1727461512959107415?s=20
SBU sniper set a new world record (3.8km):
https://x.com/KyivIndependent/status/1727381785955500097?s=20
According to Orpo, a total closure of the borders was not yet possible, so for now, we must settle for slowing down the inevitable progression of events as best as we can.
The Deputy Chancellor of Justice apparently decides alone when the situation is such that the processing of asylum applications can be stopped at the eastern border. I wonder if the situation could ever be such that a sovereign state is allowed to close its border points (e.g., after 10,000 asylum seekers? 50,000? 100,000?), or is seeking asylum a universal human right that transcends everything, a force of nature that one cannot even attempt to stop.
I wonder how the country’s top leadership views the situation after winter? If this continues in a similar fashion, the forests in the border region might see a lot of activity as entirely new opportunities for independent border crossings open up. It will probably matter very little whether any border crossing point is officially open or not.
An opportunity for a relatively safe and easy passage into the EU area has now opened up. In Finland, we can always hope that our neighbor returns to its old border practices, but what was it they said about hope as a strategy…
Below are the “headlines” from yesterday’s report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
You can read more about these “headline” stories from the link below.
Russian President Vladimir Putin reframed the Kremlin’s stance on the Israeli-Hamas war to a much more anti-Israel position in an attempt to demonstrate the supposed hypocrisy of Western condemnations of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Putin also reiterated boilerplate rhetoric falsely portraying Russia as willing to engage in meaningful negotiations, likely to pressure the West into prematurely pushing Ukraine to negotiate with Russia
US National Security Council Spokesperson John Kirby reported on November 21 that Iran is supplying Russia with glide bombs and that Iran may be preparing to transfer short-range ballistic missiles to Russia.
The Kremlin appears to be inexplicably concerned about the outcome of the upcoming March 2024 Russian presidential elections, despite apparent widespread Russian approval of Putin.
Russian Investigative Committee Head Alexander Bastrykin called for Russia to codify an unspecified state ideology in the Russian constitution, suggesting that some Russian officials may want to explicitly end nominal constitutional protections for civil rights, democratic pluralism, and ethnic equality.
Bastrykin has yet to detail what a potential Russian state ideology should be, although the Kremlin’s support for Russian ultranationalism would likely heavily influence any potential Russian state ideology.
Bloomberg reported on November 21 that the European Union (EU) proposed a plan to strengthen security commitments from EU member states to Ukraine.
Russian forces conducted a series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of November 21 to 22.
Russian milbloggers appear to be focusing renewed complaints against the Russian military command for what milbloggers perceive as poor choices that contribute to Russian casualties.
My parents like intangible Christmas gifts and supporting Ukraine is important to them, so I decided to invest the Christmas gift money in night vision devices.