Efecte Oyj - European Alternative to global goliaths

Let’s discuss Efecte Oyj here. It is an IT company offering SaaS (Software as a Service) services.

Efecte Oyj - For Investors

Inderes extensive company report 11.12.2017

Let’s start with a promising announcement: Efecte’s CEO Changes

“Progress in German operations has developed as planned, and the team we hired in the autumn is already in full swing. So far, several dozens of active sales projects have been initiated, which we believe will start to impact our revenue during the coming summer.”

That, in my opinion, is a very promising point.

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Isn’t a change in CEO usually a bad sign? Why replace a good one?

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Sakari was the acting CEO for five years, and now it seems Germany has won his heart! =)

“The company and Suhonen have consequently agreed that Suhonen’s employment will end at a later agreed time within this year.” Doesn’t sound like Germany took his heart, but rather that he was asked to leave.

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If the CEO had been allowed to leave immediately, one could assume there’s drama in the background. Now, though, the case will still drag on after the summer. It’s bad to speculate on these things!

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Didn’t Sakari move to Germany precisely to help Efecte conquer the market there? It’s a shame that he’s leaving; it causes uncertainty in a newly listed company. To me, it seemed that it wasn’t a firing, but rather a personal choice and a prioritization of his own life. And it’s possible that leading the company from Germany proved to be challenging after all. Hopefully, a competent person will be found to replace him.

It’s worth reading the release and Petri’s comment Efecten toimitusjohtajan vaihtumiseen ei liity suurta dramatiikkaa - Inderes

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I also recently jumped on the Efecte bandwagon. Hopefully, it doesn’t go wrong.

Inderes seems to see great potential in almost every company that produces SaaS-based solutions, because it is a scalable business and therefore high valuation multiples are allowed. Although the business is scalable, it doesn’t help at all if there is no other significant competitive advantage. As if SaaS services don’t compete on price. The bigger the company, the more it can drive prices down, and small companies like Efecte can no longer compete. Of course, in this transition phase, companies offering SaaS-based software can make a profit with a good margin, but it will not continue for years. However, Inderes assumes that current margins will be maintained and profits can only be realized years from now.

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Heeros, in my understanding, is an example from the Helsinki stock exchange of a failed SaaS company. Inderes once saw potential in the company too, but has since, I believe, withdrawn those forecasts. It would be great to hear what was learned most from that misfire so that the same mistake isn’t made later. There will surely be misfires again sometime, so I don’t see it in a bad light, but rather in a learning spirit: why did the forecasts fail?

Thank you for your comment. The SaaS model itself is certainly no guarantee of quality or a shortcut to success. We have discussed this topic in our SaaS-themed podcast, among other places. As you aptly write, in the SaaS model, the competitiveness of the product against other solutions is highly essential.

However, we believe that software companies operating with a SaaS model are significantly more interesting than so-called traditional software companies because the demand for SaaS-based software solutions is growing strongly, the SaaS business model is inherently more scalable than the traditional software business model (higher profitability potential), SaaS businesses capture a larger share of the value associated with software, and SaaS businesses are most often based on continuous, long-term contracts and customer relationships, as well as steady, highly predictable cash flow.

You mentioned Efecte as an example of a company that would be under pressure from intense price competition. In our assessment, the opposite is true, as Efecte’s competitiveness is precisely based on a combination of significantly lower total cost, higher flexibility, and a high-quality product from the customer’s perspective compared to competing solutions. That is why Efecte’s product competitiveness is strong, especially in mid-sized European customer accounts. For example, Efecte’s direct competitor, ServiceNow, typically does not even target mid-sized customer accounts due to the relatively high implementation costs of its product, but instead focuses on the largest companies. In global large accounts, factors such as a global delivery, service, and support network are crucial, which is naturally not a strength of Efecte, which is focused on Northern Europe. Furthermore, Efecte’s competitiveness against the largest global players is weakened by, for example, the narrowness of its distribution channel and sales resources, which means that the company’s brand awareness is not very broad. The company aims to address this through growth investments and focus.

The SaaS market is very much a winner-takes-all type of market, where the so-called first-mover gains a significant advantage over others. When investing in SaaS companies, it is therefore important to ascertain that the company’s product is competitive in its target market and that customer churn is as low as possible. In our assessment, both Efecte and Admicom among the publicly listed SaaS companies meet these conditions. For example, Heeroksen faces significantly tougher competition and a more mature market, which has reduced the company’s attractiveness.

Sincerely,

Petri Aho

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Thanks for the response, Petri! Please keep following good SaaS companies! Also, find us a foreign SaaS company worth investing in. Siltronic, for example, was an excellent pick from outside the Helsinki Stock Exchange. It would also be great to see Inderes in Sweden!

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To clarify further, I didn’t mean that Efecte is currently under intense price competition. In the future, once Efecte has been analyzed to be collecting profits, the price competition environment will be much tougher than it is now.

You stated that the SaaS market is a “winner-takes-it-all type,” and this is precisely what is essential here. As the SaaS market matures and companies operating with larger volumes increasingly compete in Efecte’s territory, Efecte’s sales margins will be under clear pressure, and collecting profits will not be nearly as easy in the future as it is now. For this reason, Efecte’s growth is a very essential factor at the moment and should be invested in. However, is the growth sufficient to achieve a strong enough market position? There is considerable uncertainty here.

The point of my previous message, however, was that too much potential is seen in the SaaS market for almost all companies in the sector. The same happened with Heeros, and Inderes was initially positive about this as well. With Efecte, it may, of course, be different, and I consider Efecte to be quite a potential company, but this is by no means a clear-cut case either.

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New CEO appointed and announced: Niilo Fredrikson

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An old Comptel employee! That bodes well. Hopefully it will be bought out from the stock market like Comptel! :smiley:

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Does anyone else think -7% is an overreaction today? Edit: Might be explained by the stock’s low visibility…

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Maybe the share price fell a little more than expected after the earnings report, especially since the price was up about 6% on Friday. Of course, a -7% drop might be a slight overreaction. The price is already correcting today. Let the price fluctuate :slight_smile:

The market seemed a bit scared by the unprofitable result.

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Regarding the previous messages, g3235286’s comments sparked some good thoughts and questions. Efecte is unlikely to be a guaranteed jackpot, but it’s a very promising growth company in a growing industry. It’s okay, and even necessary, to be skeptical about an investment target and to think for yourself, especially if you’ve invested your own money in a company :slight_smile:

I also own Efecte. I’m closely monitoring how expensive the growth investments become and what the growth rate is. The share price can fluctuate if it wants, and I still don’t expect profits from this company yet.

A -7% overreaction when the price rose sharply before that without any news or justification? We are still higher now than we were a while ago with forecasts that exceeded what actually materialized. So wouldn’t one assume there’s still plenty of room to fall? Or did the market price this so incorrectly earlier with better forecasts that, relative to forecasts, a negative earnings report gives reason to be higher? :smiley:

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We discussed Efecte with Aho in the morning live stream. Petri explains quite well on a flip chart in the morning live stream where Efecte’s growth investments stand and what to pay attention to. Still, the H1 growth rate was a bit of a disappointment for the analyst and for me personally.

P.S. It’s worth watching that flip chart if you own other SaaS companies!

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