A lovely phrase, “growing at double digits.” Q1 was already known, but that H1—and profitability too, despite the mix, made for a decent Q4 relative to expectations. I’ll be surprised if we don’t see a fairly green curve today.
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A turnaround finally seems to be in the works for DT. The most interesting part of the Q4 report was the bolded section regarding battery testing using TFT and the impressive growth related to it.
Fiscal year 2025 was volatile. Performance was weakened particularly by exchange rate fluctuations, the prolongation of regulatory approval processes for aviation computed tomography (CT) systems, and the renewal of our customers’ product portfolios. On a positive note, the regulatory bottleneck that slowed down aviation CT installations in Europe was resolved, and inventory buffers were cleared. The indirect effects of the Chinese healthcare reform subsided, and demand strengthened. Particularly gratifying and significant for our competitiveness was the 60 percent annual growth in TFT sales, driven by industrial applications—especially the battery industry—in China. This product portfolio will also bring future growth from medical and defense industry applications. We have now succeeded in building a comprehensive product and service portfolio for all digital X-ray detector applications, which will enable steadier and more predictable growth in the future.
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And following the part you bolded: “The product portfolio in question will also bring future growth from medical and defense industry applications.” So, has TFT opened up even surprisingly quickly in the medical field?
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There is indeed a lot of potential for scaling in the new strategy and this report. (AI-driven) software, services, expansions in the HW portfolio, etc. Horizontality, where different industries and their applications reinforce each other. Plenty of opportunity to get a bit more out of every account?
In my opinion, this is also currently “mispriced” 
..With this >10% H1 growth, we are actually ahead of not only last year, but also the year 2024. Even though EUR/USD was around 1.1 on average at that time. So, significant progress has been made, especially currency-adjusted, which might have been a bit overlooked by all of us. And back in 2024, the share price knocked on the 20 euro level a couple of times.
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In the Q3 interview, there was a comment regarding the effects of the trade war, stating that without the data center boom’s impact on components, more would have been sold in the medical segment during Q4, and this was expected to ease by Q1 as certain processes are brought in-house.
Has the bottleneck now cleared ahead of schedule, or is the expected benefit still to come on top of current performance in the future? If things progress as estimated back in Q3, that would be even more fantastic on top of everything.
This is presumably different from the regulatory bottleneck, which was also resolved?
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Iikka interviewed DT’s CEO Hannu Martola regarding Q4 and the company’s outlook, among other things. 
Topics:
00:00 Introduction
00:10 DT’s year 2025
01:54 Growth in the medical segment
02:45 Impacts of geopolitics
04:00 Security segment sales declined
06:13 India factory completed in December
06:44 Smiths Detection moved to private equity ownership
07:30 Development in the United States
08:00 TFT market is growing
08:52 CT transition at airports
09:11 Double-digit growth for H1
09:59 New strategy
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Hi @Juha_Kinnunen and thanks for the new DeeTee report 
I have a question regarding your forecasts for this year, as I find them pessimistic compared to expectations.
Are you baking some risk realizations into them / what kind?
For example, you forecast Q1 revenue growth to be at the lower end of the guidance (10.3%), even though CEO Martola said they would reach at least 10% growth EVEN IF one of the main application areas or regions were to fail contrary to expectations. What do you expect to fail / why?
Furthermore, for Q2 you forecast “only” 12.4% growth, so adjusted for currencies, do you expect the growth rate to slow down in Q2? Personally, I would imagine the growth rate accelerating further in Q2, so I’m interested to know if you are accounting for some risk realizations or headwinds coming from somewhere there as well?
Thanks in advance for the answers and have a good weekend
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After a week or two of “coexistence”, the 50-day average seems to be pulling ahead of the 200-day one, so maybe it’ll take off now..
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This rise in the share price over the last few days is not surprising in the slightest. It was pointed out several times in the thread after the Q3 earnings release and strategy update that the bar is now low for positive surprises. This will also happen with Revenio, Talenom, and Qt. People seem to throw in the towel when the share price decline has continued for long enough.
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It depends, of course, on whose expectations 
If EUR/USD and, through it, the Chinese renminbi remain at these levels, there will still be about a 5% headwind from currencies in Q1. So in practice, I am still forecasting over 15% growth for Q1, as the company naturally guides. That is a strong level for DT in itself, and I wouldn’t call it conservative, even though the drivers look good.
The Q2 forecast could well be on the low side, but visibility that far ahead isn’t great for the company either, and these are always difficult to predict. In recent years, surprises have been negative, and I think it’s good to keep expectations at a reasonable level. Still, even that 12% growth is quite high, but well within reach. Let’s see how things get started. One risk is the EUR/USD, which at times seemed to be strengthening more, but it hasn’t directly been factored into the forecasts.
My most conservative forecast is currently for Q4’26 (only +4%). I could certainly expect better there, but I’d rather raise it as visibility improves than lower it when things go wrong. The forecast trend has been constantly downward over the past year, so I’m trying at least to avoid that. However, there is no concrete visibility for the end of the year yet; DT’s visibility is limited to 3-6 months, and beyond that, there are targets and market trends. Of course, the CEO seemed confident about achieving 10% revenue growth in 2026 as well, compared to which my own forecast is moderate.
As stated in the reports, trust needs to be won back quarter by quarter. My own forecasts certainly reflect the fact that evidence is required before making significant upward adjustments. This was, in its own way, a conscious decision in the Q4 update as well. Let’s hope for better, of course, and the ‘buy’ recommendation could be well justified even with these forecasts.
Same to you!
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