Clear Blue Technologies - Off Grid solar power system

Let’s open a thread for Clear Blue Technologies International (CBLU, CBLU.V), as it seems there are several investors in the company on the forum. I currently have a relatively small position in it.

Clear Blue is a Canadian company that has developed an intelligent “off-the-grid” solar power system. Off-the-grid means bringing energy/electricity to locations that are not connected to the power grid.

Clear Blue has two main business areas:

Providing solutions primarily to developing countries, especially to Telecom operators (Building and electrifying base stations in locations where there is no power grid).

Electrifying various roads with solar energy in developed countries, in places where it would be particularly difficult or expensive to run power lines. The latest deal in Pennsylvania serves as an example (link later).

In the company’s own words, the business summarized:

Clear Blue is experiencing very good growth, but the company’s operations are still loss-making. However, several recent orders will significantly increase revenue, which will be seen in the Q4 2020 and Q1 2021 results. Here’s a link to the Q3 results presentation:

This Twitter thread also serves as a good introduction to the company. Please note that this was done a few weeks ago, so the market cap, in particular, has moved up from that point:

https://twitter.com/babyrageee/status/1331970481059196928

Clear Blue completed a financing round a while ago. What makes this interesting is that the CEO said in the Q3 earnings call that there was no need for additional funding and that they could operate on cash flow, but he did not directly rule out seeking financing for a large upcoming order, for example. No new announcements have been made since then, but one can expect such. The shift towards a SAAS-based billing model (EaaS) is also significant, as it will ensure steady revenue streams in the future.

https://www.clearbluetechnologies.com/en/timeline/clear-blue-technologies-announces-private-placement-led-by-echelon-wealth-partners

Other materials and links:

Latest deal:

https://www.clearbluetechnologies.com/en/timeline/clear-blues-illumient-smart-off-grid-lights-up-the-american-parkway-in-allentown-pennsylvania

CEO’s Q3 earnings call, which also includes an introduction to the company at the beginning:

32 Likes

Thanks for the excellent start! I had been looking for a thread for CBLU so that a few messages don’t get lost in the hustle and bustle of the energy thread (I own it).

15 Likes

Big thanks from here to the thread starter!

The terms of the latest financing round included a clause: “Option warrants are subject to an accelerated expiry option, whereby the company may trigger an accelerated 30-day expiry of the option rights if the closing price of the company’s common shares listed on the TSXV remains above $0.85 for 20 consecutive trading days.”

Is that a good or a bad thing?

4 Likes

Good opening. :ok_hand:Has anyone calculated the key figures for the next two or three years yet?

4 Likes

Thanks!

The company isn’t yet covered by any analysts, so I’ve been trying to put together some future outlooks myself. It’s not easy, but by looking at disclosed agreements and the company’s own reported bookings, one can try to get an idea, especially for revenue development. What makes this difficult is, in a way, the positive recurring revenues. From the outside, it’s hard to estimate from contracts what is one-time and what is continuous billing. However, if one analyzes through these agreements, they can find these significant figures.

  • An agreement to deliver 400 systems to Africa - the announced contract value is 5MUSD, of which approximately 1.5M will be recognized in Q4 2020 and 3.5M in Q1 2021. Additionally, the contract included an option to increase the number of systems up to 2000. At the same prices, the value of those 1600 additional systems would be 20M. This would then be recognized moving forward, perhaps starting already in 2021. In total, this would be a 25M contract, which would be a truly significant amount, clearly more than, for example, the entire revenue for 2020 will be. But, of course, it involves the significant uncertainty of whether the rest will be ordered. Everyone can guess what the probability is, but one could imagine that there is a real need for them, and if the first 400 are delivered successfully and the buyer still wants to invest, I would consider it quite likely that the additional order will come.

Of the other recent significant agreements, the most notable is American Parkway, a system to be delivered to Pennsylvania for a two-mile stretch of road, with an announced value of 650KUSD. What interests me greatly here is what stretch of road this will be installed on and if there are more similar needs there. From what I understand, American Parkway is quite a long road, so there’s plenty of distance, but on the other hand, I can’t imagine that Clear Blue’s system would be needed for the entire road’s lighting.

In addition to these, the company itself reported on its order backlog in connection with the Q3 reporting, for example, as follows. It’s good to note that the aforementioned deals were announced only after the Q3 reporting, so they are not included in it:

Based on these, I have tried to make some kind of estimate for 2021 revenue, to begin with. I will probably get roughly the same amount of revenue as in 2020 at the moment. But it might be missing some earlier contracts that will be recognized in 2021; I haven’t gone through the entire history.

I would say this is a case where the investment decision involves, in a way, extremely positive things, i.e., some good revenue with certainty, but also one has to take a view on whether they believe that more deals will come at the same pace as they have in the last 1-2 months, all the ones mentioned.

In addition, the additional financing was raised for a reason. The company has said that normal business operations do not require additional financing, so one can assume that this additional financing is indeed for some new investment. We may get more information about this soon.

I didn’t really manage to give a very good answer here myself. Perhaps someone else has been better at digging into the numbers and getting a more precise view:
:slightly_smiling_face:

Relative to the market cap, individual deals are very large, so positively thinking, 1-2 more such deals and we’ll be in a completely different league, but then of course one must remember that until such deals are announced, they are wishful thinking :smile:

16 Likes

Let’s raise more money then:

https://www.clearbluetechnologies.com/en/timeline/clear-blue-technologies-announces-upsizing-to-previously-announced-private-placement-to-4350-dollars-000

2 Likes

Here’s a link to the latest Financial Statement; the debts on page 15 are particularly interesting. An additional 2M has been taken this year, and point (iii) indicates that there are further provisions for at least three million. Money for these might not necessarily be raised through funding rounds yet, as the largest part of current loans is due in -23. However, it requires strong growth. More money than last year is being spent on salaries, product development, and debt payments. https://cdn.locomotive.works/sites/5ad64d97a2f4220ad9468eee/content_entry5bae32d414ad66121f406d90/5fb5067ccbc09b00acc4660a/files/Clearblue_FS_Q3_v4.pdf?1605699196

2 Likes

Well dug :+1: This is indeed a case where one has to have strong faith that the revenue will start to grow. Big deals have been secured recently, so I have good faith. The market is big, market cap is still small, but the operation is equally small and risky :smile: What’s interesting is that there are two very different markets: developing countries where the first telecom infra is being built. And developed countries where the system brings savings to difficult targets.

3 Likes

Jobs available, anyone?

5 Likes

CFO myös haussa. Ilmoituksessa puhutaan kivasta kasvuvauhdista :muscle:

As CFO of a publicly traded TSX-V small cap company, the company is expected to grow by 2-300% per year each year for the next few years. Additionally, growth through acquisition, international finance, and project based SPV and debt financing projects will be part of the job.

https://www.clearbluetechnologies.com/en/careers

6 Likes

2-300% that’s a wide range… :grinning_face: Oh well, I’m in, I’ll keep my eyes and ears open. This already seemed too good to be true.

3 Likes

200-300% that’s what it means according to my understanding. Those would be good growth numbers.

I also tried to find information on how many employees the company has to compare that 10 new installers search to. But of course, they won’t recruit without projects.

5 Likes

Yeah, the whole thing sounds really interesting! I wonder if it’ll be 200-300% :slight_smile: I guess if they’re building those telecom masts all over the place!

Those percentages were presented in a somewhat Savonian (ambiguous) way :sweat_smile: Everyone can draw their own conclusions, but I read it as 200-300%. The CEO must have surely read and approved this job description, as it seeks an essential subordinate for them.

Regarding the second announcement, those positions are apparently sought for North America. The largest order previously went to Africa, so these 10 might not be delivering that, or at least one would think the announcement would mention that you’d be going to Africa for installation. So these are likely needed for orders in North America.

2 Likes

I did some calculations based on the 2(00)-300% growth rate mentioned in the CFO job posting. Take these with a grain of salt and do your own checks, I’m not an expert at this.

But in any case, with certain assumptions about profitability, I got the following P/S and P/E ratios for two different scenarios (200% or 300% growth in the coming years). It goes without saying that if this growth is achieved, the multiples are still very attractive. Of course, in such a small pump, there are still many risks. On the other hand, if the deal made with the telecom operator in Africa is fully realized, its value alone is 20M, so then I would see the 200% scenario as very close.

4 Likes

Speculation about a new deal on Twitter:

https://min.e24.no/norfund-vil-drive-900-mobiltarn-med-sol-for-orange-i-noen-av-verdens-fattigste-land/a/kRMjxv

3 Likes

https://www.clearbluetechnologies.com/en/timeline/clear-blue-appoints-farrukh-anwar-as-chief-financial-officer

CFO found :+1:

6 Likes

Trading halt to open

7 Likes

Oh oh I just thought I’d add before the news :sweat_smile: Let’s wait and see what happens :folded_hands:

5 Likes

Oh, this is exciting, I just bought this yesterday :slightly_smiling_face:

2 Likes