Greenlane Renewables - Riding the Wave of Megatrends

The company didn’t have its own thread yet, even though there are already more shareholders on this forum than you can count on both hands. So, let’s use this thread to discuss this upcoming multibagger.

Short company summary: Greenlane Renewables Inc is a provider of biogas upgrading systems. Its systems produce clean, renewable natural gas from organic waste sources including landfills, wastewater treatment plants, dairy farms, and food waste, suitable for either injection into the natural gas grid or for direct use as vehicle fuel. The company is divided into two revenue streams Upgrader projects and Aftercare services. It derives maximum revenue from Upgrader projects. Geographically, it generates a majority of revenue from North America and also has a presence in Europe.

And for those interested, here is some mandatory evening reading: https://clients.haywood.com/uploadfiles/secured_reports/GRNNov182020.pdf

And some more recent discussion from the forum: Energia-alan ja vetysektorin Q&A - #85 käyttäjältä MoneyWalker - Sijoittaminen - Inderes forum and Energia-alan teknologinen kehitys ja sijoitusmahdollisuudet - #4224 käyttäjältä MoneyWalker - Talous & markkinat - Inderes forum

A good point from user tyhma_raha to include in the intro: The exchange is TSX-V and the ticker is GRN.

Yeah, sorry, I haven’t started any threads before. But this should get us started.

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https://www.sarlin.com/tuotteet/greenlane-biogas-järjestelmä-puhdistaa-jalostaa-biokaasun

You can buy it from Sarlin. Here’s some info in Finnish about one of their products!

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Thanks @Savon_keisari for starting this thread! I also thought it would be good to have its own thread since there’s so much scattered discussion in other threads. Here’s some more material on Greenlane to centralize it:

Q3 2020 earnings conference call below, this came out on Tuesday so it’s still fresh:

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This is in the shared report, but I’ll summarize it.

If one believes and trusts these forecasts, which are very realistic given the known sales backlog, then this is a company where one can buy a growth stock at a value stock’s valuation. Next year’s earnings forecast gives a P/E of about 12.

And the speed of growth is remarkable, well over 50%. The market is huge, and I am personally waiting for a similar cooperation deal to be concluded in North America as was done in Europe, offering buyers the possibility of a leasing-based model.

I’m bullish that this has the ingredients for a ten-bagger if we can just compete with rivals :heart_eyes:

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The analysis, company report, and investor call, which were also shared elsewhere, prompted me to ask for opinions on the present and future of biogas from those who know more than I do, leading to an exceptionally quick (though still cautious) opening of a position. Those hydrogen players competing for “loss leader” status feel too wild for my taste, but here, the present alone already seems bright!

I don’t think the company presentation has been shared here yet, so here it is:

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It has started to rise beautifully. It’s close to ATH. Dynacert just comes to mind when I think of Canadian penny stocks

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Another interesting find.

Cash after Q3 5.2 MCAD, what is the probability of a share issue? (I’d guess about 90% probability. Before that, the share price should reflect the juicy future.)

The exchange was TSX-V and the ticker GRN (I think these should always be included in the thread opening. Is it available on other exchanges?

This cannot (again) be acquired through Nordea. (Should I start considering establishing a new banking relationship again?)

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Yes, the exchange and ticker have been added to the start.

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Where do you get that 90% probability for the offering? Q3 operating loss of 734k, sales almost 50m. I don’t get that kind of probability myself.

The 52G ticker can also be found in Frankfurt. However, it is not available on Nordnet.

The possibility of this offering was discussed briefly in another thread.

Those February 2021 warrants would bring in CAD 8.05M if anyone accepts them. At the current share price, it looks like they would be accepted as long as the Q4 results are not disappointing.

The company has roughly the same amount of debt as its current cash, and it matures in 06/2021. The maturity of that debt would be a reason for an offering, but if the February warrants are converted into shares, I don’t believe an offering will happen. The warrants maturing in June could also be enough to cover the debt.

This is, of course, if the business continues as usual and no new and revolutionary investment need is discovered.

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Yeah, the 90% was just a guess – the point was more about asking what others think. But as erkki1 pointed out, there’s a loan maturing next summer, and I believe a growth company needs to make investments.
And I didn’t take into account the money brought in by the warrants. It’s possible that it’s enough.

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This was posted somewhere already, but it’s a good interview to watch:

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Assuming the share price stays above 0.70 CAD for the next 2 months and all warrants are converted into shares, that would bring in 14.55M CAD in addition to the current 5.2M CAD cash.

I believe that would cover the debt and potential investments. Current business operations are not burning through cash heavily, and a turn to profitability is on the horizon. Q4 could very well be profitable if the entire 7.4M Brightmark deal is paid out then. Of course, there is no certain information on this, but the conference call hinted at “started the quarter off strong with Brightmark contract” etc.

Q4 is quite critical here; as long as the results are good and positive development continues, the share price would be somewhere between 0.8 and 1.0 CAD, and the warrants would be in high demand.

Of course, these 11.5M new shares represent dilution just like a share issue, but this happens somewhat more discreetly and does not harm investor sentiment in the same way.

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I would also assume that the maturing debt should be paid by taking out new debt on better terms, rather than using cash. The interest rate here was about 5%, so I believe GRN will be able to get a loan on better terms in 2021. Cash can then be used for investments or acquisitions rather than for non-strategic debt repayment.

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This debt was already reduced once in the summer with a share sale, and at the same time, the maturity date was moved earlier. The company very clearly wants to get rid of that debt; the interest rate is 7%. The debt was reduced just enough so that the warrants from June would cover the remaining amount, and the timing was also moved precisely to June.

A debt-free, profitable company would indeed be able to obtain affordable loans in late 2021.

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Yes, it definitely wants to get rid of it. This debt is a bit complicated. Here’s more information from the Q3 report, apologies for the long quotes, but I think they are quite important:

6 Promissory note
In February 2020 the Company paid Pressure Technologies plc (“Pressure Technologies”) $3.4 million principal and $0.2 million interest on the promissory note, with partial use of proceeds from the February 2020 equity raise (note 7). The repayment of principal down to £4.1 million was in accordance with the terms of the promissory note, under which if the Company completed an equity financing before the maturity date of the promissory note, it would be required to pay to Pressure Technologies an amount equal to the lesser of 50% of
the net proceeds of the equity financing and such other amount as results in a reduction of the principal amount outstanding under the promissory note to £4.1 million.

On July 2, 2020, the Company executed a framework agreement with Pressure Technologies (the “Framework Agreement”), under which the principal value of the promissory note was reduced by $1.8 million to $5.2 million following the disposition of Pressure Technologies entire equity interest in the Company, which was sold in a series of block trades. Pressure Technologies disposed of 7,663,920 common shares and 5,094,765 warrants of the Company, issued to Pressure Technologies in connection with the Company’s acquisition of PT Biogas
Holdings Limited in June 2019. In order to facilitate the transaction, Brad Douville (President and Chief Executive Officer of the Company) and Creation Partners LLP (a partnership owned and controlled by certain Directors of the Company, collectively “the Parties”), as parties to the Framework Agreement, agreed to release Pressure Technologies from its obligations under certain agreements entered into with the Parties that required Pressure Technologies to place certain common shares and warrants in escrow pending repayment in full of the promissory note. In exchange Pressure Technologies agreed to complete the immediate transfer of common shares and warrants in escrow to the Parties from their free-trading and escrow positions. Under the Framework Agreement the maturity date of the remaining balance of the promissory note advanced from June 3, 2023 to June 30, 2021.

In accordance with IFRS 9 – Financial Instruments, the Company accounted for the transaction as an extinguishment of the original promissory note and a new promissory note was recorded to reflect the terms per the Framework Agreement, with a revised principal amount of $5.2 million. The Company recorded a gain of $1.8 million (net of transaction costs) in the statement of operations in the period.

Regarding shares:

7 Share capital
Common shares
At September 30, 2020, the Company had unlimited authorized common shares without par value and 98,193,646 common shares issued and outstanding (December 31, 2019 – 68,435,795).

On February 19, 2020, the Company completed a public offering through the issuance of 23,000,000 units, at a price of $0.50 per unit for gross proceeds of $11.5 million. Each unit was comprised of one common share and one-half of one common share warrant. Each full warrant entitles the holder to purchase one additional common share of the Company for $0.70 per share, for a one-year period ending on February 19, 2021. The fair value of
the warrants issued (valued using the Black-Scholes pricing model) of $0.8 million has been included in contributed surplus.
The Company received net proceeds of $10.3 million from the financing after deducting cash expenses of $1.2 million.
The Company paid commissions and other fees and expenses to brokers of $0.8 million and issued 1,380,000 agent options. Each agent option gives the holder the right to purchase one common share for $0.50, for a oneyear period ending on February 19, 2021.
During the period, 1,591,586 options were exercised, and the fair value of $0.1 million was transferred from contributed surplus to share capital.
At September 30, 2020, the Company had 6.3 million shares held in escrow, which are expected to be released on December 6, 2020. During the quarter, following completion of the Framework Agreement (note 6) 4.1 million shares were released from a further contractual restriction of transfer and an additional 4.3 million shares that were held by Pressure Technologies were released upon the cancellation of the right to direct sales agreement.

What worries me is “6.3 million shares held in escrow”. Does this mean that when these shares are released from escrow, the company will have 6.3 million of its own shares available for use?

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After the Q3 report, there have been a couple of analyst updates. RJ and PI Financial maintained their previous recommendations. Canaccord raised its price target by 10 cents.

Date Brokerage Action Rating Price Target Details
11/18/2020 Pi Financial Set Price Target Buy C$1.25
11/18/2020 Raymond James Set Price Target Strong-Buy C$1.25
11/18/2020 Canaccord Genuity Boost Price Target C$1.20 ➝ C$1.30
11/6/2020 Raymond James Set Price Target Strong-Buy C$1.25
10/19/2020 Pi Financial Reiterated Rating Buy C$1.25
10/9/2020 Haywood Securities Boost Price Target C$0.80 ➝ C$1.25
6/30/2020 Haywood Securities Boost Price Target C$0.75 ➝ C$0.85
4/15/2020 Canaccord Genuity Set Price Target Speculative Buy C$0.80
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Thanks for the conference call link, it doesn’t dampen the mood at least.

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https://simplywall.st/stocks/ca/energy/tsxv-grn/greenlane-renewables-shares#information

This is a nice page where you can see a lot at a glance. They are also quite bullish there: GRN (CA$0.74) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CA$1.95).

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Excellent point, thanks! The key figures are modest, the industry has years of growth ahead as part of the green megatrend, and it’s apparently a market leader. What more could you wish for? :thinking:

The potential-risk ratio seems very good, and a tracking position has been taken.

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