Exclusive: Tesla to “More Than Double AI6 Production”… Pursuing Additional Orders with Samsung
Yhteenveto
Tesla has been identified as being in discussions with Samsung Electronics to expand production volumes of its next-generation artificial intelligence (AI) chip. The two companies are reportedly at the stage of negotiating additional orders on top of existing contract volumes.
According to industry sources on March 4, senior Tesla procurement officials are scheduled to visit Samsung Electronics this week to discuss expanding foundry production volumes for the 2-nanometer next-generation AI chip, AI6. Tesla is understood to have already communicated its request for additional volumes to Samsung Electronics ahead of this visit. The volume contracted last year was approximately 16,000 wafers per month on a wafer-input basis. The additional volume Tesla has requested is roughly 24,000 wafers. This visit is intended to negotiate specific supply terms based on that request. If the deal is finalized, total production volume would increase to approximately 40,000 wafers — a volume that could significantly contribute to securing initial utilization rates at Samsung Electronics’ foundry fab currently under construction in Taylor, Texas.
Tesla previously signed a foundry contract with Samsung Electronics last year for AI6 chip production. At the time, the contract covered a supply period through December 31, 2033, with a contract value of approximately KRW 22.8 trillion. Given the eight-year long-term nature of the contract, analysts interpreted this as implying KRW 2–3 trillion in new annual revenue. Because the additional volumes now under discussion exceed the original contract volumes, the additional contract value is expected to be even larger.
The AI6 chip is reportedly intended for use across multiple Tesla platforms. Industry observers expect the chip to be deployed not only in vehicle autonomous driving systems but also in the Optimus humanoid robot and Tesla’s own AI data centers. The AI6 cluster is expected to take over the role of Dojo, Tesla’s in-house AI supercomputer that was effectively shelved last year. Industry sources believe it will be operated in a cluster configuration, with multiple chips grouped on a single server board.
Tesla has recently been ramping up AI infrastructure investment significantly to advance its autonomous driving services and robot development. During its January earnings call, Tesla stated that “this year’s capital expenditure will expand to a record level exceeding approximately $20 billion.” This is roughly double the recent annual investment range of $8–11 billion.
Samsung Electronics’ semiconductor partnership with Tesla dates back to 2019. At the time, the System LSI division participated in ASIC design while the foundry division produced the chip on its 14nm process — that product was HW3 (AI3). HW4 (AI4), currently installed in vehicles, was also produced on Samsung’s 5nm process. While Tesla split AI5 production between TSMC and Samsung, it has decided to place AI6 production back with Samsung.
Tesla is pursuing a so-called “No China, No Taiwan” strategy with its major component suppliers. The company has already openly communicated this strategy to module partners, urging them to exclude components from those regions. This is a strategic move to eliminate supply chain risks for core components, including semiconductors, amid escalating U.S.-China tensions and Taiwan Strait risks. Samsung Electronics’ Taylor fab, a leading-edge process facility located in Texas, aligns precisely with this strategy.
Once these additional order negotiations are concluded, Samsung Electronics’ foundry division will have secured substantial volumes at leading-edge nodes. An industry official commented, “While final confirmation and detailed production schedules remain subject to change, if this deal goes through, it would serve as a powerful catalyst for a turnaround in Samsung Electronics’ foundry business.”
The partnership between the two companies extends beyond semiconductor manufacturing. Samsung Electronics’ System LSI division has completed development of a 5G vehicle modem for Tesla and is set to begin supply in the first half of this year. Initial volumes are expected to be applied to Texas robotaxis before expanding to general vehicles. The scope of collaboration between the two companies continues to broaden.
Tämä AI6 on käsittääkseni juuri nyt sitä tavaraa, jota Samsung tulee tekemään Taylor Fabissa 2nm / 500W linjastolla käyttäen Canatun pelliclejä. Tällaiset lisätilaukset voivat toimia hyvänä katalyyttinä toisen reaktorin tarpeelle.
Spekulaatio: Paljon on muuttuvia tekijöitä, mutta ensi vuonna tuollaisella 40k waferin tuotantomäärillä (pelkkä AI6) voisi karkeasti arvioida tarvittavan 8 kpl NXE:3800E miilua jatkuvassa tuotannossa (24/7), jolloin pellikkelien kokonaiskulutus kuukaudessa menee yli sadan kappaleen (pellikkelin keston oletuksena konservatiivinen 10k valotuskertaa). Riippuen sitten millaisia muita parametrejä arvioi, niin hyvinkin >500k€ rojaltteja voisi tulla kuukaudessa. Sanotaan veikkaukseksi 5-7miljoonaa vuositasolla '27-.