That’s also true, but 9 consecutive reduce recommendations haven’t really made sense to me.
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That would be the case if the stock price increase was due to one deal, but this is about all of Europe preparing for a potential conflict, meeting NATO’s 5% requirement, and a uniquely good product compared to competitors. As has been mentioned here as well, it’s about seeing the forest for the trees - the market situation as a whole.
Since the error has been acknowledged, I believe this topic is concluded, and the target price will likely rise in the next analysis closer to the level of other analysts.
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We interpret this to mean that the phone lines are buzzing between Oulu and Sotkamo, and we will get to read an analysis related to yesterday’s announcement later this week.
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Today was Optomed’s earnings release, which is what we are mainly working on now. There is also a lot of other monitoring and work to do.
Yesterday, I did contact Bittium’s management quite quickly after the announcement, we discussed the matter and related topics at length, and the outcome of those discussions was the comment published this morning.
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At Aspocomp’s Capital Markets Day, the CEO was asked if Bittium is a customer of Aspocomp. The obvious answer was that we cannot comment on individual customer relationships, but it was mentioned that tactical data transfer is among these. Is it to be assumed that Bittium’s expansion in Europe will also benefit Aspocomp, and therefore the factory expansion will begin immediately?
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Hello,
I would assume these companies do cooperate. In Oulu, they are practically neighbors; I’ve visited both quite often.
However, Bittium is not one of Aspocomp’s largest customers, and even though it is certainly growing, the factory wouldn’t need to be expanded just because of Bittium. If we look at Aspocomp’s Q1-Q3’25 figures, by far the largest and fastest-growing segment was the semiconductor industry (EUR 14.0 million and +253%). The security, defense, and aerospace customer segment (EUR 6.6 million and +32%) follows, and the growth outlook is very good. Of course, all segments have multiple customers, and the PCB (printed circuit board) is still a small part of the overall product.
Bittium’s growth is good news for Aspocomp too, but the factory expansion is probably intended to be filled mainly with products from other companies.
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Thank you, Juha Kinnunen, for the clear and quick answer regarding the “cooperation” between Bittium and Aspocomp.
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Spotted from the KL discussion, more information could probably be found from Blomman’s terminal side.
Bittium will present itself at Cantor’s ‘European Digital Defence Conference’ on November 13, 2025
Cantor Fitzgerald has initiated coverage of the company (Finn Kemper) with an Overweight rating and a target price of 21.20 euros. A hefty 90-page package. The average target price (4 pcs) is 19.05 euros,
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KL has once again done an admirable job of digging, now with Germany’s D-LBO + R&S. This is a continuation / more information on previous problems.
One can hope for improvements if newspaper reports are to be believed. Speech with a 3-second delay, and even a 20-minute (???) digital ‘awareness report’. Leopard installation 200h…
Good for Bittium’s business, of course, if this is true and becomes public knowledge.
Software problems are even more serious: Radio communications are experiencing a delay of around three seconds – a potentially life-threatening error in combat. The exchange of digital situational awareness reports can also take up to 20 minutes. Wagener’s conclusion: “The unit-wide conversion has failed.”
The so-called Digitization of Land-Based Operations (D-LBO) is central to secure communication within the NATO alliance. However, the installation and commissioning of the new systems are stalled. According to Green Party defense policy expert Niklas Wagener, the work on a single Leopard 2 tank alone takes up to 200 hours.
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Great, Bittium is in NYC. But didn’t the CEO make it?
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Happy November holiday.
To pass the rainy day, I ended up reading this forum as well. Your message written less than a couple of weeks ago caught my eye. It’s great that mistakes are acknowledged and analyzed. That’s not necessarily very common in today’s world. For me, at least equally important is that promises are kept. While also being aware of your busy schedule during the Q3 reviews. That’s why I thought I’d ask about the status of this analysis. Now that this company has gained hundreds of new investors just on Nordnet, many investors are surely very interested in the analysis of the matter you promised.
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Hey,
The analysis itself has been done and to some extent structured; it still needs to be communicated. I’ll be in Helsinki at the beginning of the week, and if schedules permit, we’ll video those thoughts then. That way, things could be discussed more broadly, although it could also be summarized here in writing and a few specific points. If we don’t have time with professionals early in the week, then I’ll have to cobble something together myself later in the week.
But let this be a teaser for the video 
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Hey! Is that analysis really timely right now? If I’ve understood the company’s communication in the form of press releases, there might be several trade announcements coming within a week or two, which could easily impact the outlook for 2025 and beyond. 
So isn’t there a risk then that you’re shooting yourself in the foot (again)… 
For me, new insights/analyses are always welcome to read as a challenge to my own view, but honestly, I don’t understand the timing of the analysis at all right now. I would rather read a comprehensive analysis after those upcoming announcements (Finland/Sweden, Spain, Austria?, other?).
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Hi,
you might have misunderstood this “analysis”. The purpose is just to go through what went wrong when the recommendation for 2025 was set to ‘reduce’. Nothing more special than that, although I will, of course, try to open up the background, which might be interesting to many. After a 200% rise, it pretty much doesn’t matter what happens for the rest of the year, it has gone wrong.
Of course, there is also a more extensive update due soon, but that is a long process and in no way comparable to this. In that regard, it would be really nice if we could get concrete information with the announcements. But on the other hand, I don’t know when there would be a calmer period at Bittium, and analyses are always made with the information available at the time. Afterwards, everyone knows everything better, but that’s how it is
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Okay, thanks for the clarification, and looking at it a bit quickly, I understood it differently, i.e., incorrectly. 
Let’s hope that the upcoming comprehensive [report] hits the mark better, especially regarding the view of the future, because, for example, the target price is given 12 months ahead, not backward. Let’s also keep 
that we would soon get those trade announcements materialized.
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President Stubb’s state visit delegation includes Minister of Justice Leena Meri and Minister for Foreign Trade and Development Ville Tavio, as well as a business delegation, which includes Neste, Gasgrid, Fortum, P2X Solutions, ABB Finland, Solnet, Thermal Storage Finland, Hycamite, Aeromon, Nokia, Patria, Hiab, Insta, Bittium, Reaktor, KT-Shelter, Sensofusion, ICEYE, Marine Alutec, and VTT.
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Hi,
this turned into a messy set, as the structuring was left undone. But there it is, about the matter and beside it. Perhaps a common thread can be found amidst the confusion 
https://www.inderes.fi/videos/bittium-kurssinousua-seurattu-katsomosta
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Could @Karoliina_Malmi invite Juha and other analysts following Bittium for a visit where the use of the devices is demonstrated? It came to mind while listening to the video when Juha Hulkko had invited Juha and Mikael to get acquainted with Elektrobit’s products in Germany. Perhaps Bittium’s competitive advantages would become clearer, as had happened during Elektrobit’s time 
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Morning,
I knew that the communication in that video wasn’t particularly clear, but I didn’t realize it had gone so wrong. A few clarifications.
-
@Karoliina_Malmi has indeed kindly invited me to marvel at the products, to demos whenever possible, and furthermore, there is information about defense products from actual use cases and also from outside the Finnish Defence Forces (PV). Not that PV would talk nonsense, but comments from international contacts, for example, from joint exercises, are still more valuable in my opinion (points of comparison and objectivity in this regard). Of course, I speak only for myself, but Karoliina has been extremely helpful over the years.
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I specifically tried to communicate that I have known Bittium’s products to be very competitive. Of course, this is a broader question than just product specs, which I referred to dismissively in my usual style, but indeed, this has been known for years. Changes are in market dynamics and competitive situation, not in products. That very Finnish idea that the best product “automatically” wins is, based on my experience, incorrect.
One should always be able to deepen one’s understanding, but in my opinion, the next step for added value would be to get a better insight into the competitors’ situation – if one could similarly kick the tires of R&S, Thales, or Indra’s setups, that would be extremely interesting. That might be a bit more difficult, but if the people at Bittium have ideas for this, I am extremely interested.
- Jukka Harju, not Juha Hulkko, took us to Germany. Hopefully, the names were correct in the video, and this misunderstanding came from other contexts. Jukka was the CEO of Elektrobit for a long time and is still one of Bittium’s largest owners (Ponato Oy). A nice man, thoroughly firm. Generally, I think I’ve gotten along well with all the CEOs throughout history. In addition, I believe I have a good professional relationship with HPJ Veikkolainen, who has also participated in discussions here, but Hulkko has not been active (at least towards me). That trip was a pleasant curiosity for me, which came to mind when I reflected on that history. Much more important is the long-term work in the background.
Partially related to the matter:
Would the community be interested in the stories of companies through the eyes of analysts? We also have such a long history that there would indeed be interesting background stories – and over time, perspective on both our own and others’ work also emerges. Sometimes it feels like people think we just stare at Excel and grind DCF, which is quite far from reality. People do this work, with people. It could also be a fun exercise for myself if I could take the time to think about and implement it, rather than cramming it out in a rushed time window.
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Thanks, Juha, for the recording.
So, two or three things were the reason you haven’t been able to keep up with the situation since the beginning of the year.
- Large players are not getting their own radios ready quickly enough, or at least not sufficiently quickly, and Bittium possesses expertise that these large players (Indra, BAE systems, Rohde&Schwartz) lack.
- The displacement of Elbit from European markets (Spain, Sweden, among others) due to the Gaza war.
- The pace of tactical radio renewals since the beginning of this year.
Indeed, these matters have surprised me as well, and certainly the markets. The pace is now rapid and is likely to only accelerate in the future. It is believed that agreements will be finalized at an increasing rate.
A couple of questions.
When you regretted your mistake, did it stem from this year’s process up to this point, or from the final outcome (or both)?
I understood that you wished you had started pricing this more aggressively earlier in the year, thereby giving ‘add/buy’ recommendations and higher target prices. And I also understood that even if that had happened, the current recommendation and target price would have been the same then. So, you apparently regretted the journey more than the outcome?
Back on the horse. How do we get there? If the outcome isn’t regrettable, but mainly the journey, then that’s an interesting situation.
Hidden hold? I understood that at some point you would have wanted to give this a ‘hold’ recommendation. And as you did give it in the text part of some analysis. In my opinion, it’s an area for development to consider whether the ‘hold’ recommendation should be brought back into the repertoire. Because sometimes the best situation for an investor is just to hold and wait. As is currently the case for me with this.
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