There’s a recent article in Kauppalehti about Bittium’s wild ride, featuring an interview with OP Pohjola analyst Kimmo Stenvall. What caught my eye was a chart based on Factset figures, where the 2025 dividend forecast is €2.35 (and €2.46 for 2026)… I wonder if that’s just pulled out of thin air, or what do you folks think?
Note! I’m adding a link to the article (behind a paywall), and the chart I posted was grabbed from there.
That’s pulled out of thin air; that would mean €84M worth of dividends for next year, when the company had 19M in cash at the end of Q3.
Great, that deflated the balloon in one go. I was wondering about such a high figure, but I didn’t think to multiply the listed shares by that mentioned number myself… the stuff these journalists put out??
Could it be that the dividend would be: €0.235 and €0.246?
OP’s estimates regarding the Indra deal in a tweet.
Here is Jussi Halme’s video on Bittium. 
Of course, for those who have followed the company more closely, there shouldn’t be much new information.
Bittium has become the hottest topic on the Helsinki Stock Exchange with its over 300% share price increase. But is the outlook already tough for new investors? In this video, we break down Bittium’s wild transformation from an Oulu-based tech company into an interesting player in the European defense market.
We review the growth of the Defense & Security unit, the latest Q3 figures, and the critical risks brought about by the billion-euro market capitalization and tight valuation multiples. Is Bittium still a sensible investment, or has the future potential already been priced in? Join us in considering whether this is an expensive opportunity or a pure waiting game.
Thanks for this! Jussi is a positive, down-to-earth, and clear-speaking guy; I recommend giving his channel a listen. As a retail shareholder of Bittium, I was already looking for a change from the “sugar-high” hype that surrounds Bitti. I’ve personally experienced something similar as a major shareholder of Revenio, back when the sky was the limit and I was still buying more at €60. Bitti is on a good path, but as Jussi aptly notes, the share price is already pricing in a blissful “blue ocean” future, just as it was with Revenio a few years ago. I kept all my Revenio shares in my portfolio, and with Bitti, I’m not sure right now whether to buy back the portions I sold “by mistake” or just watch the numbers grow with my current position. I’m looking for more well-reasoned opinions and analysis on Bitti, and thanks to Jussi for the great videos.
P.S. Move this to the coffee room if it doesn’t belong in this thread.
I couldn’t really find a better thread for this, but the admins can move it elsewhere if needed.
The investment year has been very good for me in the big picture (ytd 22%), but the biggest “blunder” this year has been with Bittium. I don’t know if there are any kindred spirits here, but I personally sold my whole position in March 2025 and have had to watch this year-end rally from the sidelines. This hasn’t really bothered me at all during the year, but in these last few weeks, watching from the sidelines has started to get annoying, as this growth story seems to be hyped on every single channel I follow.
It is, of course, quite bold to say whether I would have had the patience not to sell these shares at, say, 15 euros (I sold at 9 euros) and keep the whole pot in my portfolio throughout the year. Granted, this rocket-like rise has happened within about 2 months.
Behind that sale is a very traditional textbook example of investment psychology. First buys in 2020 and additions in 2021. Along the way, the return was probably at -40% at some point, but in the big picture, I’ve always seen the company as having potential, but they have fallen short in realizing that potential. When this defense hype started, I already started rubbing my hands together, thinking “is the ketchup bottle finally opening?”. During 2024, it rose quite quickly to around 8-9 euros, but the rise largely stalled there for a while.
At this point, it’s also good to say that I don’t really understand Bittium’s business in depth, but the first half of 2024 and 2025 somehow made me fed up, thinking that this potential won’t materialize even now and that the rise was just due to the defense hype. So I decided to sell all the shares with about a 20% return, but the stock has risen about 350% since then, so I guess it’s only human to be annoyed on some level. What’s even funnier is that after my sale, the stock probably dropped to around 7 euros, and I already managed to think of myself as a genius and give myself a little pat on the back 
.
This didn’t bring much value to the discussion, but I thought I’d share one private investor’s story about how someone managed to screw up with this stock this year too. Congratulations to all current owners and Happy New Year!
Hi @Tallitonttu,
Kiitos kysymyksistä.
The €50 million order is a contract-based order for a license. As a whole, such a license deal includes license revenue, technology and production transfer projects, and eventually royalty income. We have agreed with the customer not to disclose the details of the deal more specifically than this. The agreement does not include the sale of Bittium-manufactured Tough SDR radios to Indra, nor any other products from Bittium’s tactical product portfolio (TACWIN, Comnode, or software) or the Security product portfolio. If these were to be sold, it would be a completely separate deal—which, naturally, would be very desirable business
On this last day of the year, thank you again to the forum members for the good and fruitful discussions on behalf of the company. A happy and successful New Year to everyone, and let’s continue next year!
Best regards, Karoliina and the entire Bittium team
Thank you for the prompt and informative response. And congratulations on closing the Spanish deal.
Happy New Year to the entire Bittium team.
Highest target price. Finn Kemper Cantor Fitzgerald Europe €33 Buy.
The local analyst’s TP is weighing down the average a bit.
It’s surprisingly quiet on this forum regarding Helsinki’s top-performing stock from last year. The company currently has such strong prospects that reclaiming that title this year is not a total impossibility. Bittium is one of the few domestic listed companies operating in the red-hot defense sector, with the added bonus of the Medical division, which is also a rapidly growing market.
Agreed, surprisingly little discussion about the company and its possibilities. There’s much more talk on the neighboring forum, but it’s not particularly high quality…
Expectations are certainly baked into the stock, but we haven’t seen Bittium logos tattooed in backs or €30 “hat-eating” livestreams yet. In other words, there isn’t the same kind of retail investor hype that was seen with certain forum favorites back in 2021, for instance. On the contrary, there seems to be an underlying tone of cautious restraint in discussions and market commentary concerning Bittium, highlighting risks and elevated valuation.
To avoid keeping my comment strictly on a meta-level: I personally still hold this stock especially due to the UK opportunity and the BAE cooperation. If they manage to enter the UK market with a licensing agreement similar to the one in Spain, would its scale be 1x, 2x, or 5x? In all scenarios, the earnings and share price would reach entirely new levels, and Bittium’s technology would cement its position as the standard for European armed forces for years to come. Besides the UK, there are certainly significant opportunities elsewhere too.
Regarding Medical, I wouldn’t be surprised by potential corporate restructuring (e.g., a spin-off), as Defense now seems to be securing its position as the company’s spearhead far into the future.
Information from Infodefensa’s website regarding the licensing deal between Bittium and Indra.
The press release states that Spain currently lacks the capability to produce this type of technology domestically, which is why a two-pronged strategy has been adopted: acquiring systems from the market that allow for immediate seamless interoperability with allied countries, while simultaneously developing Spain’s own internal capacity. The agreement between Indra and Bittium facilitates both stages of this strategy.
Ensuring domestic capacity is a critical issue in the defense sector, especially for larger nations. Licensing Bittium’s technology could also rescue the German army from the predicament it has fallen into due to Rohde & Schwarz’s substandard solution.
With any luck, Spain is just the beginning.
CEO Petri Toljamo’s presentation material from the SEB event.
By the way, in the picture, drones are flying in a swarm connected to Bittium’s tactical network. One of Patria’s offices is now located in Bittium’s main building in Oulu. The collaboration could be quite fruitful.
Juha gave an Accumulate recommendation and a target price of 36 EUR. I’m eagerly looking forward to the analysis, which will probably be available to read this morning.
