AVTECH has secured its first new customer in a long time and its first-ever Boeing customer. However, it is a relatively small airline and deal in question.
AVTECH has signed Compass Cargo Airlines for its Aventus Flight Optimisation services covering its Boeing 747F fleet, marking the first customer deployment on the Boeing 747 platform. The contract value is immaterial at SEK0.1m–0.2m. According to Planespotters data, Compass Cargo operates two Boeing 747s and three Boeing 737s, suggesting modest upsell potential through fleet expansion and broader adoption of AVTECH’s product portfolio. Following a year-long hiatus in new sales, Redeye views this as a positive indication that the refreshed sales organisation is beginning to secure contracts.
Two-year contract extension with Southwest. The stock price, which had been beaten down to the ground, ended the day up +13.7% (peaking at around +30% today).
AVTECH Sweden AB (publ) announces a two-year contract extension with Dallas, Texas-based Southwest Airlines® for the Aventus Enroute and Descent Winds service. The service agreement is extended until the end of June 2028 with an expected contract value between 26 and 36 MSEK, depending on the USD exchange rate.
The renewal is positive on two fronts: it demonstrates Aventus holds value even as airlines face surging fuel costs, and it restores confidence in the product following LATAM’s re-evaluation. As a bellwether carrier, SouthWest’s renewal signals confidence in Aventus that smaller airlines are unlikely to ignore. AVTECH traded near Redeye’s bear case ahead of the release, making the 17% relief rally at publication warranted — the renewal materially reduces both customer loss risk and Aventus spillover.
Redeye maintains its forecast but believes the added momentum will help the share close in on its Base Case of SEK9.0.
On Friday, after the markets closed, we received some negative news to counter the situation. The share price is currently down 16%, and it hit a 1-year low today (4.93 SEK).
AVTECH presented its Q2 key figures yesterday, and operationally the quarter was steady: net sales rose 7% to SEK12.6m (1% above Redeye’s estimate) and ARR grew 8%, though EBITDA came in 13% below estimate on step-up investment. The market has nonetheless sold the shares off on fears that LATAM is gone for good. Redeye thinks that loss is already largely in the price: at SEK4.7 the stock sits only marginally above the SEK3.5–4.5 Redeye reckons the business is worth without LATAM, and LATAM has signalled it intends to resume after the pause. Risk/reward has skewed positive, with a LATAM return the catalyst for a sharp re-rating.
AVTECH Q2 2026. No surprises here; the key figures were already announced in July.
If one is looking for something positive, sales efforts are progressing and, for instance, investments have been made in personnel:
The changes implemented within sales and marketing are beginning to have a clearer impact. We are seeing a growing number of qualified discussions with airlines of different sizes and levels of maturity. Several processes are progressing from initial dialogue towards proof-of-value trials and operational evaluation.
During the period, we completed proof-of-value trials with two medium-sized airlines and confirmed new trials with a further two airlines, one of which is very large. This represents an important step in our ambition to systematically convert market interest into operational validation and subsequently into commercial agreements.
In addition, we are engaged in qualified discussions with a further seven to eight medium-sized airlines. The average fleet size in several of these ongoing dialogues is substantial. This means that even a limited number of successful conversions could become important to the Company’s continued scaling.
We are also seeing growing interest from organizations outside our traditional airline customer base. During the period, a European aircraft manufacturer decided to begin using Aventus in its internal testing activities, and we are also seeing interest from additional organizations in the same category. This broadens the picture of AVTECH’s relevance and demonstrates that our services and data can create value across several parts of the aviation ecosystem.
Over the past year, our total resource base, including employees and consultants, has increased from 22 to 32 people, corresponding to approximately 45 percent. The number of employees has increased from 14 to 23, corresponding to approximately 64 percent.
Redeye also noted the information provided regarding the customer pipeline. No changes to forecasts or target price.
AVTECH’s Q2 landed on the preannounced figures — net sales 1% above Redeye’s estimate, EBITDA 13% below. AVTECH disclosed its most detailed customer pipeline to date: completed proof-of-concept trials with two medium-sized carriers, trials agreed with two further carriers of which one is very large, seven to eight other medium-sized airlines in dialogue, and a European aircraft manufacturer using Aventus for internal testing. The LATAM update repeated the previous message of a one-to-two-month pause. Redeye reads today’s share move as a response to the pipeline disclosure and continues to see a LATAM restart as the near-term trigger. Estimates are unchanged and the Base Case stays at SEK9.
AVTECH Sweden AB (publ) announces that LATAM Airlines Group S.A. has decided not to restart Aventus for any part of its fleet and not to restart ClearPath for its short-haul fleet. LATAM will continue to use ClearPath for its long-haul fleet. The decision means that AVTECH’s annual recurring revenue, ARR, will decrease by approximately SEK 8.5 million, from the most recently reported SEK 51.5 million to approximately SEK 43 million.
The share price reacted strongly to this, currently down 20.6%. Edit: at the end of the day -27.7%. Lowest 3.42 SEK. You probably have to go back to 2023 to find when we were last at these levels.
Edit Aug 24: Redeye’s updated analysis: Share overshoot on partial LATAM loss. They consider the reaction overdone and remain buyers. The updated base case target is SEK 6.6 (9.0) and the fair value range is SEK 3.3-10.0 (3.3-13.0).
And let’s also add the CEO interview (20 min). The landscape has changed, there are more competitors now, others are also promising savings [5:20]. “Pretty much changed the entire sales organisation” [8:15], a strong sales pipeline is building up. Several of the trials mentioned in the report should reach the finish line within this year; decisions may of course take some time to wait for.
He seems excited about the cooperation with a European aircraft manufacturer. They can’t disclose which company it is, but “people can draw their own conclusions”. So Airbus, I suppose.
At the end, the topic is the Polish StorkJet. According to Rytter, AVTECH’s and StorkJet’s services complement each other and compete in some areas.
Today’s press release regarding the major aircraft manufacturer (I would assume it’s the same European one they mentioned earlier):
The Aventus Full‑Flight Winds service is being used in test flights related to the new FMS.
The value of the 18-month contract signed now is a paltry 0.3 MSEK. If it is Airbus and Avtech’s solutions end up being used more extensively there in connection with the next-generation FMS, you would think the potential is quite a bit more.
Still, it’s hard to assess the significance of this with my own understanding. After the press release, the share price briefly spiked up by 9.6%, but ended slightly in the red.
The share price development has looked very bleak, and the same will likely continue unless significant new customer deals start coming in (in terms of actual SEK amounts, that is). Today +7.7% (3.35 SEK), but YTD -61% and down over 70% from the highs in just over a year.
Is anyone here still following the company or harboring hopes of a new rebound?
Redeye considers it cheap. (But how much weight should be given to this analysis? I’d imagine there’s a high threshold for them to write about a commissioned client that the game is probably lost.)
At SEK3.11 before the release, the share trades below the lower end of our SEK3.3-10.0 fair value range (Base Case SEK6.6) and is down ~71% over the past year. With the shares below our SEK3.3 bear case, a pipeline three times broader and costs below forecast, we see 110% upside to our Base Case. Key items to monitor: what drove the EBITDA beat and whether the airline pipeline converts into signed contracts.
After the press release, the share price briefly spiked up by 9.6%, but ended slightly in the red.