Asmodee board game empire - From

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Asmodee Tabletop Game Empire - From Catan to Pokémon Cards
[https://corporate.asmodee.com/]

Listed on Nasdaq Stockholm with ticker ASMDEE-B among large cap companies.
Tabletop game company Asmodee has finally spun off from its parent company Embracer.

[https://www.placera.se/placera/redaktionellt/2025/02/07/wingefors-de-flesta-i-pe-aktorerna-i-varlden-har-velat-kopa-asmodee.plc.html]

Background under Embracer’s Ownership
Before its listing on the Stockholm stock exchange, Asmodee has a 30-year history of private ownership, with Embracer being the most recent owner. Under Embracer’s ownership, Asmodee has grown and consistently generated cash flow. During a major restructuring, Asmodee was a unit where no reductions or studio closures were made.

The main purpose of Asmodee’s spin-off from Embracer can broadly be seen as taking Embracer’s large debts with it. This ‘vulture’ style would otherwise fit the picture, but the beginning of Asmodee was genuinely intended to be strengthened, as Embracer gained extra cash through the Easybrain acquisition and provided money to Asmodee upon its spin-off.

Asmodee has become one of the world’s largest publishers and distributors of board games and card games. Its game library includes mega-hits such as Catan, Ticket to Ride, Dobble, as well as a wide selection of third-party games. However, many do not know that Asmodee is also one of the largest distributors of Pokémon cards in Europe.

Although the company is listed in Sweden and the main owner is Lars Wingefors, Asmodee’s roots are in France. In addition, its operational headquarters will also be there.

Board of Directors (2024/2025)
Asmodee CEO Thomas Koegler’s view of Asmodee is encouraging: “Asmodee, having been privately owned, has historically managed larger leverages (debt loads) and grown.”
Lars Wingefors (Chair of the Board)
Kicki Wallje-Lund (Deputy Chair)
Stéphane Carville (former Asmodee CEO)
Marc Nunes (Asmodee founder and former COO)
Jacob Jonmyren (Embracer board member)
Linda Höljö (COO and CFO of Pophouse Entertainment Group)

Bonds and Credit Rating Agencies’ View, as well as Competitors
Asmodee’s bonds sold quickly and have been rated by Fitch (B+ positive), Moody’s (B2 positive), and S&P (B Positive) as highly speculative. Among these, Fitch’s rating report is publicly available, which highlights the issues that differentiate Asmodee from its competitors (Mattel, Hasbro). Competitors have achieved investment grade status for their credit ratings, which explains their valuation levels.

[https://www.fitchratings.com/entity/asmodee-group-ab-97674454#ratings]
The report also includes a good company presentation from Fitch’s perspective.

Based on Fitch’s report, it is expected that Asmodee will make some debt payments and its credit ratings will improve. The biggest question is whether Asmodee will succeed in building a strong enough portfolio to reduce its potential dependence (on Pokémon cards). In this case, Asmodee would, according to Fitch at least, aim for competitors’ Investment grade debt ratings.

Other speculation…

The start is good, as Embracer is indeed contributing money in this spin-off.

Tabletop games generally don’t change on top lists as quickly as the hot PC/console markets; changes are slower. One trend in tabletop games is that more of them now include a single-player mode, and with smartphones, digital elements are also being incorporated.

Furthermore, Asmodee is significant not only as a developer but also as a third-party distributor, where it is the largest in Europe.

A couple more links.

[Tabletop Gaming Market will grow at a CAGR of 12.20% from 2024 to 2031.] On the growth prospects of tabletop game companies.

[Browse Board Games | BoardGameGeek] Here are some ranking lists of tabletop games.

Interesting questions still remain open…

  • Can Asmodee balance its dependence on Pokémon cards?
  • Can it challenge Mattel and Hasbro in the market?
  • Is Asmodee an interesting stock, and how might its value develop?
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Thanks, I feel I’ll make a few more posts to this thread as more interest and thumbs up came.

I felt that Asmodee needed a thread because many received a handful of these shares from Embracer, and if any questions arise, we’ll try to solve them.

I haven’t commented on the market value yet, as there will certainly be movement back and forth. Asmodee inherited Embracer’s ownership base, and looking at the first day’s trading, many already transferred their ownership to the next owner.

Lars paid as much as 29 billion (SEK) for Asmodee in 2021, and now the value hovers around 24.5.

Tabletop / board games are one of the cheapest forms of leisure activities, and taking a 50-year-old game off the shelf to play with friends often doesn’t feel old, perhaps the colors have faded a bit or some cards/game pieces are missing.

The industry’s growth is generally a bit slower, and big mega-hits don’t emerge that quickly. But the classics steadily churn on from year to year or decade to decade.

As a stock, my thought is that Asmodee is probably more boring than Sampo, once things stabilize here first, but it’s too early to say anything about what the share price will be in a year.

The credit rating is a very realistic view of the current situation compared to competitors. The first rating upgrade could come very soon, as the confirmation of additional funding only came at the very end of last year. But there is still some way to go to reach investment grade ratings.

Kepler gave it a target price of 144-150kr last year, which seems to have had a bit of a salt shaker used on it. But those levels can certainly be reached when credit rating agencies raise debt ratings and dividend payments start in a few years.

Now that Asmodee is an independent listed company, how will it be able to implement its strategy, which will then determine its success. The CEO and board are mainly from within the company and have grown Asmodee to its current size.

And next week won’t leave us cold…

  • Q3 results (12.2.) backed by Christmas/Black Friday etc.
  • Share transfers before the situation starts to stabilize and a certain level is found.
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Asmodee also publishes digital versions of successful board games on Steam (and not just their own) such as Scythe, GoT, and Blood Rage. In my experience, these are of very high quality.
Digital board gaming grew significantly during the COVID-19 pandemic when it was not possible to gather physically and actual computer games did not meet the need.
In my experience, Asmodee dominates this market, which is certainly not a bad thing.

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A few interesting things from the prospectus:
Market size is around 13 bn EUR, so Asmodee’s market share is pretty much 10%.
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Of the market, 40% is NA, 35% Europe.
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Asmodee, on the other hand, has only 23% NA share (Europe 72%!), so one could imagine there’s room to grow there.
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The share of Pokemon cards in revenue was a bit of a surprise to me. The prospectus states that the “top five product ranges” include 3 products published by Asmodee: Exploding Kittens, Ticket to Ride, and Dobble/Spot-it!. Additionally, the top five include 2 products published by partners, which are Pokemon TCG and MTG. Digging a bit deeper, it is stated that the “top five product ranges” accounted for 51% of revenue. Furthermore, it is stated that none of the games published by Asmodee account for 5% of revenue. Therefore, Pokemon and MTG account for at least 36% of revenue.

ChatGPT can tell us

Exact figures aren’t public. Rough estimates put Pokémon TCG at around $1B+ annually, while Magic’s TCG (paper and digital combined) is in the several‐hundred-million to ~$1B+ range.

So it could be estimated that, for example, 24% of Asmodee’s total revenue would be from Pokemon TCG and 12% could be from MTG. :thinking:

Current valuation (105 SEK, taking into account the upcoming 300 MEUR loan repayment):
P/E 19.2
EV/EBIT 13
I’d say it’s not cheap, but not very expensive either.

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I personally decided to sell off ~half of my Asmodee and Embracer holdings at a rather significant loss (~-20%). My confidence in Embracer is quite low, and Asmodee doesn’t look clearly better in my eyes. As a board game and video game enthusiast, I couldn’t bring myself to give up the entire position, but this duo has certainly been quite a disappointment.

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Let me correct that this was calculated based on the Prospectus, which did not yet include Q4 data. The Q4 trading update showed that EBIT improved in Q4 compared to the previous year, from 71 MEUR → 83 MEUR, so
LTM EV/EBIT = 12.2.

In Q4, there was indeed good growth in their own publications:

During the three-month period ended 31 December 2024, games published by Asmodee studios is expected to grow by approximately 29 percent compared to the corresponding period in the previous year, mainly driven by several releases based on third party IPs, thereby adding several titles compared to the previous period. During the period, games published by partners is expected to grow by approximately 5 percent compared to the previous period.

This and 11% revenue growth (385 MEUR → 429 MEUR) then led to that good profitability improvement. Asmodee stated in the prospectus that their own publications are on average twice as profitable as those of partners. With own publications accounting for about 30% of revenue, with an EBIT margin of 15%, one could assume that the profitability (EBIT-%) of own publications is around 23% and that of partner-published games is 11.5%.

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Danske Bank initiated coverage of Asmodee with a target price of SEK 120 and a buy recommendation

Kepler buy and target price SEK 127

Canton Fitzgerald overweight and target price SEK 135

Somewhere I saw a more neutral coverage with a target price of SEK 100, I’ll add it once I find it.

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Ihan kelpoa kasvua:

Third quarter, October-December 2024

  • Net sales amounted to EUR 429.0 million (385.4), an increase of 11.3%, of which 12.9% relates to organic growth.
    • Games published by Asmodee studios increased by 29.1%.
    • Games published by partners increased by 4.8%.
    • Others decreased by -32.0%.
  • Adjusted EBITDA amounted to EUR 89.3 million (80.0), corresponding to an adjusted EBITDA margin of 20.8%, (20.7).
  • EBIT amounted to EUR 37.4 million (48.2), including costs related to the listing of EUR -28.6 million. Adjusted EBIT amounted to EUR 82.9 million (71.2).
  • Profit for the quarter amounted to EUR 3.5 million (-5.3), which equates to basic earnings per share of EUR 0.02 (-0.06).
  • Free cash flow after tax and capitalized lease payments amounted to EUR 72 million.
  • Net debt/EBITDA amounted to 3.6x and 4.2x before and after M&A commitments respectively.
  • For the FY 24/25, net sales are expected to grow at low-single-digit while the adjusted EBITDA margin as well as the adjusted EBIT margin are expected to be broadly in line with the previous year.
  • Asmodee issued EUR 940 million of senior secured notes, replacing the EUR 900 million bridge facility.
  • On November 19, 2024 Asmodee hosted a Capital Markets Day in Stockholm.

Material events after the end of the reporting period

  • Asmodee received a EUR 400 million capital injection from Embracer Group. Adjusted for this, Net debt/ EBITDA would have amounted to approximately 2.0x and 2.5x before and after M&A commitments.
  • Asmodee initiated the repayment of EUR 300 million of gross debt relating to outstanding bonds.
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During the week, Asmodee seemed to have found its place, and share turnover has completely plummeted from the first day’s pace of 10 million shares to under half a million.

Several insiders sold off portions of their shares at a price of 111 SEK.

Fitch raised the debt rating [https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/fitch-assigns-asmodee-final-bb-rating-on-finalisation-of-recapitalisation-20-02-2025]

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Asmodee is breaking the 100 SEK mark and probably going a bit deeper, looking for a firmer bottom for itself.

98.5 SEK was the price when it separated from Embracer. And before the separation occurred, the combined share price of both was 230 SEK, which corresponded to an old Embracer price of ~38 SEK. The decline may continue, as Embracer didn’t even manage to cross the 30 SEK mark.

That tight former 30 SEK level could be, when calculated for Asmodee, somewhere around 77 SEK; let’s see if it reaches that point. Selling pressure seems to be on, at least for now, as credit ratings didn’t significantly affect a reversal of direction.

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This would probably be about hyping up the stock, but it’s about the outcome after Asmodee and Embracer’s split. The Asmodee mentioned above has interested investors, and Asmodee is about to overtake Embracer’s market value from the inside lane.

The interim report is coming next week on Wednesday, May 21st.

There seems to be a lot of hype coming from Sweden, even with the latest headlines. (paywall)
[ https://www.affarsvarlden.se/intervju/lancelot-forvaltaren-satsar-pa-spel-dubblingspotential-i-asmodee ]

And ABG considers Asmodee a hidden gem on the stock market, giving it a target price of 135 SEK with a buy recommendation. Analysts following Asmodee also seem to be unanimous.
[ https://ae.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/FINANCIERE-AMUSE-TOPCO-SA-181989836/news/Asmodee-a-hidden-gem-ABG-Private-Banking-s-top-pick-of-the-week-49841161/]

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Luvut tuli julki, kasvu jatkuu.

Fourth quarter, January-March 2025

  • Net sales amounted to EUR 341.4 million (277.5), an increase of 23.0%, of which 23.6% relates to organic growth.
    • Games published by Asmodee studios increased by 10.2%.
    • Games published by partners increased by 32.5%.
    • Others decreased by -20.2%.
  • Adjusted EBITDA amounted to EUR 40.8 million (42.3), corresponding to an adjusted EBITDA margin of 11.9% (15.2).
  • Adjusted EBIT amounted to EUR 32.8 million (34.6). EBIT amounted to EUR 30.9 million (-786.3), where last year was negatively impacted by an impairment of goodwill as well as publishing and distribution rights.
  • Profit for the quarter amounted to EUR -0.1 million (-632.5), which equates to basic earnings per share of EUR 0.00 (-6.56).
  • Free cash flow after tax and capitalized lease payments amounted to EUR 95.1 million.

Full-year, April 2024-March 2025

  • Net sales amounted to EUR 1,369 million (1,288), an increase of 6.3%, of which 7.7% relates to organic growth.
    • Games published by Asmodee studios increased by 16.9%
    • Games published by partners increased by 4.3%.
    • Others decreased by -28.3%.
  • Adjusted EBITDA amounted to EUR 228.2 million (211.7), corresponding to an adjusted EBITDA margin of 16.7% (16.4%).
  • Adjusted EBIT amounted to EUR 198.2 million (181.0). EBIT amounted to EUR 116.7 million (-710.3).
  • Profit for the period amounted to EUR 4.7 million (-541.2), which equates to basic earnings per share of EUR 0.03 (-5.61).
  • Free cash flow after tax and capitalized lease payments amounted to EUR 197.3 million (184.8).
  • Net debt/EBITDA amounted to 1.8x (-0.1) and 2.3x (0.8) before and after M&A commitments respectively.
  • The Board of Directors proposes that no dividend shall be paid for the fiscal year 24/25 and that retained earnings shall be carried forward.

Thomas Goeglerin mukaan kasvu ylitti johdon odotukset ja tullien vaikutus on Asmodeen kannalta vain vähäinen vaikutus.

Edellispäivänä Asmodee oli hetken ohi Embracerin markkina-arvon. Saa nähdä miten käy kun viikko kääntyy perjantaille.

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Lars, together with a board member, sold 5 million shares of Asmodee at a price of 117 SEK. To institutional and private investors.

Asmodee released a good report, perhaps a minor flaw that sales of their own games were slightly weak (-1%), but this is reportedly going to be fixed soon.

Target prices are still above the current share price.

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My gut feeling is from the previous day’s Asmodee sell-off, especially since Embracer’s insiders have been buying up their own company, that Asmodee has been sold off a bit more in Larss’s wake…

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The gap between Asmodee and Embracer has only widened over the past year.

Asmodee already operates practically as a fully independent company. Financing, cash flow, and strategy no longer rely on Embracer. Still, it feels like some of the Embracer pessimism is still weighing down Asmodee’s valuation.

The report on Christmas sales (Feb 19th) will be interesting to see how close they are to Asmodee’s targets regarding when the shareholder remuneration policy could begin (of course, the full-year results come first).

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Analyst consensus remains positive.

I tried to learn Catan with my wife at a board game bar, but a slight state of dizziness prevented me from internalizing the rules. :laughing:

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Record quarter for sales and EBITDA

[ https://corporate.asmodee.com/news/asmodees-interim-report-april-december-2025-record-quarter-for-sales-and-ebitda ]

Third quarter, October-December 2025

Net sales amounted to EUR 524.1 million (429.0), an increase of 22.2%, of which 25.6% organic growth.
Games published by asmodee studios decreased by -12.7%.
Games published by partners increased by 50.3%.
Others decreased by -8.5%.
Adjusted EBITDA amounted to EUR 114.5 million (89.3), corresponding to an adjusted EBITDA margin of 21.8% (20.8).
Adjusted EBIT amounted to EUR 107.2 million (82.9). EBIT amounted to EUR 91.3 million (37.4).
Adjusted profit/loss for the quarter was EUR 64.4 million (41.6), which equates to adjusted earnings per share of EUR 0.28 (0.25).
Profit/loss for the quarter amounted to EUR 49.1 million (3.5), which equates to basic earnings per share of EUR 0.21 (0.02).
Free cash flow after income tax and lease payments amounted to EUR 76.5 million (71.8), resulting in a free cash flow conversion relative to adjusted EBITDA of 67% (80).

Organic growth (+25.6%) stems largely from the previously announced partnership with Hasbro. This means card production is driving growth significantly.

Figures set by Fitch for a credit rating upgrade. Most of these have already been achieved, though we are still slightly short in terms of EBITDA.

  • Increasing scale with Fitch-calculated EBITDA maintained above EUR250 million on a sustained basis

  • Established record of strong commitment to its financial policy, with total debt below 3.5x Fitch-calculated EBITDA on a sustained basis, including consistency with the stated shareholder policy and a conservative stance on debt-funded M&A

  • FCF margins sustained at mid-single digits

  • EBITDA interest cover sustained above 4.5x

The shareholder remuneration policy is based on the EBITDA-to-debt ratio. Here, too, we have already fallen below the target set at the Capital Markets Days; though back then, it wasn’t known that Embracer would still provide funding when they spun off Asmodee.

I’m certainly sitting here with interest looking forward to the next interim report, which will conclude the fiscal year.

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Even the media became interested in Asmodee’s results.

The initial +8% start turned quite quickly into a -2% drop on the stock exchange, but it leveled off towards the end of the day so that it even ended up in the green.

Someone big took the opportunity to make an exit; there are still parties among the company’s owners who do not want to be owners in a traditional board game company, and now an opportunity opened up to put a large amount up for sale at once, as Asmodee’s trading volume has been quite low.

Another topic of speculation could be that since Lars is intending to step aside from Asmodee’s operations as well, there might be another large block for sale, and this kept large institutions from buying.

Koegler said yesterday that the goal has indeed been achieved; they are now considering how the shareholder reward policy will be implemented. They have plenty of time for this deliberation; the AGM is scheduled for the autumn.

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[ Lars Wingefors storsäljer aktier i Asmodee | Placera.se ]

So Lars’s lock-up expires 180 days after the previous sale, and that is right after the middle of February.

Unless he announces otherwise, I would expect a large block trade where Lars will likely sell Asmodee shares.

Last time, 5 million shares were moved at a price of 117 SEK, which was about a 4% discount to the day’s closing price.