Anora - Brands for the bunker

Sweden’s Systembolaget published its Q3 figures today. There (too), especially in wines, a slight decrease in Q3 (and cumulatively for the whole year), so regarding market development, this year in the Nordics also seems to remain in the negative, as I previously assumed.

Tomorrow we will see how Anora has performed, or perhaps already tonight if the board gets excited to lower the guidance before tomorrow morning’s report.

Systembolaget Interim Report January–March 2025

EDIT: It is a link to the Q3 report, the System’s people just forgot to update the title :slight_smile:

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Oh, what a day of joy and happiness :slight_smile: , an earnings beat! Inderes’ Robo calls the result contradictory, I call it good. When sales are not going as desired, the focus is on business profitability. Guidance reiterated: Anora Group Oyj:n osavuosikatsaus 1.1.-30.9.2025: Vertailukelpoinen käyttökate parani edelleen Q3:lla vahvan bruttokateprosentin ja hyvän kulukontrollin ansiosta | Kauppalehti

Q3 2025 in brief

  • Net sales were EUR 156.7 (162.7) million, a decrease of 3.7 percent.
  • Comparable EBITDA was EUR 18.0 (15.9) million, or 11.5 (9.8) percent of net sales, an increase of 13.1 percent.
  • EBITDA was EUR 18.0 (15.3) million, or 11.5 (9.4) percent of net sales, an increase of 17.9 percent.
  • Net cash flow from operating activities was EUR -0.8 (-19.1) million.
  • Earnings per share were EUR 0.09 (0.05).

January-September 2025 in brief

  • Net sales were EUR 463.6 (486.7) million, a decrease of 4.8 percent.
  • Comparable EBITDA was EUR 40.0 (40.0) million, or 8.6 (8.2) percent of net sales, a decrease of 0.1 percent.
  • EBITDA was EUR 40.4 (38.0) million, or 8.7 (7.8) percent of net sales, an increase of 6.4 percent.
  • Net cash flow from operating activities was EUR -54.2 (-68.1) million.
  • Earnings per share were EUR 0.09 (0.04).
  • Net debt / comparable EBITDA (rolling 12 months) was 3.0 (3.3).

Earnings guidance

In 2025, Anora’s comparable EBITDA is expected to be EUR 70-75 million (2024: EUR 68.9 million).

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@Rauli_Juva has finished his quick comment, “surprisingly” on the same lines as me, I was a bit afraid he’d still ruin my victory celebration :slight_smile: : Anora Q3’25 -pikakommentti: Odotuksia parempi tulos, ohjeistus viittaa parannukseen myös Q4:llä - Inderes

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There’s certainly reason to celebrate when the lower end of the guidance starts to look possible :slight_smile:

By the way, I had missed that there was already a small new comment in the Q2 report about the Globus insurance dispute. No decision has been reached, but some matter is now being disputed with the insurance company in arbitration. The company did not provide any further information on this. It is naturally to be assumed that the insurance company does not want to pay and Anora would want compensation.

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Rauli discussed Anora’s goings-on with CEO Kirsi Puntila and CFO Stein Eriksen. :slight_smile:

Topics:

00:00 Start
00:12 Q3 news
04:22 Market
05:56 Wine segment growth in Sweden
07:16 Efficiency program
08:13 Outlook

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Meanwhile, while @Rauli_Juva was listening to Kirsi Puntila’s enticing drink listings, DNB Carnegie had already crunched the numbers for a new report, from Kauppalehti’s flash news: DNB Carnegie raises Anora’s target price to 3.40 euros (previously 3.20 euros), reiterates hold recommendation

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Blossa ranked second in Hesari’s (Helsingin Sanomat) comparison of non-alcoholic mulled wines. In the results interview, the importance of the mulled wine season (and the growing importance of non-alcoholic beverages) was highlighted.

I wonder if glögi sales could really reach those kinds of prospects? That would be nice.

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Blossa is commendably usually visible in stores, and it is good, I mean, with a drop. With Anora’s red wine. I still have to say that perhaps the best-selling one is missing from that? Marlin’s dilutable mulled wine concentrate in a glass bottle, which unfortunately performs very well in taste, I mean, when fortified. This is my own favorite, because I don’t have to carry water home. Lest I give the wrong impression, as a health and sports enthusiast, I’m constantly on the fence about whether one can morally own the share.. I’ll probably sell when the new CEO has completed their restructuring.. Or switch to Qt, if I can get it much cheaper still..

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Surely this has been discussed multiple times in this thread, but what is the state’s (Solidium) interest in owning Anora? Wouldn’t this be one of the clearest targets from which to divest once the valuation improves even a little?

I also researched and browsed Anora more closely as I was pleased with the positive profitability development. It seems that if the trend in cost structure/profitability continues, there are good chances for meeting the guidance. If the market picks up even a little next year, supported by Anora’s new efficiency measures, could it be possible to achieve quite good profitability?

Portfolio manager Juha Varis has also promised a positive earnings impact from Blossa this year compared to the reference period :smiling_face_with_sunglasses:



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Tightening alcohol taxation is probably always a threat to Anora; Solidium’s share ownership ensures that they won’t so easily shoot themselves in the foot? That said, if even strong alcoholic beverages came to grocery stores like in the Danish model, then ownership could be natural for Orkla. They also sell other unhealthy things, for example Kalevi’s chocolate (over-sugared). The same main owner is.

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Funny coincidence, I myself just went through Canita As’s other holdings and wondered why Anora wouldn’t fit very well under Orkla too.

Knowing the state’s economic situation, Solidium’s representative on the board probably hopes for as large a dividend as possible again in the spring, but for long-term growth, the money could be used for other things as well.

Here is a new company report on Anora from Raul after the Q3 results. :slight_smile:

Anora’s Q3 result exceeded our expectations despite a decline in revenue. The company reiterated its guidance, and we raised our forecast to the lower end of it. The company is holding a CMD this week, where its strategy and targets for the coming years will be presented. We expect a slight improvement in results for the coming years, but the weak growth outlook for the alcohol markets limits the company’s opportunities. We reiterate our ‘add’ recommendation and a target price of 3.3 euros, as the expected return remains reasonable.

Quoted from the report:

Efficiency program should support next year’s result

The company announced an efficiency program in September, aiming for savings of EUR 7 million starting next year. Personnel reduction negotiations related to the program will be conducted during the rest of the year, so there should be no significant impact on this year’s operational costs or results. However, we believe the company will record one-off costs related to the program in Q4.

https://www.inderes.fi/research/anora-q325-ohjeistus-saavutettavissa-hyvan-q3n-jalkeen

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Here are more conclusions from other analysts from Kauppalehti’s flash news:

SEB Bank raises Anora’s target price to 3.20 euros (previously 3.10 euros), reiterates hold recommendation

Nordea raises Anora’s target price to 4.70 euros (previously 4.60), reiterates buy recommendation

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OP maintains its Buy recommendation and slightly raises its target price → €3.7

“Anora’s Q3 result exceeded forecasts in terms of adjusted EBITDA, while sales
fell slightly short of expectations. The stronger-than-expected Q3 gave more credibility
to the guidance and reduced the risk of an earnings warning. We raised our forecasts
due to efficiency measures for both Q4/25 and the coming year.
Following the forecast changes, our target price rises to EUR 3.70 (previously 3.60) and
we reiterate our BUY recommendation. We estimate that the new strategy to be
published on the capital markets day on November 5 and the first visible earnings improvement measures
will gradually raise the valuation closer to key peers, together with a strong
dividend yield in the coming years (8-11%).”

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On this brisk rising day, it’s also worth noting Anora’s Capital Markets Day on Wednesday, the program has been published: https://www.inderes.fi/videos/anora-capital-markets-day-2025

You can follow the live broadcast here, it will be interesting to hear if the clinking of glasses has been successfully faded out of the broadcast :slight_smile: : Anora's Capital Markets Day

I think following that broadcast will also be possible from the first link I shared.

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Anora published its financial targets for the next strategy period already today: Sisäpiiritieto: Anora päivittää strategiansa sekä asettaa uudet keskipitkän aikavälin taloudelliset tavoitteet kannattavuuden parantamiseksi ja markkinakasvun ylittämiseksi | Kauppalehti

Anora will publish its updated strategy and new mid-term financial targets before its Capital Markets Day, to be held in Helsinki on 5 November 2025. These mid-term financial targets replace the previous financial targets published in November 2022, which extended until 2030.

“Our updated strategy brings us back to basics – it improves profitability and puts Anora back on a sustainable growth path. We will achieve this by simplifying our operations, strengthening margins and cash flow, and focusing on the growth of our core brands. At the same time, we will selectively advance in new channels and categories, supported by disciplined international growth,” says Kirsi Puntila, CEO of Anora.

“Sustainability and responsibility will continue to guide our decisions. As a multi-channel player, we reach consumers in all sales channels in the Nordics and Baltics. Our gaze is on the future: we strongly believe in our core brands, while also recognizing the need to expand our portfolio in low-alcohol and alcohol-free beverages, invest in innovations, and transition to more sustainable packaging solutions,” Kirsi Puntila continues.

A Clear Plan to Achieve Targets Through an EBITDA Improvement Potential of EUR 50 Million

Before investing in growth, Anora will strengthen its operational and financial foundations. The updated strategy period, extending to the end of 2028, is built on three consecutive phases:

Fit (2025-2026): Immediate efficiency measures aiming for approximately EUR 20 million in gross savings at the EBITDA level through procurement efficiency, organizational streamlining, and operational effectiveness.

Fix (2025-2027): Structural measures to improve profitability and competitiveness, including supply chain and product portfolio optimization. The aim is to create additional potential, estimated at EUR 20 million at the EBITDA level by 2028.

Focus (from 2026 onwards): Growth measures aiming for a gross impact of approximately EUR 10 million at the EBITDA level through core business growth, selected new channels, and disciplined international expansion.

Through these phases, Anora aims to strengthen its position in its key categories and channels in Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, and the Baltics, and to expand into growth areas such as ready-to-drink mixes and low-alcohol and alcohol-free beverages, as well as selected export markets.

Updated Financial Targets until the end of 2028

Anora’s Board of Directors has decided on the following mid-term financial targets until the end of 2028:

  • Profitability: 6-7 percent annual comparable EBITDA growth (EUR 85-90 million by the end of 2028).

  • Growth: Organic net sales growth to exceed market growth.

  • Indebtedness: Net interest-bearing debt to comparable EBITDA (last 12 months) ratio below 2.5x. Debt levels may temporarily exceed this in connection with acquisitions.

Longer-term financial targets for the period after 2028 will be communicated later during the strategy period.

Anora’s three capital allocation principles are:

  • Investments in organic growth including core business and best-performing brands, as well as new product launches.

  • Dividend policy: Dividend payout ratio of 50-70 percent of net profit for the financial year.

  • Selected acquisitions to strengthen portfolio and market position.

Anora’s Sustainability Targets

Anora is committed to achieving net-zero emissions across its entire value chain by 2050. Anora’s short- and long-term sustainability targets remain unchanged and are presented in the 2024 Sustainability Report.

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Here’s an initial comment on these; I’ll write in more detail for Thursday morning once I’ve listened to the CMD itself.

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Rather modest plans; I would have hoped for more aggressive cost-cutting and front-loaded profitability improvement. The company would have much more fat to cut after the Altia/Arcus merger and the acquisition of Globus Wine.

Well, hopefully, we will still achieve the targeted profitability level by 2028 and improve further from there. And let’s hope that in the future, the worst acquisitions will be avoided – rather, distribute the cash flow to owners as dividends.

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Even at the targeted 2028 level, EPS would clearly exceed 0.5 euros, meaning at a P/E = 10 level, the share price would go above 5 euros.. Often, when earnings rise, higher P/E ratios are suddenly easily accepted, and for example, with a P/E ratio of 14, the share price would already be over 7 euros :grin:

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Rauli interviewed CEO Kirsi Puntila and CFO Stein Eriksen regarding CMD. :slight_smile:

Topics:

00:00 Introduction
00:11 Strategy revision
01:35 Main points of the new strategy
02:59 New targets
04:13 Expectations about the market
04:40 Focus on core markets
06:24 Logistic operations
07:10 Management shareholdings

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