Admicom - Pioneer of construction industry digitalization

I’ve got the impression that Admicom’s cost discipline might not have been on a sustainable footing in the long run. Strong growth requires structures, support, experts, etc. By constantly squeezing the lemon, you end up with “organizational debt.”

Quite a few small companies are very profitable when the CEO does everything from marketing to accounting, middle management isn’t needed, communication is easy because there are few people, etc. As the scale grows, phases often occur where profitability suffers at least for a while as the organization is “strengthened” so that personnel don’t burn out or performance doesn’t suffer. Then again, once a certain size is reached, it should show up nicely as a swelling bottom line (also known as economies of scale). Profitability in small firms is also often boosted by share ownership. For example, probably all of Admicom’s original employees, down to the cleaners, became multimillionaires. It’s easy to keep wages in check when the rising share price elevates all employees to the Jyväskylä nobility.

In Admicom’s case, however, the growth investments have been reflected as some growth even in a very difficult market! So I might not criticize this company right away, although Häll, as the founder, certainly looks at the company more closely.

On the other hand, I sympathize with Häll’s view in the context of the small-cap scene in recent years generally. Everywhere they only talk about growth, growth… and a bit more growth. In practice, the last few years have been catastrophic for almost all small companies (except for someone like Viafin), because they’ve stepped on the gas in a market that isn’t growing. Costs and investments swell, but because the top line doesn’t grow or grows very slowly, profitabilities have collapsed.

If you look at the direction of communication and NUMBERS of large companies on the Helsinki Stock Exchange, I think profitability has become much more prominent in recent years. Clearly, they have started following the Swedish model, where companies don’t move a muscle unless they get a certain return on capital for the investment. An entrepreneur once told me that the Swedes have a “kusiraja” (piss limit/hurdle rate) (is that an official term in Stockholm meetings of the Wallenbergs and other moneyed families?) below which they don’t make investments. Capital has a cost: it shouldn’t be splashed around on just any project.

In Finnish small-caps, there is still a strong cult of revenue and EBITDA growth, even though looking more closely at the investments, they make no economic sense. Growth for the sake of growth can be fun empire building, but it is devastating for shareholder value. I understand that from a management perspective, it can be sweet when you can post strong revenue growth figures on LinkedIn (for which you get huge pats on the back) and demand more pay as the organization grows. But once again, Finland’s already scarce capital is funneled like fuel into a bonfire and goes up in smoke.

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The company hasn’t really been able to dodge the construction sector downturn as I would have hoped. In Finland, there is talk of new massive cuts again, which certainly won’t increase consumption. We’ve been waiting for a turnaround in construction for quite a while now, and it just doesn’t seem to be starting. For my taste, the company is a bit too “married” to the situation in Finland, and that’s why I removed it from my portfolio with a decent profit. Well, Aallon stayed there, which is even more stuck in the same situation :smiley:

Overall, the company was much more cyclical than I thought, and I took a slightly more bearish stance. It’s also a bit difficult to perceive the competitive advantages.

Hopefully, though, the situation turns around for both Finland and the company!

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You are absolutely right. At Admicom, salaries weren’t the draw for experts, but rather the good stock incentives. As the IPO loomed, everything was squeezed out of the machine in the style of the gaming industry’s “crunch.” Absolutely everything.

In that sense, Admicom lived on borrowed time, and you can’t fight the gravity of corporate life forever—this isn’t some sweatshop, after all. (Or should we say the Lapland tourism industry these days…)

You can infer the rest from the tax statistics. Some left to become gentlemen of leisure or reduced their workload to sensible levels. There’s likely no longer the same incentive to push against the limiter, because they don’t have to.

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The transaction involves 33,413 shares, which corresponds to approximately 0.7% of the market value. Unit price €32.725

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Almanakka has written about Admicom after Q1. :slight_smile:

Valuation: Despite the post-results development, the stock has become cheaper quite quickly since the last update. Compared to its own history, it’s actually quite cheap. You can get it at all-time-low multiples at the bottom of the cycle. I also find this appealing, even though I wasn’t particularly thrilled by this earnings release, co-determination negotiations, and guidance risk.

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I’m pondering CEO Leisto’s AI statements. In the short term, defensive margin protection is understandable, but what about future growth? Is Admicom “Nordeafying” and just polishing a single diamond to make it shine brighter?

The speech emphasizes the nature of system of record data and its role in training AI. Could this data actually be the “meat,” rather than the ERP software itself? In other words, should Admicom rather take a hit on margins and capture the market to acquire customers and more data?

If data is ultimately the most valuable piece of the business cake, it might even be profitable to pay competitors for data delivery, if you can refine it into valuable content and sell it back in a processed form. In other words, in the long run, Admicom shouldn’t think of itself as (just) a software company? Saascalypse wouldn’t be a horror story, but an opportunity for change (boy, that last sentence really smelled like consultant-speak).

I really don’t know the construction industry, so the freedom to toss ideas around feels wonderfully light.

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Shares into the shredder. This removes 1.6% of the total shares :shortcake:

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Here are Atte’s comments on the conclusion of Admicom’s change negotiations. :slight_smile:

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This was indeed pleasant news. There has been discussion here as well regarding how little ownership the insiders have. However, these aren’t just cosmetic €2,000 purchases; we are talking about sums approaching six figures per person. This total of slightly under 200k in insider shopping doesn’t change the big picture as such, but it’s a nice positive signal for this year alongside the share buybacks. In previous years, I think the company has shown quite a few “red flags,” staff turnover, etc. It’s nice to get something more positive as well.

It is also great that the CEO has a strong AI background from previous roles. One wonders if the choice of CEO happened to be a lucky match for the AI era by chance, or if it was a conscious decision during recruitment.

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Indeed, and for the investor community, management buying their own shares tends to be a more significant positive signal than management selling, which is often perceived negatively and causes quite a stir on some forums. There can always be a legion of different personal reasons behind selling, whereas a buy is always a buy and an investment.

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Inside Information, Profit Warning: Admicom Plc Lowers Its Guidance

As the challenging market situation in the construction industry continues, Admicom Plc (“Admicom” or the “Company”) is lowering its guidance for Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) and net sales for the current year. The recovery of the construction market in Finland at the beginning of 2026 has not commenced as forecasted at the end of 2025, which has not only affected sales but has also manifested as slower-than-expected development in revenue- and user-based billing. Customer churn continues to be driven primarily by customer bankruptcies and financial difficulties, which accounted for approximately 30% of churn during the first five months of the year. Furthermore, acquisitions and mergers resulting from the consolidation of the construction market have accounted for up to 15% of customer churn.

High customer churn combined with low sales results in the first two months of the year is particularly reflected in Admicom’s net sales development. While it is possible to grow Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) more rapidly during the second half of the year, the impact on net sales is slower. As the challenging market situation persists, uncertainties regarding growth in the second half of the year have increased.

Admicom’s original financial guidance was based on the assumption that reaching the upper end of the growth guidance would require either a faster recovery of the construction market or a small acquisition. Admicom does not rule out the possibility of an acquisition during 2026. However, the rapid development of artificial intelligence has caused uncertainty in the SaaS (Software as a Service) equity markets, which has also been reflected in Admicom’s share price. The value of the Company’s shares has decreased significantly compared to the beginning of 2026. Valuation levels of unlisted companies have not changed to the same extent, which currently makes value creation through acquisitions more challenging. Nevertheless, Admicom is continuously developing its M&A project pipeline and aims to find ways to execute acquisitions even in this market at reasonable valuation levels.

The implementation of Admicom’s updated strategy has started well in many areas. However, in a challenging market, the benefits from projects intended to accelerate the company’s growth have not yet materialized as planned. During the second quarter, Admicom conducted change negotiations aimed at addressing the need to shift the focus of resource allocation to better support the chosen growth strategy.

Despite the weakened growth forecasts, Admicom maintains its original guidance regarding profitability.

New Financial Guidance for 2026

The company estimates that in 2026, Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) will grow by 3–10%. Annual Recurring Revenue in 2025 was EUR 37.8 million.

Total net sales are estimated to grow by 2–6% from 2025. Total net sales in 2025 were EUR 37.7 million.

Adjusted EBITDA is estimated to be 31–36% of net sales.

Previous Financial Guidance for 2026

The company estimated that in 2026, Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) would grow by 6–12%. Annual Recurring Revenue in 2025 was EUR 37.8 million.

Total net sales were estimated to grow by 5–10% from 2025. Total net sales in 2025 were EUR 37.7 million.

Adjusted EBITDA was estimated to be 31–36% of net sales.

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Talk about perfect timing, I just opened an Admicom position in my portfolio today :face_with_hand_over_mouth:

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If you look at Inderes’ forecasts, for example, they were expecting 5% revenue growth for this year.

With the new guidance, that will probably drop by 1–2 percentage points, but in the big picture (DCF model, cash flows over many years) or at this stage of the cycle, is that perhaps just a drop in the ocean? This year is a write-off anyway, whether the growth is 3%, 4%, or 5% :speak_no_evil_monkey:

One definitely has to wait a year or two at a minimum, but surely the cycle will turn again at some point? The stock isn’t exactly expensive based on trough-of-the-cycle earnings.

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I also bought Admicom for the first time last week. I’m not deeply familiar with the company yet, but I got a pretty good overview by reading the extensive report. I decided to buy largely because the construction industry will eventually start to recover, and the company’s valuation is very moderate. It’s quite possible we might still head lower, but if you think long-term, we should be at quite reasonable buying prices now. I’ll eat my hat if the Finnish construction industry is “game over” and AI destroys this firm in the process.

Regarding the insider buys last week, I was thinking that surely they must have known a profit warning (negari) was likely coming soon, yet they still chose to buy? Or could it be that these CEO and CFO shares are some kind of option exercises etc.? They bought shares for the exact same total value, which is why this came to mind. Of course, it could just be that they chatted among themselves and decided both would buy this much, etc. :smiley:

Admicom has also been beaten down so much by large fund sell-offs etc., so it will be interesting to see the reaction tomorrow. This profit warning didn’t look too ugly to my eyes, so if there’s one final “capitulation vomit” (oksennus) tomorrow, I’ll have to consider potentially adding to my position.

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From the release:

The value of the company’s share has decreased significantly compared to the beginning of 2026. The valuation levels of unlisted companies have not changed to a corresponding extent, which makes value creation through acquisitions more challenging at the moment.

Theory is lost here once again. :smiley: If an acquisition is made with cash or debt, the valuation level of one’s own share relative to the valuation of unlisted companies doesn’t matter at all.

An acquisition creates value if it generates a return higher than the cost of capital. As a rule of thumb, that’s 10%.

For example, if a target is bought at a P/E of 10x and it grows by 10% per year as part of Admicom’s sales engine, Admicom’s rule-of-thumb cost of capital is exceeded immediately. In layman’s terms, the earnings yield improves annually from 10% → 11 → 12.1%, and so on.

For instance, Constellation Software, a slightly larger software outfit, hasn’t particularly complained about the drop in its own share price; instead, the company’s acquisition pipeline is currently the largest in its history. :smiley:

If the valuation of one’s own share mattered, it would mean that when the share is expensive, the company could buy any old junk just to “create value.” However, we can empirically observe that firms buying just anything tend to crash. :smiley:

If Admicom intends to use its shares as part of the deal, which is always regrettable dilution for owners, the calculation obviously changes. But if someone from the company is reading this, please do not dilute your share base. :smiley:

I recently rambled more about value creation in acquisitions in the “Vartti” segment.

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If this was one of those investment story red herrings to soften the news.

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It is also possible that the comment was intended to emphasize that potential targets are not at “buy” prices, even though the prices of listed companies might suggest otherwise.

Admittedly, it’s a strangely worded paragraph, so who knows.

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I think the content of the paragraph is quite sensible, if the intention is to communicate that the relative prices of potential acquisition targets are too expensive and, therefore, repurchasing their own shares is the most logical way to allocate capital at the moment.

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At some point, there was a lot of excitement on this forum regarding multiple arbitrage. You buy a company at, say, a P/E of 10 while your own stock is valued at a multiple of 15. Profit is then generated for the owners at the moment of purchase—amounting to 50% of the purchase price—as long as investors are willing to accept the new valuation.

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