I’ve been thinking the exact same thing. With this share price development (and simultaneous positive business development despite challenging times), Admicom might not be listed on the stock exchange for much longer.
5 Likes
Admicom as an acquisition target was last discussed in a video made in January, at 20:50.
The stock was 46 euros then, meaning that with current valuations, building that acquisition case is still considerably easier, for example, from a private equity investor’s perspective. An Admicom acquisition case would be easy to build through an LBO (Leveraged Buyout) model (where a private equity investor buys out a company from the stock exchange with significant debt leverage), as Admicom’s strong cash flow would quickly reduce the debt load. Depending on the buyer’s views, the offered premium to the current share price could be quite substantial, and the math would still work.
From an industrial buyer’s perspective, Admicom could also be an interesting target. Admicom has a strong market position in Finland, and achieving something similar through organic means (and/or small acquisitions) is very expensive and would take a very long time at best. In that sense, a merger of Admicom and Smartcraft could be sensible on paper, if one considers, for example, achievable economies of scale. In this case, however, it would be a merger and to some extent a share exchange. I do not believe that, at current valuations, this would be a sensible move for Admicom’s shareholders, and I do not believe the company’s board would approve it. So, even in the case of an industrial buyer, I think a successful deal would require a cash offer with a large premium relative to the current share price.
Regarding the ownership structure, Alcur Fonder’s approximately 10% ownership is one factor hindering a successful bid. Alcur disclosed its ownership last August, so the fund’s average price is inevitably at least closer to 50 euros. I don’t believe they would be willing to sell if the offer was below this or even roughly at this level.
36 Likes
Updated owner lists released. Phew, the foreign investors have reduced their holdings by 130,000 shares and Säästöpankki Itämeri by 60,000 shares (10,000 left).
Many new investors have joined the Top-100 list.
Foreign investors might continue to lighten their positions, but could this selling wave from Itämeri be over now?
21 Likes
Those in SEB’s nominee register have reduced their holdings by 133,000 shares, with over 2 million shares still remaining. If sales under SEB’s name continue, the share price will certainly remain under significant pressure. The Baltic Sea fund (Itämeri-rahasto) is almost a side issue in the grand scheme of things, at least going forward.
2 Likes
There are numerous funds under that SEB nominee register. Currently, the downturn in small-cap companies is prevalent in Sweden as well, and many funds there also appear to be selling off their holdings, some of which are forced sales (redemptions). If one believes that Nordic small-cap companies will still rock one day, this selling pressure can also be seen as a buying opportunity. In the short term, of course, it is painful when an individual large fund’s sales into relatively thin liquidity are a bit like an elephant trampling through a china shop.
38 Likes
“Today, we increased Admicom’s weighting in the Model Portfolio by 2 percentage points, bringing its weight in the portfolio to just over 9%. Admicom’s share has been under significant pressure in recent months, as forced sales by Nordic small-cap funds have battered the stock, in addition to AI fears. In our view, the threat of AI currently appears overblown, at least for Nordic ERP providers. We therefore see the current situation as a clear buying opportunity, and Admicom has never before been available at such low multiples (2026e EV/EBIT 10x).”
28 Likes
I can’t say exactly how much this was discussed, but at least I personally wondered and perhaps even publicly brought up (I should scroll through the thread 
) how Swedish funds pushed the stock to the roof in 2020–21, and at that time, many of us Finnish owners sold. For once, a transfer of wealth from Sweden to Finland!
Yes, these “forced movements” of funds should be noted in both directions.
30 Likes
Here’s Ate’s pre-game, as Admicom releases its Q1 results on Tuesday, April 14 
We expect the company’s revenue growth to have remained moderate in the early part of the year due to a weak construction market. However, we estimate that profit improved significantly from a relatively soft comparison period after the growth in cost structure stabilized following the strong investments of previous years. The recovery of the Finnish construction market seems to remain subdued this year, so the Q1 report is unlikely to provide significant new information regarding the market situation compared to the analyst call before the silent period. AI fears have pushed Admicom’s stock valuation to historically low levels, which we currently see as a buying opportunity.
6 Likes
Own shares held go into the shredder.
And a new buyback program of up to 1.5 million euros is launched:
57 Likes
Change negotiations
9 Likes
Profitability is lagging according to the robot comment.
19 Likes
| Other operating expenses, EUR 1,000 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1,429 | 1,393 | 1,067 | 1,397 | 1,703 |
Credit losses from customer bankruptcies or something else? Perhaps this explains the difference in relation to Ate’s profitability forecast.
7 Likes
Those other business expenses indeed differed from my own expectations. So, it’s quite possible that those increased credit losses are also reflected there to some extent.
13 Likes
“During the quarter, our customer base was hit by one exceptionally large bankruptcy, and attrition related to payment difficulties was otherwise high. Admicom’s business risk is 2 balls and Lemonsoft’s is three. As an owner of Lemon, I’d be interested to know why this is? Isn’t the construction industry, however, the most cyclical…?”
5 Likes
The recovery in the construction industry still doesn’t look very rapid or promising. Furthermore, new customers established in the future will only start needing Adminco’s (Admincon) software after they have stabilized their operations, meaning all this potential future growth will be reflected in the results with a delay. Is there enough initial growth potential in current customers (if they stay afloat) before new companies become customers with a delay? The stock market, of course, anticipates at least half a year in advance, but I would still estimate there’s a risk of dead money here, perhaps until the end of the year (I currently own shares).
7 Likes
Here’s a new company report from Ate on Admicom, regarding Q1
We reiterate our buy recommendation for Admicom, but adjust the target price to EUR 45.0 (previously EUR 50.0). The company’s Q1 results were slightly below our expectations, and based on the outlook comments, we estimate that full-year growth will be towards the lower end of the guidance range (5-10%). Our earnings forecasts for the coming years decreased by approximately 5% based on the report, but the stock’s reaction on the results day was still positive. In our view, this partly indicates that the stock’s valuation (2026e 11x) has already been hit enough due to AI fears. We still believe that the undervaluation will unwind in the coming years through accelerating growth. The company’s change negotiations and the new share buyback program also indicate that the company is not resting on its laurels amidst rapid AI development.
12 Likes
Admicom is certainly testing one’s patience. As a novice “investor,” this is one of my first stock picks that isn’t just a lottery ticket; rather, the stock purchase had solid fundamentals. I bought it about three years ago, if I recall correctly, and at the time, my investment thesis was largely based on the eventual recovery of the construction market. Now, I’ve been patiently waiting for that day for about three years, and there’s still no real turnaround in sight. This is starting to resemble the classic late stage of a bear market, where everyone collectively concludes that nothing will ever come of it, and they reluctantly sell off the remaining shares while they can still get something for them. I also notice this kind of small capitulation in the stock’s sentiment, reading discussions here and elsewhere, where the stock is declared a completely dead investment instrument.
My view is still that one day the market will recover. So, let’s wait another three years if necessary. I believe that a market upswing would be quite evident in Admicom’s results, as despite everything, I think they have performed quite well in a historically poor market.
Recent share buybacks are also a small positive sign. The internationalization operation raises some question marks for me, but let’s hope it doesn’t lead the company to ruin. Unlikely, I think. Threats include AI and increasing competition. In my opinion, one rather significant positive factor is that the CEO has a strong AI background and seemed genuinely well-informed about the situation. Although, at this point, it’s difficult for anyone to predict the impact of AI. Nevertheless, the right CEO seems to have coincidentally (or intentionally?) landed in this situation. The initiation of change negotiations was also a good sign in my opinion, as it indicates a reaction to a changing situation.
There are certainly question marks in the air, such as the management’s almost non-existent ownership in the company. I’m personally looking beyond one more construction cycle, unless the company genuinely messes something up badly. It’s possible that in five years, we might conclude that the construction sector never recovered and building ceased entirely in Finland. However, I don’t believe in this scenario. I’m following the company with interest and hope for better times soon. I suspect it will be a bumpy ride for the stock in the coming years.
15 Likes
The company still hasn’t seemed to admit the real customer churn; instead, the only reasons given have been bankruptcies/payment difficulties. If even in my own immediate circle there is a construction entrepreneur who switched from Admicom to Netvisor, I find it hard to believe this is an isolated case. He described Admicom as complex and damn expensive.
15 Likes
YLE’s story, so the new management has something to prove…
In the autumn of 2024, veteran entrepreneur Matti Häll made a deal worth over 50 million euros. 21 percent of the software company Admicom’s shares changed hands; Häll was the seller. The deal was reported by Keskisuomalainen.
As a result of the massive deal, Häll paid the most taxes in Central Finland last year, totaling over 10 million euros.
Häll’s earnings of nearly 31 million euros were the third highest in the entire country.
On tax day, Häll answers the phone from Spain.
– I’ve been going on eight-kilometer runs in the mornings, reading the newspapers, and receiving calls regarding business. My fitness improves here because it doesn’t rain and it isn’t cold, he notes.
Häll gave up the rest of his Admicom shares because the company was being taken in a direction that did not please him.
Häll states that the company he founded was once made extremely profitable. Since then, those running it began increasing expenses and eating away at profitability.
– The Swedes took it over, and you couldn’t influence anything there. I hadn’t been on the board for years. Expenses were increased year after year. There was no point in owning it; it didn’t look like a business anymore, Häll reflects.
22 Likes
Netvisor is nowhere near the same level as Admicom, unless some other construction software has been brought in alongside it. With Netvisor, you can only handle financial management; it doesn’t have proper project management.
If your acquaintance’s construction firm is the “man and a van” type, then it probably works, but it’s certainly not enough on its own for even a slightly larger construction firm.
18 Likes