In my opinion, Aallon is not a pure-bred serial acquirer, nor does the company profile itself as one in its own communications. The company also does not report inorganic growth separately, and nowadays, the purchase prices and often the profitability of smaller deals remain undisclosed. This always makes it difficult for an outsider to interpret what was bought and at what price. And since acquisitions occur on an annually “regularly irregular” basis, I don’t know how these should or could be modeled in advance.
How should these future acquisitions then be taken into account in the valuation? In the latest analysis, I state once again: “We continue to believe that the company’s acquisition strategy creates value and that its consistent implementation will gradually increase the company’s fair value in the coming years.” So, if and when acquisitions continue and are reflected in the company’s bottom line, the value will gradually rise. It then depends on the quality of the company’s execution and partly on market sentiment as to how much of a head start should be taken in the stock’s valuation regarding this positive M&A option. Currently, very little of it is baked into the valuation.
And regarding that question about old analyses: if you look at the earnings forecasts from February 14, 2025, expectations for the coming years were higher than they are now, even though some acquisitions have taken place in the meantime. In other words, the decrease in earnings forecasts combined with lower acceptable valuation multiples explains the difference in target prices.