Wuhan Coronavirus (Part 2)

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Continuing the discussion from Wuhan Coronavirus (Osa 1) - #10520 käyttäjältä OldFeki - Sijoittaminen - Inderes forum.

Previous discussions:

Original starting message from @N.K:

Let’s create a separate thread for the Wuhan Corona so we don’t clutter other threads, the information flood from this could be large. (No important things will go unnoticed if someone shares something like that)

Aston already posted a link to a live map of the virus spread

Some companies are already developing a cure

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-virus-vaccines/work-to-start-on-three-possible-china-virus-vaccines-epidemic-response-group-idUSKBN1ZM21P

This, however, could accelerate the spread of the virus:

In my opinion, this is not such a serious matter, at least not yet. What do you think is the state of general healthcare in China? Can everyone even afford to go there? In Western countries, people are probably better at seeking treatment when needed, and medicines are generally more readily available.

What do you think?

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Pörssien suunta (Osa 2)
Inderesin kahvihuone (Osa 3)
Wuhan Coronavirus (Osa 1)
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By the way, it sounds terribly ominous that we need to create a “Coronavirus Part 2” thread when “Part 1” gets full… :smiley:

Hopefully @OldFeki will continue his reporting throughout this Part 2 as well :muscle:

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@OldFeki

Was yesterday’s Jyväskylä news some kind of fake, or have those infections not been statistically recorded yet?

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Vaccine production and distribution are faltering, new common variants, two booster-vaccinated individuals infected, 150 infections out of nowhere in Jyväskylä…

I guess we’ll be sitting here doing remote work well into 2022 :smiley: All gas money into stonks.

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They will certainly be seen with a delay. So today… tomorrow…

We are now only a few days away from the 1-year anniversary, which is the day I wrote the first daily post that in some way resembles the current form of these morning reports. People still enjoy the writing – it helps me get through day after day for now. :slight_smile:

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Yesterday, Helsingin Sanomat had a summary of the vaccines:

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Source: Pystytäänkö muilla rokotteilla korvaamaan Astra Zenecan mahdollisesti jättämää aukkoa? | HS.fi

Additionally, yesterday KL reported that Johnson & Johnson (johnsson&johnsson) will also primarily supply vaccines to the United States (Rokotevalmistaja Johnson & Johnsonilta lunta tupaan: Toimitukset Euroopassa alkaisivat vasta huhtikuussa – Sanofi lupaa EU:lle lisää Pfizerin rokoteannoksia | Kauppalehti)

We’ll probably be working remotely well into 2022 :smiley: All gas money into stonks.

I’m starting to fear something similar. I might not go all-in on Finnair or NoHo yet. Of course, mortality will surely decrease with the vaccination of risk groups, but I don’t believe that the world will dare to open up much during this year if vaccine coverage is at best 50-60%. Who in, say, France (where vaccine resistance is high) has the guts to say that society is now opening up, and if you didn’t want the vaccine, tough luck.

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Thank you very much for taking the time to write these reports. You have compiled the significant events very well. So well, in fact, that it’s not even necessary to follow other news. My own media literacy regarding corona is almost starting to wane, as I don’t have to put in any more effort to figure things out than reading your morning briefing. ..some conspiracy theorist would surely be pleased with your position. You could easily throw in a few “your own facts,” and many would fall for it like a charm :sweat_smile:

But if it ever starts to get difficult, the receiving end here will certainly understand if your update doesn’t appear one morning. And you can always write, for example, every other day, or a kind of weekly summary, if needed.

With this message, I want to reiterate my support, but also give you (on my part) the “freedom” to lighten the load if you ever feel like it.

Stop if it ever gets difficult, but I hope you would still continue, even occasionally, then.

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In Jyväskylä, on top of everything, the appointment system has crashed, so you can’t get tested at the moment. I don’t know if the problems affect the whole country or just Jyväskylä?

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I am not an investor, nor do I follow other discussion forums on Inderes, but today I had to create a user account. This is just to thank user @OldFeki for these absolutely wonderful and comprehensive morning reports.

Somehow, by chance, at the end of February last year, I ended up on this forum and in this discussion through googling, and ever since then, I have been checking the morning review here every morning. Overall, this discussion has been a really important, perhaps even the most important, single source of information for me during this corona period.

I hope the discussion continues to be as interesting until the end of this pandemic and that @OldFeki continues his excellent work. Big thanks!

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I wonder how vaccine doses are prioritized here. A living example from Oulu, where some people in the central hospital and nursing homes have been vaccinated, but for example, in home care and security services, who visit the elderly, vaccination may, according to reports, be tentatively extended until April.

Slow. I would imagine them to be quite high on the priority list.

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How is that now?

https://www.verkkouutiset.fi/astra-zeneca-on-luvannut-nopeuttaa-toimituksia-britanniaan-vaittaa-irlantilaislehti/

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Novavax result 89.3%:

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Morning numbers (infections/deaths): 102.04M / 2.2M

The number of new infections (+601,212) remained almost at the previous day’s level yesterday, while the number of deaths (+16,388) saw a slight decrease. No records were broken at the top of the infection list. In the USA (+162,574), infection rates remain steady, but daily deaths (+3,908) are still remarkably high. In Europe (+206,096), the epidemic situation is also stable. Deaths (+5,762) decreased slightly from the previous day. Spain (+34,899) continues to lead the continent’s daily infection statistics, with the United Kingdom (+28,680) in second place.

In the USA, the trend of new Covid-19 infections continues to decline. This week, 16% fewer infections have been reported than last week. This information is based on a daily report published by the White House’s Covid team. The report stated that two-thirds of counties reported a decrease in infection rates over the past seven days. One-third of counties also reported a decrease in deaths. Over 1,900 counties, home to 95% of the US population, are still classified as hotspots or areas with persistently high infection rates and a risk of healthcare resource depletion. More than half of Americans live in counties where the proportion of positive tests out of all tests is 10% or more.

In the USA, a very familiar creature has made headlines – a politician who broke their promise. It was revealed that Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti had quietly received a Covid vaccination while visiting Dodger Stadium, the largest vaccination center in the entire USA. In the mayor’s defense, however, it can be stated that he had been working at the stadium as a volunteer for five days, and health authorities recommended he get vaccinated. The suspicions of foul play were mainly caused by Garcetti not mentioning receiving the vaccination at a press conference held on January 21, the day he was vaccinated. Currently, in Los Angeles, vaccines are available to those over 65, as well as healthcare and nursing home workers. The 49-year-old mayor insisted last month that he “would not jump the line, even though he could barely wait to get the vaccine.” He couldn’t wait, and he did jump the line.

South Carolina reported the first cases of the South African variant of the virus in the USA yesterday. According to state health officials, there is no common travel or other connection between the two detected cases. The B.1.351 variant has raised concerns due to its strong transmissibility and its ability to evade the immune responses of current vaccines. Yesterday, the pharmaceutical company Novavax, which reported its vaccine test results even though it is not yet approved, announced that its vaccine would need to be tailored for the South African variant. In phase two trials conducted in South Africa, 60% efficacy was achieved. Test results for HIV-positive individuals showed an efficacy of 49%, which fell below the accepted threshold. Otherwise, the overall efficacy of 89.3% in Novavax’s phase three trials conducted in the UK was good.

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Hans Kluge, the WHO’s regional director for Europe, said that 30 countries “have seen a significant decrease in infection rates in 14-day cumulative cases,” but infection rates remain “very high.” However, delays in vaccine deliveries are slowing down Europe’s recovery. German (+14,883) Health Minister Jens Spahn warned that Germany would suffer from a vaccine shortage for the next 10 weeks. At the same time, the German vaccination commission, STIKO, recommended the use of the AstraZeneca vaccine only for those 64 years old and younger, citing insufficient data on the vaccine’s efficacy in older people. France (+23,770) also reported a lower-than-expected delivery of vaccines. This time it was the Moderna vaccine, which is also expected to be delivered 25% less than originally announced in February. This was reported by the French Ministry of Health in a statement.

Belgian (+3,020) health authorities conducted an inspection of AstraZeneca’s Belgian production facility on Wednesday, at the request of the European Commission, “to verify that the delivery delays are due to production problems at the facility.” This was stated by France Dammel, spokesperson for the Belgian Minister of Health. The inspection is related to the ongoing dispute over AstraZeneca’s announcement that it will deliver 60% fewer vaccine doses to the EU than promised in the initial phase. “Belgian experts will examine the data together with Dutch, Italian, and Spanish experts,” Dammel said, adding that a report on the matter would be released in the coming days.

WHO researchers, who began their investigations in China (+52), are meeting with local scientists today. The research team plans to visit hospitals, laboratories, and marketplaces. The field research includes the Wuhan Institute of Virology, “those” famous Huanan seafood market, and the Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention laboratory. The WHO stated that it plans to meet with first responders who encountered the epidemic first, as well as the first people to fall ill with the disease during their visit. “All hypotheses are on the table as the team conducts its science-based work,” the WHO said, adding that “they must have all the support for their research and access to all the data they need.”

In Sweden, 4,085 new Covid-19 infections were reported yesterday. There were 95 deaths. The country’s chief epidemiologist, Anders Tegnell, answered citizens’ difficult questions yesterday in the country’s public broadcasting service SVT’s “Corona special” program. After the pizza-sounding program, Swedes’ worries probably eased, as, according to Tegnell, Sweden has good chances of holding wedding receptions of over 70 people next summer and that “the third and fourth” waves can be avoided by following restrictions and recommendations. The Prime Minister of neighboring Denmark (+668), Mette Frederiksen, announced yesterday that strict coronavirus restrictions would continue until the end of February. “We cannot stop the spread of the virus, but we can slow it down,” Frederiksen said. In Finland, 423 new virus infections were detected yesterday. Infections were detected very widely, in at least 84 municipalities. The municipalities with the highest number of infections yesterday were Helsinki (+69), Tampere (+49), and Vantaa (+41).

Johns Hopkins, Worldometers , Reuters1 , COVID tracker, TheBaselab , WHO1 , WHO2 , NYC tracker , COVID daily USA , THL kartta, FHM kartta (Ruotsi), Bloomberg , rt.live (USA state tracking) , EndCoronavirus , CoronaVirusIndex(yonzzu), Koronabotti (Twitter), Rokotustilanne maailmalla, Rokotustilanne (THL)

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This morning, with my coffee, I was thinking a bit about how and when we will get relief from the corona restrictions. I was also thinking about what kind of precedent this will set for the future.

Vaccinations are now quite understandably targeted at the part of the population with the highest risk of severe illness. On the other hand, the spread of infections is greatest precisely in those groups that will be vaccinated last. This means that monitoring focused on the number of infections and variant viruses will not justify lifting restrictions very early. Or restrictions may initially be lifted in nursing homes and social and health care work, which will not significantly affect the economy. On the other hand, the number of hospitalizations and deaths should, of course, decrease earlier, but this strategy of preventing the spread (and further mutation) of the variant virus could mean continuous restrictions even if the number of hospitalizations decreases, if the number of infections does not decrease.

It’s interesting to consider, as a thought experiment, that IF the vaccine prevented onward transmission, how much faster would the infection numbers decrease by vaccinating the age group / geographical area that spreads it the most. As it is, there is no official research data on onward transmission yet, and this strategy could not have been considered.

Vaccine schedules also vary greatly between countries, so I’m not really expecting travel to open up at all this year. If, by late summer, only (a pessimistic scenario) the elderly and risk groups in Finland (Europe) have been vaccinated, and in Southeast Asian holiday destinations, vaccines are hardly visible yet (as Europe and the US hoarded them), then Aurinkomatkat (a Finnish travel agency) doesn’t need to start preparing flights yet.

Another thing I was thinking about is future pandemics or even just more aggressive flu seasons. Has the threshold for introducing various restrictions now been permanently lowered, when the next aggressive flu virus fills the ward departments of health centers? I don’t consider this likely, but it is still one scenario that could bother us in the future. Or will, for example, restaurant capacity calculations be permanently changed?

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The Johnson & Johnson vaccine is on the same level as AstraZeneca, meaning 72% and 66% on a broader scale. This vaccine is special because it only requires one dose.

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17:30 EMA announces whether the AstraZeneca vaccine will be approved in the EU. Yle will have a live broadcast then. The assumption is apparently that it will be approved:

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The vaccine has been approved, but there are still ongoing discussions about the delivery problems.

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https://twitter.com/odds_12/status/1355171956262395908?s=20
Based on this, it’s already approved.
Edit: More info coming in that live broadcast

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W: Also awake and acting:

E: The link is somehow badly linked, as no summary is even visible.

Vaccine exports restricted

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I’m not exactly waiting for my turn to get the shot. Yours truly, I’ve had that corona stick up my nose five times now, as the kids bring home every bug they find from daycare :woman_shrugging: I just wonder how the hell I haven’t caught corona yet, and it’s all just been regular colds and coughs. *Knocks on wood

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Morning numbers (infections/deaths): 102.63M / 2.22M

New infections (+588,571) and deaths (+14,988) decreased on Friday. No new records were seen at the top of the infection list. Infection numbers worldwide have leveled off in recent weeks. In the majority of countries most affected by the pandemic, infection numbers remain steady or are slightly decreasing, but almost everywhere, the virus has a firm foothold in society. In Europe (+200,394), daily infection numbers and deaths (+5,721) have remained stable for a long time. Spain (+38,118) still holds the top spot in European infection numbers, where yesterday it had the third-highest number of infections in the world, immediately after the USA (+169,033) and Brazil (+58,691).

USA’s top epidemiologist Anthony Fauci warned yesterday that the test results of Johnson&Johnson’s vaccine concerning the South African virus variant are a “wake-up call.” Fauci said that the virus continues to mutate and vaccine manufacturers must be “agile to keep up” and ready to modify their vaccines. At yesterday’s White House press briefing, the new director of the USA’s Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Dr. Rochelle Walensky, also spoke, stating that 379 cases of the virus variant originating from the UK have already been found in 29 states. Walensky said that the USA is rapidly increasing its capacity for virus sequencing, which is required to identify new variants and determine their spread.

The CDC released new data yesterday, according to which 28 million vaccine doses have already been administered in the USA. Approximately 57% of vaccine doses, over 49 million, distributed to vaccination centers, have ended up in arms. About 23 million people have received the first dose of the vaccine. Approximately 5 million people have received both doses. Increasing vaccination numbers are possible only with the help of hundreds of thousands of volunteers who assist with various tasks at vaccination centers. LaKieva Williams leads a 7,000-person volunteer effort in the state of Georgia. She mentioned that volunteers sometimes receive the vaccine before others, which can be seen as a bonus for their work. However, this is only possible if the vaccine program allows it. In many states, volunteers receive vaccination if doses are left over at the end of the day. In others, dozens of hours of volunteer work are also required before one is eligible to receive the vaccine out of sequence.

“Before, I had to choose, now I take both,” interprets rap artist “ibe” his changed life situation. “Rolex or Omega?”, a long-term investor still chooses only one – or perhaps settles for a Seiko or Citizen that has been on their wrist for decades, because it is still “quite good”. The USA’s Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is also considering taking both, albeit for slightly different reasons. “Experts have suggested using two masks, or double masking, where a tightly woven cloth mask is placed over a disposable mask,” says Dr. John Brooks. “This way, the disposable mask acts as a filter, and the cloth mask on top adds filtration and helps the underlying mask fit correctly over the mouth and nose – preventing leaks from the edges of the mask,” he continues. Brooks says that when used this way, filtration efficiency can increase by up to 90%, which is close to the efficiency of an N95-level mask. So… “Cloth or disposable, no need to choose, I’ll take both.”

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The EU took a hard line yesterday in the dispute with pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca. European Commission EVP Valdis Dombrovskis stated that the EU implemented new measures to monitor the export of vaccines from the EU to the rest of the world. From today, vaccines require an export license, which will allow better monitoring of vaccine exports. The dispute stems from AstraZeneca’s decision to reduce EU vaccine deliveries by 60% at the same time as the company’s UK factory supplies vaccines only to the UK, and the factory located in Belgium also prioritizes the UK as a destination for vaccine deliveries. The EU also threatened to activate the Brexit agreement’s “Northern Ireland Protocol’s safeguard clause,” which would prevent the free movement of goods between the EU and Northern Ireland. However, this was retracted, but the EU’s statement warned that if the free movement across the Northern Irish border is abused and vaccines are transported across the border to third countries, the EU will consider implementing all possible means.

France (+22,858) will ban all travel from outside the EU area starting Sunday. This was announced by the country’s Prime Minister Jean Castex. Exceptions to the rule will only be made for good reasons. In recent days, there has been discussion in France about a third lockdown. Castex stated that closing borders is the “last chance” to avoid it. The Prime Minister also said that large shopping centers, with the exception of grocery stores, will close their doors on Sunday. Efforts will be made to further increase the amount of remote work. The border closure does not apply to truck traffic between the UK and France. French President Emmanuel Macron stated yesterday that the AstraZeneca vaccine does not appear to be effective in people over 65. He also said that the results for 60-65 year olds “are not encouraging either.”

Italy (+13,574) is going against the current regarding virus restrictions, as the country surprisingly announced it would ease virus restrictions in many regions. The country’s Ministry of Health stated that restrictions will be eased starting Sunday. With the exception of five regions, all regions are now “yellow” in Italy’s color-coded system. Yellow means that, for example, bars and restaurants can be open during the day. Travel is also freer. On Sunday, Puglia, Sardinia, Sicily, Umbria, and the autonomous province of Bolzano will remain at the stricter orange level. “The contagiousness rate dropped to 0.84. This is an encouraging result of people’s responsible behavior and the Christmas restrictions. Numerous regions are now returning to the yellow alert level. This is good news, but full vigilance is still important,” said Minister of Health Roberto Speranza.

In Sweden, the pandemic front was significantly calmer yesterday than in previous days. The country reported 2,400 new infections and 71 deaths. According to preliminary figures, the patience of relaxed Swedes was pushed to its limits last year. Women’s reports of intimate partner violence increased by a staggering 50 percent in Sweden last year. “That’s a huge increase in a very short time. This needs to be looked at more closely and considered what’s causing it,” says Sven-Åke Lindgren, a professor at the University of Gothenburg. “However, it is tempting to think that it has something to do with the pandemic,” Sven-Åke states. In Finland, the proportion of domestic abusers has not been reported to have increased further, nor has the country’s pandemic situation ever been similar to Sweden’s. However, Finland’s lenient policy on air travel and testing of air travelers may backfire, as both the British variant of the virus and the South African variant, which evades vaccines, have already been detected in almost all major cities. Yesterday, 363 infections were reported in Finland in at least 59 municipalities. Most infections were reported in Helsinki (+93), Espoo (+44), and Vantaa (+35).Johns Hopkins, Worldometers , Reuters1 , COVID tracker, TheBaselab , WHO1 , WHO2 , NYC tracker , COVID daily USA , THL map, FHM map (Sweden), Bloomberg , rt.live (USA state tracking) , EndCoronavirus , CoronaVirusIndex(yonzzu), Koronabotti (Twitter), Vaccination status worldwide, Vaccination status (THL)

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