The Kazakhstan projects were missing from this. In my defense, I must say that commercial production might move into the 2030s.
I absolutely agree that the price rise should continue until 2028. It’s impossible to predict the price for then, but we’ll be significantly higher by that time. The winners, of course, are still those who can sell at spot prices from these levels. Somewhere in between are offtake agreements with price caps and floors.
If the price is around 10,000 USD / mtu and 2027 production is 400,000 mtu, then a lot of money will be made. At least double relative to the market cap. Will this materialize in 2027? It might or might not, but the potential is there.
Not investment advice, and remember that mining companies are mining companies.
Tungsten is used in semiconductor wafer processes and is a critical material. A year ago, equipment manufacturers warned about tungsten pricing and urged fabs to pre-order materials for inventory. Nothing has changed since then, and prices are starting to spiral out of control. During COVID, we saw a severe hit when supply chains broke down; it feels like another crisis could be at hand that could severely impact the semiconductor industry.
The mining industry is cyclical, and now that tungsten prices are skyrocketing, it is certainly sensible to remind fellow investors about how cyclical stocks are valued!
Stocks are forward-looking. Even if the price of tungsten is currently high or rising, how far into the future can we expect this to continue? That is probably the most important question.
It also affects what kind of forward P/E ratios are reasonable when buying EQ Resources, and what kind of P/E ratios should be used for assumptions regarding future share price development.
Example:
APT 5000, EQR is raking it in. What P/E?
Do you make a price assumption of P/E 10 or, for example, P/E 5? In cyclicals, especially mining companies, valuation multiples tend to contract during a boom cycle. But what if the boom just keeps going and going? Do valuation multiples dip even further or do they start to rise? The further into the future we go, the more dangerous it is to buy at high multiples because new production enters the market and military stockpile replenishments progress. This, of course, assumes many things from warfare to production and end-use applications.
The answer probably lies somewhere in the 5-8 range, but in my opinion, it is naive to make price assumptions based on a P/E over 10.
APT $5,000. What is the share value with a P/E ratio of 5?
Let’s look a bit into the future and assume that EQR delivers.
Higher grade than Iothane (done)
APT remains at the $5,000 level
Doubling of Carbine by 2026
Production from Wolfram Camp
Acquisition of a ferrotungsten refinery
Production targets:
Mt. Carbine ~350,000-400,000 MTU
Saloro 160,000-200,000 MTU
Wolfram Camp 100,000 MTU
700,000 MTU production x (5,000 /MTU x 1.2 (ferrotungsten premium) - 400 /MTU AISC) x 0.7 (taxes etc.) ~$2.74B profit.
P/E ratio 5 → 12.35B market cap = over 10x upside to the current price.
Of course, perhaps a better way to value the company than the P/E ratio is to estimate the 3-year free cash flow - here is a great calculator made by @el_miikka: https://eqr-cashpile.lovable.app/
EQR has been sliding for a while and, as is typical, the thread is going quiet! A micro-level buy signal then…
The “largest tungsten producer” Almonty slid badly yesterday when it published its Q4/2025 report, stripped of sales pitches. Did it reveal that the emperor had no clothes after all?
A couple of effects:
The Almonty/EQR gap is narrowing, but mainly due to Almonty’s valuation dropping.
EQR’s valuation grows relatively because it will capture a larger share of Western 2026 production, as Almonty’s production won’t hit the market as expected.
Production expectations are tightening
Investors are shifting their tungsten weight from Almonty to EQR
All in all, the investment cases remain intact and EQR investors have no reason to panic.
I just put a small lottery ticket on Spartan Metals. According to AI, it has potential, but I’d like to hear the opinions of wiser and more experienced investors here on the company.
Current Valuation Snapshot
EQ Resources: Share price 0.265 AUD; Market cap ~1.293B AUD (~US$850M at current FX); Enterprise value ~1.48B AUD. P/S (ttm) 10.16x on ~A$75M revenue. Shares ~4.88B.
Spartan Metals: Share price 0.67 CAD; Market cap ~24.9M CAD (~US$18M); Enterprise value ~29M CAD. No revenue yet (pre-production developer). Shares ~41.6M (tight float, ~43% insider/strategic ownership).
Spartan trades at ~1/50th the market cap of EQ despite controlling a comparable scale of tungsten endowment in a strategically superior jurisdiction.”
Could a large portion of EQR’s selling pressure be explained by options selling? 145M stock options exercised on March 18th, possibly sold but that’s speculation. Options are really cheap so selling them would be logical…
EQ Resources is outright cheap, assuming one believes the production figures of 300,000 MTU. At these prices, the profit would be around 500 million dollars. The market capitalization is slightly over 1 billion USD. It’s worth noting that production volumes will increase towards the end of the year. If tungsten prices continue to rise, the current price is not the average annual price. The average price will then be higher. The next couple of quarters will be crucial for the narrative.
Lewis Black has apparently sold a big chunk of his ownership in Almonty. Interesting if true. A slightly bigger sauna renovation. Of course, there’s still stuff left there.
That’s a very comprehensive list of different tungsten projects. These are starting to emerge now that prices have risen. However, many have a long way to go before they are in production, if they even get that far.
EQ Resources has been attracting an exceptional amount of attention and buzz on X in recent days. Several large accounts have highlighted the company and the strategic importance of tungsten, and it increasingly feels like awareness of Western production is spreading among the wider public
I would kindly ask, what is the easiest way to get in touch with that company? Degiro and Mandatum Trader were mentioned, but do they have any practical difference from a small investor’s perspective?
A word of caution about this. As has been discussed on X for a while, the current Q might still be a bit weak. The rainfall that has challenged both mines has affected production.
The APT price has risen so sharply that the average price for the quarter’s production sales is not as high as one might think. In the first half, sales were significantly cheaper. I believe the July and October results will, in turn, be absolutely amazing.
