Verve (Media and Games Invest) - Growing Cash Cow from Sweden

Apologies for the double post, but I’m posting this as a separate message now, as its content differs so much from the previous one.

Remco was interviewed before the CMD.

Key points, as translated by myself:

  • Verve sticks to its set medium-term (3-5 years) targets (Revenue growth: 25–30% per year, EBITDA margin: 30–35%, EBIT margin: 20–25%, net debt ratio: 1.5–2.5×);
  • There has been weakness in the market situation, but the challenges in the second quarter were due to internal factors (platform integration), not external ones;
  • These challenges will still be reflected in Q3 figures, but Q4 will be very strong.
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Was anyone listening? Were they promising the moon, or are we going bankrupt?

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Naturally, no groundbreaking new information was shared at the CMD (or a stock exchange release should have been issued about it). I quickly went through the recording, and my own view (still strongly bullish) remained the same, if not strengthened.

Mainly, it explained the company’s business, technology, and the use of AI in the future of the industry in a way that was somewhat understandable to the average person.

Numbers, guidance, etc., were naturally discussed, but no major new information was provided; rather, existing public information was perhaps clarified or described more broadly.

The merging of platforms was discussed and it was indeed a big deal, as they mentioned, if I recall correctly, that about 80% of revenue came through those two previous platforms, which are now unified, increasing efficiency as only one platform will need to be updated in the future. The merging of the other half of the platforms is still ahead, but their impact on business is quite minor. Apparently, it hasn’t had a major impact on existing customers, and onboarding new customers has only been delayed, not significantly canceled altogether.

They mentioned that they are very pleased that the merger was completed well in advance of Q4, as Q4 is the most important quarter in the advertising industry, and continued disruptions until then would have been very bad. Q4 was again predicted to be strong; Q3 will be a transitional quarter, with negative effects from the merger still present in the early part, but numbers should start to improve significantly during September. They mentioned that there has also been a slight softness in the market situation (natural given the circumstances), but the main part of the weakness was precisely due to this merger project.

Regarding potential acquisitions, they probably mentioned that at least companies containing new platforms are unlikely to be acquired without careful consideration (to avoid time-consuming mergers again), as they feel they don’t necessarily need acquisitions for growth at the moment, believing organic growth will remain strong. The traditional “if something suitable is found at a suitable price, then we’ll look into it” (and at the moment I would bet that, for a change, it might not be found, unlike 1-2 years ago). I’m also fine with surplus money being used to reduce debt levels instead of acquisitions at the moment.

More detailed comments from the analyst probably tomorrow.

Edit.

  • Regarding competitive advantages, they mentioned that they are a market leader (this has already become clear from the statistics seen on the forum) and that new players entering the industry is very slow, as developing platforms to be functional, stable, and beneficial to customers’ businesses takes years.
  • They also mentioned that if advertising industry as a whole is forced by legislation into an ID-less system, that is a possible “carrot” in the future. And furthermore, Google etc. will not necessarily intrude on Verve’s ID-less technology without being forced by legislation to change advertising to “anonymous”. Or so I understood, my technical expertise is limited to that :smiley:
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Peter Huijboom (Board member) has in turn bought shares for approximately 800kSEK.

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Here’s a bit about the valuation of its peers. I’m sure one of these giants will place a bid soon. :smiley:

||Best P/E|EV / Best EBIT|EV / Best Sales|Sales|EBIT|\n|—|—|—|—|—|—|\n|VERVE GROUP SE|11,0x|4,3x|0,9x|437|90|\n|APPLOVIN CO-CL A|50,2x|42,3x|28,0x|4 709|1 873|\n|TRADE DESK INC-A|30,6x|49,0x|8,5x|2 445|427|\n|MAGNITE INC|28,0x|49,0x|5,6x|668|51|\n|PUBMATIC INC-A|-neg|-neg|1,1x|291|4|\n|DOUBLEVERIFY HOL|46,7x|14,8x|3,4x|657|82|\n|CRITEO SA-ADR|5,3x|5,9x|1,0x|1 933|151|

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It’s hard to imagine that Remco would sell without at least double or triple the current price, as there seems to be enough belief in strong continued growth :grin:. So Verve cannot be bought out without Remco’s consent (if those certain redemption limits apply in Sweden), even if a competitor somehow bought all other shares from the market.

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Amazon has made a deal with Netflix, and Amazon DSP is taking a larger market share in CTV. Trade Desk’s stock has fallen over 10% today due to this news. I can’t estimate what impact this will have on Verve, which has 4% of its volume in CTV - interested to see how the stock reacts tomorrow.

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Well, probably not more than a 4% impact on the numbers :smiley:. Would an (Inderes) analyst even comment on news of that level?

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Yeah, apparently no effect, yesterday it might have taken a bit of a hit intraday but that’s it. For me, generally, the ad market is quite a black box even though we are involved as owners in Verve :sweat_smile:

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Summary:
Mention/reminder of the lock-up expiry in Verve Group on Monday, September 15th. The lock-up was related to a directed share issue made in June.

• Major owner Bodhivas (owned by CEO Remco Westermann) will then gain selling rights.
• Six other owners have also been subject to the lock-up.

Additionally, Verve Group’s share price has fallen by approximately 30% since the issue and is trading significantly below the subscription price of 28 kronor/share – partly due to a lowered earnings forecast for 2025.

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Such a release late in the evening, Verve acquires Acardo Group AG from Germany.

Acardo is expected to contribute revenues of about EUR 15 million on a full-year 2025e normalized proforma basis with an expected EBITDA of about EUR 6 million. The total purchase price of EUR 24.5 million reflects an EBITDA multiple of about 6 x EBITDA before synergies, respectively about 4 x EBITDA after synergies. Given the technological setup of Acardo, the seamless integration of the company’s technology under the existing management structure will not lead to the requirement of a technological integration.

Doesn’t this seem like a rather cheap acquisition, especially since the feared integration problems shouldn’t arise? I wonder if this also leaked to someone in advance, as the share price has been on the rise again for a couple of days..

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I don’t believe for a second that there won’t be technological or cultural problems. Are they significant? Hopefully not. :sweat_smile:

On paper, the price doesn’t seem bad. Verve itself trades according to Yahoo Finance at ev/ebitda 5.05. How the acquisition supports the strategy remains to be seen.

“Acardo enables Verve to run shoppable campaigns across mobile, CTV, and DOOH, turning impressions into direct consumer response and measurable outcomes for Verve’s Demand Side clients”

“acardo is one of the leading providers of consumer activation in Germany. For more than 20 years, acardo has been developing innovative MarTech solutions and sales promotion concepts for the grocery, drugstore, non-food, hospitality, bakery, entertainment, and healthcare sectors. The team of over 100 people, based in Dortmund, implements several thousand promotions per year. acardo offers its clients a full service, from conception and technical implementation to clearing. In coupon clearing, acardo manages a dense network of more than 30,000 stores, including grocery stores, drugstores, cinemas, and pharmacies. Its clients include the largest companies in their respective industries.”

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Well, they did find a use for those anti-funds, even though it was heavily questioned in the spring :slightly_smiling_face:. In my opinion, Verve has a fairly good track record regarding acquisitions, so I see this as fundamentally positive, as I believe they know better than basic investors what kind of companies fit the overall picture.

It’s not a mega-massive acquisition in terms of size, so integration problems are unlikely to be significant.

Someone might even jokingly say that Remco is quite a cunning old fox. In the spring, it might have already been preliminarily known that platform integration problems could hinder summer quarter results, and they might have already familiarized themselves with this acquisition target, because they probably didn’t buy it in a hurry since it’s been a while since the offering → They proactively make the offering so they don’t have to print shares at lower prices, at least not much. Although I still believe that a partial reason for the offering was the institutions’ desire to buy shares, which enabled the move to the main list.

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Verve Group acquires Captify, strengthening its Demand Side business and securing one of the largest onsite search datasets outside Walled Gardens ​

Verve Group acquires Captify, strengthening its Demand Side business and securing one of the largest onsite search datasets outside Walled Gardens

The total purchase price of EUR 25.6 million reflects an EBITDA multiple of about 7x before synergies, respectively about 5x after synergies. The transaction is structured with a EUR 16.2 million cash consideration within 6 weeks of closing, and an additional deferred cash consideration of EUR 9.4 million 18 months after closing. Captify will be consolidated into Verve Group financials from 16 September 2025.

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Well, the acquisition department seems to be on fire :smiley: . The purchase price is of a similar magnitude to yesterday’s, but the revenue is higher and profitability is lower than Acardo’s.

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Here you can find summaries of the financial impacts of both acquisitions and how they strengthen Verve and support the strategy:

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Here are Jenneli’s comments on Verve’s latest news. :slight_smile:

Verve announced on Wednesday that it is acquiring advertising technology company Captify Technologies Ltd for a purchase price of EUR 25.6 million. Captify is one of the world’s largest independent search intelligence platforms, analyzing up to a billion daily searches and connecting approximately 400 billion active data points per day. The acquisition aligns well with Verve’s strategy to strengthen its demand-side platform (DSP) business, expand its sales force, and enhance its data capabilities. Although the short-term financial impact of the acquisition on the Verve Group’s 2025 results is limited due to the timing of consolidation, the transaction is strategically important, especially given the industry’s ongoing transition to a cookie-less environment. With the longer-term annual impact of this transaction and the Acardo acquisition announced earlier this week, we will update our forecasts in the near future.

And here are her comments from yesterday on the acquisition of German Acardo Group AG. :slight_smile:

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Why does this company have such a weak return on equity and should one be concerned about it?

Due to numerous acquisitions, a staggering amount of goodwill has accumulated on the balance sheet. Therefore, the balance sheet is not as strong as it appears on the

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Two new collaborations announced within a couple of weeks:

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