Verkkis’s Q1 results will be published next Thursday, and the CEO interview will be recorded as usual the day after the results. If anyone would like to ask Panu questions, I’ll take them now!
Here is a pre-earnings company report on Verkkis from Arttu, as the company reports its results ![]()
Verkkokauppa.com will publish its Q1 results on Thursday at 8:00 am. We expect sales growth to have remained strong in Q1, but profitability to have stagnated. The company will likely reiterate its guidance, but in our view, the earnings growth outlook for the current year has weakened since our last update. For this reason, we lowered our forecasts for both the current year and the coming years. A strong balance sheet, neutral valuation, and slight earnings growth should be sufficient for a positive outlook, which is why we reiterate our Accumulate recommendation. However, the target price is lowered to EUR 3.6 (prev. EUR 4.5) due to the forecast changes.
CEO’s review of last week’s General Meeting! ![]()
Here are the initial impressions of the result.
And here is a company update from Arttu following the Q1 release. ![]()
The Finnish consumer electronics market weakened in Q1, which was reflected in the company’s earnings performance. We believe 2026 will be challenging for the company’s domestic operations as consumer confidence remains low due to global uncertainties. Declining earnings, increased forecast risks, weakened economic fundamentals, and an expected return falling to the level of the required rate of return lead us to change our stance. We are lowering our recommendation for Verkkokauppa.com to Reduce (prev. Accumulate) and adjusting our target price to EUR 2.8 (prev. EUR 3.6) in line with our forecast changes.
Panu Porkka was Arttu’s guest regarding Q1 ![]()
Topics:
00:00 Start of the year
01:56 The Finnish market
04:45 International growth
06:30 Profitability declined
10:04 Impact of the Middle East on supply chains
11:30 Chip shortage
13:38 Fast deliveries
16:10 Guidance
Arttu has published a new company report on Verkkis. ![]()
At the current share price, a significant profit warning is already priced into Verkkokauppa.com. We likewise expect this year’s operating profit to fall short of guidance due to a challenging market and cost inflation. However, the sharp decline in the share price has pushed the valuation to what we consider an attractive level, which, combined with a good dividend yield, offers a sufficient risk-reward ratio for investors.
A signal that the price is too low? I can admit myself that I have been accumulating the stock again for some time now.
The maximum amount to be used for the repurchase of own shares is EUR 5 million. The company may repurchase a maximum of 2.5 million shares, which corresponds to approximately 5.5% of the total number of shares.
I just hope Seppälä doesn’t see this as his opportunity.
I wrote a quick comment on the subject while filling in for Arttu: Verkkokauppa.com aloittaa tuntuvan omien osakkeiden osto-ohjelman - Inderes
Arttu has written some pre-event commentary regarding the upcoming Capital Markets Day, which will be held on May 28th. ![]()
We expect the core of the strategy to remain unchanged, and the day will be spent reviewing the implementation of the first half of the strategy period while outlining the steps for the latter half. The event can be followed via live stream and later as a recording here.
Verkkis is holding a Capital Markets Day (CMD) today at 1:00 PM, where they will discuss the strategy and the updated fixed cost ratio target. Otherwise, the financial targets (growth >5%, EBIT % >5%, and dividend 60-80%) remained unchanged.
In practice, the removal of that “under 10%” fixed cost ratio target means, in my interpretation, that the company believes the gross margin % (2025: 17.1%) will be a larger profitability driver in 2026-28. Otherwise, that cost ratio would have been kept as is. This does not, however, change the fact that reaching the 5% profitability target also requires an improvement in fixed cost efficiency towards 10% of revenue (2025: 13.3% of revenue).
Here are some of my own thoughts from yesterday’s CMD. The day was largely spent reviewing old ground, which may signal that the strategy has worked and will continue to work in the future.
Verkkis issued a flagging notification regarding a new owner exceeding the 5% threshold:
So, TIND Asset Management now owns slightly over 5% of Verkkis shares.
A quick glance at the fund’s principles looks interesting:
TIND Asset Management is a partner-owned single strategy manager based in Oslo. We manage the TIND Discovery Fund, a high conviction, long-biased portfolio of small- and mid-cap investments in the Nordics based on bottom-up fundamental research generating an information edge. The Fund was launched in November 2023 and is an open-end Qualifying Investor Alternative Investment Fund domiciled in Ireland. The investment approach is absolute return focused, emphasizing valuation discipline, both in terms of maximizing returns and mitigating risks.
In other words, this fund is focused on the long term, especially in small and mid-cap companies. They base their investment decisions on their own research.
Well, perhaps one shouldn’t put too much weight on this yet, as it is a relatively fresh fund from 2023. On the other hand, the team seems to have some expertise:
Christer Bjørndal as CEO, former founder and responsible portfolio manager at another Norwegian hedge fund player, this venture brought together a team of former colleagues from Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM), Norway’s Oil Fund
Source: Discover the TIND Discovery Fund - HedgeNordic
It isn’t exactly massive in size: AUM $319.0 M (2025-07-15) ( TIND Asset Management as | AUM 13F)
In any case, it is likely very welcome that the company has gained a new significant owner who looks at things with a longer time horizon. And one has to hope they see much more in the company than what the very recent performance suggests (purchases were presumably made in May - so they seem to have hit a good spot).
Positive signal?
Arttu interviewed Verkkis CEO Panu Porkka, and there was plenty to discuss regarding the themes of the Capital Markets Day ![]()
Topics:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:13) The core of the strategy
(01:20) Observations during the strategy period
(03:52) Growth in fast deliveries
(05:56) Profitability development of private labels
(08:08) Growing international business
(12:08) Achieving financial targets
(15:56) Improving gross margin %
(18:23) Repurchase of own shares
Artun brief comment on how the Supreme Administrative Court (KHO) rejected the company’s appeal regarding the administrative fine.
Arttu has put together the Q2 preview report, as Verkkis (Verkkokauppa.com) will be reporting its results tomorrow. ![]()
We expect earnings to have continued their decline as an uncertain operating environment weighs on consumer sentiment and demand. The outlook for the remainder of the year is better than before due to strengthened consumer confidence, which is why we have raised our forecasts. Despite this, we expect a clear profit warning, which the market has already priced into the stock. Supported by earnings growth emerging next year, we see the stock’s return expectation as sufficient. We reiterate our “accumulate” (lisää) recommendation and raise the target price to 3.5 euros (2.9e), driven by our forecast revisions.
Tomorrow, the very first Verkkis live stream in history will hit the airwaves starting at 7:55 AM! Come join us to see @Arttu_Heikura break down the report live! ![]()
Arttu interviewed Verkkis CEO Panu Porkka following the Q2 results ![]()
Topics:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:10) “A good performance”
(03:49) Technology shifts and categories
(06:12) Development of the market environment
(07:26) Demand outlook
(09:30) Achieving the guidance
Here is the company report on Verkkis after Q2 from Arttu ![]()
Verkkokauppa.com managed to turn its temporarily declining earnings back to a growth trajectory, supported by revenue growth and successful cost control. We anticipate the company’s earnings to grow moderately in 2026, with the upward trend continuing in the coming years, largely driven by volume. Considering this earnings growth, we believe the stock’s valuation is moderate, offering investors an attractive risk-reward ratio.
Quoted from the report:
Risks focus on market development and competitive position
In our view, a key negative risk for our forecasts and the investment case is the market environment remaining weak, as we expect the company to receive support from a recovering domestic market starting in 2027. Stagnation of international growth is also a material risk, as our forecasts rely on successful internationalization. Furthermore, a weakening of the company’s competitive position in the domestic market would be a significant risk, which, in our view, would lower the profitability potential (~3%) we have estimated for the company.
The Finnish consumer electronics market fell by 4% in Q2. Due to the TV HD transition that began during the comparison period, the TV category dropped by as much as 30% this time. Otherwise, development has been stable or rising, meaning the underlying demand for electronics has remained strong.
Verkkis’s (Verkkokauppa.com) consumer sales in Finland also fell by 4%, so according to this statistic, market share was at least not lost. It is likely that the 12% decline in Verkkis’s other categories dragged that consumer sales figure downward, meaning the comparable performance relative to the market was actually better.