Betting as an investment

I am somewhat fed up with the whole industry and nowadays I only play for fun, but seriously, Moniveto.

I used to be a semi-pro gambler, spending 24/7 on it. You can gauge the volume of my play from the fact that in a year, I wagered a sum equivalent to 150 times my bankroll. In practice, almost my entire bankroll was tied up in bets every day. How? By playing my own picks and using tips from a massive betting ring as well as paid services—which, by the way, I also ran myself back then. If there was any cash left over at the end of the day, I often used it for arbitrages.

It all started to end for many different reasons. I get somewhat sad just thinking about that whole time. I had come a long way, and the gambling was undeniably profitable over sequences of tens of thousands of bets. It was also profitable in the records of my friends at the time, across samples of hundreds of thousands of bets.

However, the gambling didn’t produce enough for a living, despite the fact that I spent all the time a human has on turning over the bankroll. My bankroll was simply too small. Then came a time when challenges in my life outside of betting forced me to eat into the bankroll. That was the final nail; I could no longer produce even what I was taking out of the bankroll. The situation started to become overwhelming, and I was mentally exhausted.

At that time, I suddenly had something like 50–100 accounts around the world. At first, it was easy to win big using small bookmakers. I got banned or limited by all of them. With the remaining larger companies, the odds decreased somewhat, or rather, they lacked the outlier odds (härökertoimet) that smaller bookies repeatedly churned out.

I also focused on playing opening lines. This meant being on standby at the computer for hours, and then when the odds were released, bang bang bang—getting the bets in as fast as possible. No matter how fast you were, there were always others at those spots, every single time. You noticed this with bookmakers like Pinnacle, where the odds dropped immediately as bets came in. I also lurked for Veikkaus’s opening lines during the dark hours of the night. You could often find arbitrages there. On the other hand, Veikkaus showed such good expertise in some sports that I found it profitable to utilize their estimates and play them on the international market.

I still like following and betting on Liiga, but I refuse to keep a log of my bets. I used to type thousands of rows into Excel and I’ve had enough of that. Gut feeling tells me enough; I do this for fun. And on my phone—I haven’t opened a computer much.

Looking at it, the betting world has certainly become much more difficult. Bookmakers copy each other’s odds. To me, even the odds comparison tools look much worse than before, or the pro versions cost astronomical sums. You used to be able to get decent tools for free. Bookmakers handed out bonuses generously, and they were easy money. Those also seem quite terrible nowadays, looking at them superficially, and full of hidden terms in the fine print.

I started playing seriously right at the dawn of online gambling, and I played with goals even before the internet.

Fortunately, I can now play for fun and without any targets.

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After a good January, a not-so-good February. Quite a rollercoaster. Ended up taking a 12-unit hit, so moving forward relatively unscathed. :+1:

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I found an interesting thread here. For me as well, betting has been part of my “investment portfolio” for many years now. In fact, while moving, I found some old calculations in a squared notebook from the 2013-2014 KHL season and the 2012 Superpesis season :sweat_smile:. Very primitive, but there seemed to be some logic behind them. Well, for obvious reasons, the KHL is dead and buried. Superpesis has also dropped out of my betting repertoire, even though interest in it is starting to return. It just seems there’s no time to do my own modeling for it. My betting tracking nowadays focuses on football and to some extent ice hockey. The main leagues in the summer are the Swedish Allsvenskan and the Finnish Veikkausliiga. This season, the plan is to get a better handle on Ykkönen as well. During the winters, I follow the Premier League and the German Bundesliga.

The 2022 season was a huge success regarding Allsvenskan and better than expected in Veikkausliiga too. In fact, betting was my best-performing investment of 2022. As a result, I was extremely motivated for the 2023 season. The first month went well, but then total exhaustion/burnout with betting set in. I started having too many irons in the fire while building a house and planning a wedding. My child was just over a year old and another was on the way, so I had to cut back somewhere :sweat_smile: I did try to input data late at night, but nothing came of it. Additionally, I was subscribed to a paid tip service, and tips were frequently beeping on my phone. Then I had to get the bets in quickly so the odds wouldn’t drop too much. At that point, steam was practically coming out of my ears, and I put the whole thing on hiatus. Betting, just like investing, is the kind of activity where it’s not worth throwing large sums around if you don’t have the time to do research and calculations.

Well, now daily life on the private side has normalized and is rolling along nicely, so there’s been time to dive back into betting. The Allsvenskan and Veikkausliiga rankings are almost ready. Now I’m just adjusting them based on player transfers and friendly matches. And of course, I’m still waiting for season previews from others to compare. There’s still work to do on Ykkönen, but I’m sure it’ll get finished. There’s just under a month left before the seasons start.

I could also try to post some bet tracking here, similar to @SuomenBuffet, and write down some thoughts. This isn’t a betting forum, of course, but hopefully, this underrated form of investment will spark discussion in the future as well.

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The first month of betting has now been wrapped up. Or rather, the month started on March 10th in this case.
Screenshot_20240331_222338_Sheets
107 bets, 108.2% return. So, a pretty nice start. 90 of the picks were tails. 17 were my own, of which 10 were live bets and 7 were pre-match. Live bets went well, but in the football leagues I priced myself, I’ve already managed to dig a -15.5 unit hole. Plenty of work to do, then :sweat_smile:. But now in April, those leagues are really getting started for real.

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March:
The first three weeks were an absolute crazy run, and the last week was a steady beating.

  • 861 rows in Excel, some of which are indeed the same ideas in different forms, or the same bet on different sites.
  • ROI 107.3%
  • Stakes 862u
  • Result 83u

It was quite a ride. And indeed, approx. 75% of the bets were tails and 25% were my own.

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The first half of this year is starting to be behind us.
I made 15k in profit through matched betting, mainly with the early payout campaign.
https://keskustelut.inderes.fi/t/varallisuuden-kasvattaminen-opiskeluaikana/3099/156?u=nagilny

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Identity and address verification is standard procedure. With some, you have to struggle with them, but Betfair is definitely among the best in that regard too.

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By the way, how have you transferred money to that exchange broker? If I remember correctly, winnings are only transferred back to the same source from which the money was transferred to the exchange account.

I deposit and withdraw from Betfair using Trustly (online banking) or Skrill (e-wallet).

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This episode might be of interest in this thread, as the guest was Sijoituskästi’s analyst Jani Järvinen., who has also apparently been successful in betting. :slight_smile:

They talk about betting and related topics in several different parts, not just in the beginning.

Sijoituskästi’s and STNX’s very own analyst Jani Järvinen makes his podcast debut in the last episode of the year.

Who is this mysterious person behind STNX analyses and Sijoituskästi’s X-updates? How did Jani earn hundreds of thousands during his student years through betting?

In addition to these, the episode delves into three of the most interesting investment cases currently: Betsson, Lindex, and Volkswagen.

Topics:

0:00 Intro 2:38 Betting and mobile software company 6:21 Portfolio management and consulting 9:00 Jani as the mastermind behind Sijoituskästi 14:13 How do betting arbitrages work? 27:45 About Jani’s consumption habits 31:47 Betsson stock analysis 57:57 Lindex stock analysis 1:18:24 Volkswagen stock analysis 1:44:20 Opinion on cryptocurrencies

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French Open underway, top 16 remaining. Odds according to the market:

  1. Alcaraz 77 %
  2. Sinner 58 %
  3. Djoko 22 %
  4. Zverev 14 %

Stanley Cup before the 1st final match Edmonton-Florida roughly 50/50.

Spanish GP (World Champion in parentheses)

  1. Piastri 60 % (42 %)
  2. Norris 33 % (40 %)
  3. Verstappen 9 % (20 %)

PS. I don’t really bet because the expected values elsewhere, i.e., in the financial markets, are much better, but it’s interesting to follow the odds. Today we’ll try to watch at least Alcaraz-Shelton and F1.

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The trick to making money from betting isn’t in expected values but in a huge number of repetitions. Back when I was still involved in circles living off the sport and modestly reached semi-professional status with my relatively small bankroll, people were placing up to ten thousand bets a year. That requires an enormous amount of analysis, which no one can do alone. There were indeed a lot of sources, while one was personally working on one series they were familiar with. The bankroll was in circulation every weekend.

One memorable thing from those times is when I saw proof of someone running a 10,000-bet series at a loss, while at the same time, in the graph, well over 100,000 bets were profitable. I saw proof of one case, but I’ve heard of similar ones too.

Against this background, these series of 10-100 investments in the investment world and drawing conclusions from them feel strange. I’ve never really grasped what constitutes a convincing long series in investment decisions (buy/sell). I’ve thought that a holder makes a decision every day and with every piece of news, even if they do nothing, because that too is a decision. The series comes from that. An investor is a kind of live player. At the same time, an investor is naturally helped by the stock market’s on-average profitable expected return, while a bettor has to fight tooth and nail against a negative expected value.

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“The trick to making money with betting is not in expected values, but in a huge number of repetitions.”

This seems to be the case, although it might also be possible to succeed with a very small amount. In any case, from my perspective, it’s a relatively very difficult field.

“It requires an enormous amount of analysis that no one can do alone.”

With current technology, I don’t believe it’s about the number of people involved. Also, recently there was an article in Hesari about this guy Salibandy: Markus Markkola elättää itsensä vedonlyönnillä – lakimuutos uhkaa viedä häneltä ammatin | HS.fi and one can also find Marko Virtanen etc.

“At the same time, an investor is naturally helped by the stock market’s average profitable expected return, while a bettor has to fight tooth and nail against a negative expected value.”

This is true, and with good basic execution, stock investing can be successful for a reasonably smart person.

PS. F1 was typically boring; the highlight was Verstappen’s tantrum/crashing at the end of the race. Alcaraz-Shelton was quite okay; Shelton reminds me of Andy Roddick from earlier years, even though the whole game has changed a lot. Especially the rackets have changed tremendously.

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Today at 4 PM, the amazing Paris Grand Slam final Sinner-Alcaraz. Sinner slightly over 50%, meaning a slight favorite. The situation has changed, as earlier Alcaraz was a clear favorite (see above). I agree with the market trend. The starting point was, among other things, the Rome ATP final a couple of weeks ago, where Alcaraz won 2-1 in a best-of-3 match. Also looming in the background is Sinner’s doping case, which has also been diligently followed in Finland.

https://yle.fi/a/74-20109894

Stanley Cup series 1-1, probabilities roughly 50/50, Florida has a slight advantage.

Of course, also the Nations League final Portugal-Spain, approx. probabilities before full time: Spain 50%, Portugal 25%, draw 25%.

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Finland-Poland probabilities: win 27% draw 30% loss 46%. If, with a gun to my head, I were forced to find an interesting bet from those initial data, I would say the loss is overpriced.

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The final result of the match was a victory, which, according to the market, was a rather unlikely event. My stance before the match was that a Finnish loss was possibly even overpriced, meaning it would have been smart to bet on it.

The amateurish basis for my opinion was conclusions drawn from Finland’s previous qualifying matches: Finland’s team’s physique and tempo are not sufficient for tougher matches. Furthermore, most Polish players play in Europe’s toughest leagues, which would further exacerbate the physical deficit. Lewandowski’s absence did not change these conclusions, because the absence of the best player does not necessarily always lead to the team getting worse (cf. PSG’s sale of Mbappé to Real).

What happened on the field? Finland clearly dominated the match and won. Based on the final result, one can naturally speculate about the odds/probabilities. Perhaps they were close to being right, but this time it didn’t work out, meaning my virtual bet was still justified. It is, of course, possible that the market was wrong, e.g., perhaps Poland’s coaching was incorrectly priced.

This weekend is the F1 Canadian GP. Probabilities: Piastri 42%, Norris 35%, Verstappen 17%.

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I thought that the absence of Poland’s two best players and the team’s Lewandowski crisis would turn the match in Finland’s favor, and I bet 1X, but because I placed the bet with Veikkaus, I was left empty-handed☹️

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The Nations League decisive matches had interesting effects on the World Cup winner odds. Individual games are far from future major tournaments, but odds are extrapolated from them because opportunities for performances in games between big nations dwindle. Before the semi-finals, Spain’s championship could be played with odds of seven on Betway. After a good semi-final, Spain’s odds dropped to 5.5 and remained there even after the disappointing final.

The talents of Yamal and Williams & Co (and that they are in a maturing, not aging, phase) are known, so if one considers Spain a big favorite in the long run, then such short-term noise can create or destroy opportunities.

A somewhat similar situation occurred with Brazil when Ancelotti took the helm, and they faced Ecuador, who had lost the fewest matches in the qualifiers, and Paraguay, who had taken big scalps during the past year. Headlines have bemoaned the disappointment, but after quite good performances (for initial games), the odds have not changed.

I haven’t followed the thread and apologize if this doesn’t fit its spirit. And the examples contain my subjective views on the teams, and the core point isn’t whether the odds in question are ultimately correct. But I find it fun to place winner bets as far out as possible, because the big picture is often the big picture, and for example, Brazil is always a favorite in football, and if Italy didn’t manage to mess themselves out of the qualifiers, they ‘surprise’ everyone by going far. :smiley:

These also often present good cashout opportunities, if one identifies an overvalued odd but doesn’t want to see if the good run continues to the finish line.

It got a bit rambling, apologies.

Disclaimer: I am a recreational user of betting. I tried more seriously once, and my motivation vanished when I was quickly shown the door from the casino’s bonus program. :smiley: And I took Spain’s championship before the semi-finals.

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U21 winner odds:

  • Spain, Germany, and England 20%
  • France 17%
  • Italy 12.5%
  • Portugal and Netherlands 9%
  • Finland < 1%

I’ve watched a few matches without paying close attention. If I were looking for value bets, Portugal and Netherlands, especially if there was a cash-out option or an exchange.

F1 Montreal winner after qualifying:

  • Verstappen (Redbull) 33%
  • Piastri (McLaren) 34%
  • Russell (Mercedes) 25%
  • Norris (McLaren) 8%

Norris had a poor qualifying. F1 seems to be trying to move from extremely boring to good entertainment. There is more competition and Verstappen takes care of the rest both on and off the track.

https://www.skysports.com/f1

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Towards Wimbledon we go through warm-up tournaments. The Halle ATP semifinal Medvedev - Zverev is currently underway, with Medvedev favored in the betting markets, win probability 57%.

Halle 2025-06-21 16-29-41

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