Vaisala - A Quality Company in Observation and Measurement Technology

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I couldn’t find a Vaisala thread on the forum, so I thought I’d open a thread for those interested in the company.

Vaisala has been under Inderes’ coverage since 2016, and over 4,000 investors follow Vaisala on inderes.fi (www.inderes.fi/fi/yhtiot/vaisala). The company is therefore generating interest among investors, even though the stock is currently quite challengingly priced. However, it is a stable and profitably growing technology company.

Right at the start, here is a link to the latest InderesTV episode concerning Vaisala:
https://www.inderes.fi/fi/videot/vaisalan-ylla-koronapilvia

To start the thread, here is some information about Vaisala, a provider of weather, environmental, and industrial measurement solutions.

History
1936 Vilho Väisälä (1889-1969) develops the RS11 radiosonde. (Video on the development of the sonde)
1936 He founds Toiminimi V. Väisälä and begins manufacturing radiosondes in the cellar of his home.
1936 The first order for 20 radiosondes is sent to MIT university.
1937 The RS11 radiosonde receives a gold medal at the Paris World Expo.
1944 Toiminimi V. Väisälä changes its name to Mittari Oy.
1954 Mittari Oy changes its name to Vaisala Oy and moves to a new factory property in Vantaa.
1968 Vaisala Oy receives the President of the Republic’s export award.
1975 Automatic weather stations are developed, and Vaisala’s aviation weather business begins.
1980 An in-house cleanroom enables the production of semiconductors, and the industrial measurements business begins.
1988 Vaisala Oy lists on the Helsinki Stock Exchange’s OTC list.
1994 Vaisala Oyj lists on the main list of the Helsinki Stock Exchange.
More on Vaisala’s history, e.g., youtube: The Story of Vaisala.

Net Sales and Operating Profit
Vaisala’s net sales have been growing over the last 5 years, and profitability has generally remained at a good level.
Vaisala 1 (liikevaihto ja liiketulos)
Vaisala’s Business Structure

  • Weather and Environment (65% share of net sales in 2019)
    => provides weather measurement technology products, projects, and services
    => customers include meteorological institutes, road and rail authorities, airports and defense forces, energy companies, and maritime sectors
  • Industrial Measurements (35% share of net sales in 2019)
    => helps improve the quality, efficiency, and productivity of products and production processes
    => customers include semiconductor manufacturers, power plants, the automotive industry, and the food industry
    => focuses on demanding humidity and carbon dioxide measurements (CO2 concentration, humidity, temperature, dew point, pressure, hydrogen peroxide concentration, moisture in oil, and dissolved gases in oil)

The Weather and Environment business area is the larger part of Vaisala in terms of net sales. However, the Industrial Measurements business has been growing faster and has better profitability.
=> in terms of results and growth, Industrial Measurements is Vaisala’s most important business area
Vaisala 3 - liikevaihto alueittain

Orders Received and Order Book
The order book is quite short, and the number of orders received varies significantly between quarters.
Vaisala 2
Research and Development
Research and development have played an important role at Vaisala. Vaisala has invested an average of approximately 13% of net sales into R&D between 2013 and 2019.
Vaisala 4 - T&K-kulut
Acquisitions

  • Vaisala has made many acquisitions throughout its history, most of which have been small in terms of net sales.
    2010 Veriteq Instruments Inc, Canada (environmental monitoring)
    2013 Second Wind Systems Inc., USA (remote sensing technology)
    2013 3TIER Inc., USA (energy generation assessment)
    2017 Vionice, Finland (computer vision)
    2018 Leosphere, France (wind lidars)
    2018 K-Patents, Finland (liquid measurements)
    2019 Foreca’s professional weather services business

Vaisala’s Strategy for the Period 2019-2023

  • The Industrial Measurements business area aims for:
    profitable growth in gas and liquid measurement technologies (humidity and carbon dioxide measurements, liquid measurements, environmental monitoring systems, condition monitoring equipment for electrical systems)
  • The Weather and Environment business area’s goals are:
    A) to offer the industry’s best products for weather observation; B) to be a reliable partner in large project deliveries; C) to leverage digital transformation and develop solutions that support decision-making for weather-critical operations; and D) to expand into environmental measurements with urban air quality as the spearhead.
  • Research and Development: Focus on renewing the instrument and radar offering and on smart data and software products, especially for the intelligent transportation systems market.

Long-term Financial Targets

  • aims for an average annual growth of over 5%.
  • aims for an operating profit margin (EBIT) of over 12%.

Peers

  • There are no truly direct peers, but comparisons can be drawn from high-expertise technology companies:
  • Spectris Plc (LSE:SXS) (measurement and precision instrumentation and controls)
  • Halma Plc (LSE: HLMA) (gas sensors and other sensors)
  • Oxford Instruments Plc (LSE: OXIG) (microscopes, sensors)
  • Indutrade AB (STO: INDT) (technical components)
  • TT Electronics Plc (LSE: TTG) (sensors, components)
  • Hexagon AB (STO: HEXA) (geospatial, industrial measurement equipment)
  • Hexpol (STO: HPOL) (rubber and plastic components)
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Vaisala hasn’t sparked discussion on the forum yet. Next week, Vaisala will release its Q2 results on Tuesday, July 21, 2020, at approximately 12:00 PM. For Q2, one might assume that investors’ interest will particularly focus on the situation of the Weather and Environment business.

About half of the Weather and Environment business consists of project and service activities, which can be particularly affected by the corona pandemic. At Vaisala’s Annual General Meeting, CEO Kjell Forsén also discussed the effects of the corona pandemic in his review. According to him, as a result of the corona pandemic:

  • in the weather business in developing countries, it is difficult to get large projects off the ground => Forsén stated at the AGM that large orders from developing countries are probably not to be expected this year
  • travel restrictions => complicate and cause delays and interruptions in projects and deliveries.
  • air traffic problems => investments related to airports have come to a halt

The challenges in project and service business will not directly collapse Vaisala’s result, as the margins of project and service operations are smaller. Industrial measurements account for a larger share of operating profit. There has sometimes been quite a large fluctuation between Vaisala’s quarters:

In addition to the market situation, changes are also occurring within Vaisala in the short term:

  • long-time CEO Kjell Forsén is retiring, and Kai Öistämö will start as the new CEO no later than October 1, 2020
  • two new acquisitions have been integrated, and a new unit, Vaisala Digital, has been established (includes Foreca’s B2B business, software solutions, and data sales)

I do not currently have Vaisala in my portfolio. From an investor’s perspective, the company has offered interesting share price fluctuations recently. The rise in Vaisala’s valuation multiples and the uncertain market situation have caused volatility in the share price development over the past six months:

  • November 2019 share price 26 € => February 2020 share price 36 €
  • March 2020 share price 22 € => May 2020 share price 35 €
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For years, I desperately waited to get Vaisala cheaply, and this was one of the first stocks I snagged during the COVID-19 dip. In my opinion, it’s in the same league as Kone – premium quality at a steep price. But at least I don’t have to stress about quarterly results, as the big steps are solid, megatrends are supportive, and the moat is deep and wide. So, I have strong faith in the company and don’t see any need to sell this stock in the coming decades. The expected return is, of course, quite modest.

It’s easy to agree with Forsen’s views on the impacts of the coronavirus. Ultimately, the cash position is such that I only see COVID-19 as a minor bump in the grand scheme of things. It’s worth noting, though, that in the spring, I had to rub my eyes when news headlines talked about the hypothetical bankruptcy of Heathrow Airport (it never even crossed my mind that such a thing would be theoretically possible).

It’s a shame to see Forsen leave. Let’s hope that Öistämö continues with the same vision and strategy as his predecessor.

Vaisala Digital completely passed me by. It’s great that business is moving more strongly in this direction. Perhaps this will open up new growth opportunities and revenue streams – data-based services are much faster and cheaper to develop and sell than new microsensor technology. It sounds quite promising at first glance when considering long-term trends:

Vaisala Digital focuses on transportation, renewable energy, lightning data, and data-driven business.

What stage is the construction of the new product development center at? And is it coming to the US, Finland, or both? Currently, information mainly seems to be about the US office. In 2018, there was talk of completion by the end of 2019; lately, I’ve mostly seen 3D concept videos on LinkedIn. An even stronger focus on product development is pleasing to an R&D guy like me and should enable continued growth, but on the other hand, someone smart once said that when a company starts burning money on new fancy offices, it’s time to sell the company’s shares.

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That comparison to Kone regarding valuation is quite apt, @Tiksu. Vaisala has historically been valued with relatively high valuation multiples. Vaisala has also had its problems sometimes. For example, in 2010-2011, there seemed to be issues with at least the ERP system, and several profit warnings were issued.

In the long run, megatrends will probably strongly support Vaisala, so for a long-term portfolio, Vaisala is a perfectly good choice. This little bump caused by the coronavirus does not change the situation in the long run. Perhaps we could get the share price lower and the expected return a bit better.

I don’t know much about Vaisala’s technology or products; mostly, I’ve tried to figure out the company’s future value drivers. Forsén’s overview gave a lot of information about Vaisala’s situation and sources of growth:

  • Vaisala Production System is finely tuned and enables short delivery times
  • According to him, acquisitions can be integrated into Vaisala’s global Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) system
  • One interesting piece of information was that Vaisala has gained a good position as a supplier of measurement devices for data centers.

I don’t recall the exact situation with the Louisville product development center right now. I remember the center was supposed to be completed already in 2019, but I haven’t looked for more information on this. I wonder if there was already some business there before; I don’t remember now. Often, those new fancy offices just consume money.

Vaisala Digital is an interesting part. The name of the Digital Solutions unit was changed to Vaisala Digital last year. In Digital, the focus is on traffic, renewable energy, and lightning data. Digital also seemed to develop some kind of machine learning and artificial intelligence expertise.

A team developing road, airport, and port solutions was now located in Finland, and 21 employees were laid off in the USA. Vaisala has made quite a few changes, so there have also been costs. I looked at the annual report for these effects:
Vaisala estimates these measures will result in annual savings of approximately 3 million euros starting from 2020. Vaisala recorded a reorganization-related expense of 1.1 million euros in the second half of 2019.

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A new office/product development building is under construction in Vantaa. It will be completed by the end of this year and commissioned next spring. The premises will include various laboratories.

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Vaisala’s results published.
https://www.inderes.fi/fi/tiedotteet/vaisala-oyj-puolivuosikatsaus-tammi-kesakuu-2020

Q2’20

  • Orders received 95.9 (98.0) million euros, down 2%
  • Order book at period end 145.3 (151.7) million euros, down 4%
  • Net sales 91.4 (96.1) million euros, down 5%
  • Operating result (EBIT) 7.9 (7.2) million euros, 8.7 (7.5) % of net sales
  • Earnings per share 0.16 (0.14) euros
  • Cash flow from operations -1.1 (-6.2) million euros

Orders received decreased by only 2%

  • order intake weakened particularly in the Industrial Measurements business area and especially in the APAC region
  • Orders received for the Weather and Environment business area were at the previous year’s level due to strong order accumulation in Europe.

Net sales decreased by 5%

  • Net sales growth for the Industrial Measurements business area was good in the APAC region, particularly in China, as the COVID-19 pandemic eased. However, the growth in net sales in the APAC region was offset by a decrease in net sales in the Americas and EMEA regions.
  • Net sales for the Weather and Environment business area decreased mainly in the APAC region.

Project deliveries for the Weather and Environment business also progressed well:

  • Ongoing major projects accounted for two-thirds of the business area’s project business net sales in the first half of the year.

A reasonably good Q2, as the operating result improved despite the decrease in net sales and orders received. Let’s await the analyst’s comment.

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At first glance, I think Q2 was pretty good. The outlook for the rest of the year is about the same; revenue was slightly below Inderes’ forecast, but otherwise, it pretty much hit the target. What was interesting was that under the pandemic, the service business continued to develop, even though I myself feared it would specifically slump.

Regarding the pandemic, the following is quite worrying, in my opinion, when considering the pace at which the coronavirus’s global tour continues its journey from country to country and continent to continent (this also applies to other globally operating companies):

Customers in the Weather and Environment business area in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America have suffered from lockdowns, significant economic problems, and national budget deficits. As a result, several large project tenders have been canceled or suspended.

One thing I really like is the statement that even though business slows down under the pandemic, product development continues to push forward. New market entries will certainly be seen in the coming years, while hopefully, the service and digital sides will grow.

The number of employees also seems to be growing steadily:
12/2018: 1821
12/2019: 1894
6/2020: 1954

I really like what this company is doing. I might even add a little, even though the price is steep and the expected return is quite limited. But one would have to wait until the end of the world for Kone, Elisa, or Vaisala to be undervalued and Inderes to offer a BUY recommendation… (Of course, this did happen during the COVID dip)

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For many developing countries, the situation is difficult. Weather observation equipment is needed, but how are the acquisitions financed? The poorest, like Haiti, have received equipment as donations, but there would certainly be more need. It is difficult to estimate whether there would now be even pent-up demand that would eventually be released.

I myself suspected that the projects would face more challenges, but now it seems that the projects have progressed quite well. Traffic problems do not seem to have affected the company. The corona dip would have been a good buying opportunity. I think that the recommendation will not yet rise to the buy side with this profit expectation, but we will see soon.

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Updating Vaisala’s target prices in the thread.

OP’s report highlighted the success of product development and the economies of emerging markets as risks for Vaisala. Economic problems in developing countries have already been discussed:

  • According to a World Bank report published in June, the GDP of developing countries is estimated to contract by -2.5% this year. This estimate is the weakest since 1960.
  • developing economies have been affected by falling commodity prices and capital outflow.

According to OP’s report: “A significant portion of Vaisala’s orders come from emerging markets”. The report mentions Argentina’s economic problems as an example of the risks brought by economic uncertainty. However, the report does not elaborate on the share of developing countries and its risk for Vaisala.

Vaisala has not disclosed the exact share of emerging markets in its operations in its reports, but the company’s ongoing multi-year projects in Vietnam, the Bahamas, and Argentina are known. Vaisala’s revenue by geographical area in 2019 was as follows: Americas 37%, APAC 30%, and EMEA 33%.

According to Inderes’ comprehensive report, Vaisala’s revenue comes from a large number of different products, and demand is diversified across several small market segments and a wide geographical area. Regarding emerging markets, China’s weight is presumably high, but I did not find a more precise estimate in the reports.

It would be interesting to hear the analyst’s view, @Joni_Gronqvist, on Vaisala’s “emerging market risk” on the forum or in future reports, if possible.

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Update to the Vaisala thread. This week at the TU-Automotive Detroit event, Vaisala and Hyundai announced a cooperation agreement for the Vaisala Infotainment Weather service. Link to Vaisala’s press release 18.8.2020.

Hyundai already reported on this in the spring. (Link: Information about Vaisala’s cooperation on Hyundai’s website)

  • Vaisala provides weather data to the new Hyundai i30 model for Hyundai Live services
  • Live services are available in models with a factory-installed navigation system. In new models, the Live service includes a 5-year free license, which can be extended later.
  • The cooperation with Hyundai covers cars delivered to the entire European region, Russia, the United States, and Canada.

Tekniikan Maailma reported in June that Vaisala will in the future provide weather data to a large proportion of Hyundai Group cars (Genesis, Hyundai, and Kia models). (Link: Tekniikan Maailma’s news)

Vaisala Infotainment Weather
This Vaisala digital service provides the driver with important weather and driving condition information through the car’s infotainment system.

  • on average, one in four traffic accidents is related to bad weather conditions
  • Vaisala’s technology can predict conditions along the driving route even if weather measurements are not available.
  • includes location-specific weather data (temperature, precipitation type, wind speed)
  • combining the study of changing weather conditions and the constantly changing location of the car requires the production and distribution of local and real-time weather data using highly advanced methods.
  • Vaisala’s data collection system enables real-time driving condition forecasts (such as road surface condition, visibility) for any location on Earth
  • With the increasing number of driver assistance systems, drivers can be provided with information on, for example, road surface conditions and road friction

Image: Weather in Hyundai Live

Säätila Hyundai Live
Säätila Hyundai Live629×236 100 KB

Vaisala Digital in the automotive industry
For Vaisala, car weather services are a new business area. In October 2019, Vaisala acquired professional weather services from Foreca, which also include weather services delivered to cars.

The acquired business became part of the new Vaisala Digital unit, which produces weather forecasts for demanding professional use, for example, for the automotive industry and road maintenance operators.

For Vaisala Digital, this Hyundai cooperation is the first announced agreement. Previous agreements for Foreca’s professional weather services have been reported:

  • in 2015, Foreca made its first agreement in the automotive sector when it agreed with BMW to provide weather services to all BMW cars equipped with ConnectedDrive functions in 40 countries. (Link: M&M news from 2015)
  • in 2018, it was reported that Foreca would provide continuously updated global road weather forecasts for Bosch’s predictive weather services (Link: Autotoday’s news on cooperation in 2018)
  • in 2018, Foreca’s weather data for Daimler’s MBUX infotainment system (Link: Foreca’s press release in 2018)

So, this new business area of Vaisala Digital seems quite interesting, also regarding the automotive sector.

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Interesting, I’ll have to follow it more closely in the future. Vaisala has received far too little attention in my own calculations and, more generally, is a company that is very little followed in relation to its quality and potential. It has also been chronically valued on the more expensive side, which may have affected interest.

I bought it for my daughter back in the day, and now it’s up +350% plus several years of good dividends. I couldn’t fit it into my own portfolio because I had other small tech stocks :roll_eyes:

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That’s a nice return on Vaisala shares achieved @Peelo. :+1:

I must admit that Vaisala Digital is the least familiar part of Vaisala to me. Regarding Vaisala Digital, the company has stated that the goal is to develop businesses such as modeling, forecasting, and visualizing urban air quality, and to offer digital value-added services that work together with Vaisala’s measuring devices.

Services for cars are examples of these potential value-added services. Vaisala previously acquired Vionice, through which Vaisala gained machine vision and artificial intelligence expertise, which I could imagine bringing added value to these value-added services as well. Commercially, the starting point is probably still quite low.

Analysts’ assessments look positive. In Inderes’ comprehensive Vaisala report 9/2019, the Digital unit was described as follows:

  • Vaisala’s weather data services are highly scalable, but increasing their share is challenging in the short term → this is why Vaisala reorganized its digital services and made a small acquisition by purchasing Foreca’s business operations
  • “in our view, digital solutions have great growth potential in the future, even if they do not currently generate large revenues.” (comprehensive report 9/2019, p. 12)
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Seems like an interesting quality company. A change of CEO is always a point of discontinuity. Any thoughts on the new CEO? And on the company in general? It might be that this would become an additional company in my portfolio to improve diversification…

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I agree with @xlat, a CEO change is always a kind of discontinuity.

Forsén has been Vaisala’s CEO for 14 years, so he is very experienced. According to his CV, Öistämö has worked for a long time at Nokia and was a member of Nokia’s leadership team for 8 years. He is now moving from his position as COO of InterDigital.

It’s quite difficult to evaluate these situations. The new CEO comes from outside the company, so he is not fully aware of the company’s situation. For example, Sampo has aimed to find leaders from within the group. Even now, Magnusson rose to the position of CEO from within the company.

For example, among the CEOs who made it onto the Harvard Business Review’s list of the world’s 100 best CEOs in 2015, as many as 86 percent were appointed from within the company. My gut feeling is that for Finnish listed companies, the CEO often comes from outside the company.

Vaisala’s strategy is unlikely to change much. This way, the change of CEO would not cause a major discontinuity. According to Vaisala’s press release, Forsén “will focus on supporting the smooth transfer of CEO responsibilities to Öistämö during the rest of the year.” This is a fairly common practice.

A comment on the topic can be found on Inderes’ company pages. Analyst Joni Grönqvist commented on the new CEO as follows: Vaisala nimitti uuden toimitusjohtajan - Inderes

Quote from the comment: “Based on his background, Öistämö seems like a good choice to continue implementing Vaisala’s long-term strategy, which is based on high added value and technology leadership. We do not expect major changes to the long-term strategy implementation. However, some interesting additional flavors may come to the business as the new CEO’s own background and views emerge.”

It will be interesting to see what kind of additional flavors are coming to the business.

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In Kauppalehti today, 14th September, there are two articles about Vaisala. Both articles are only accessible to subscribers (paywall).

The article discussed, among other things, the total return on the share during Forsén’s tenure and corporate responsibility.

  • Total return during Forsén’s CEO period:
    He started as CEO on 1st October 2006, when the share price was €13.75. Now the price is €35.35.
    The share price has risen 157% + dividends paid €8.07 = > total return 215.8%.
  • In the article, OP’s analyst Gorschelnik highlighted Vaisala’s corporate responsibility (ESG).
    Vaisala has aspects suitable for responsible investing (environmental, social, and governance, ESG). At the Nordic level, such companies are highly valued.
  • The article stated, among other things, that Öistämö emphasizes open communication and clarity in decision-making in his leadership.
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“There probably won’t be any major challenges for the new CEO to solve at this time, but new opportunities must always be identified.”

In the article, OP’s senior strategist Kim Gorschelnik sees acquisitions as an opportunity to accelerate growth. In my opinion, when a CEO comes from outside the company, they don’t immediately have a full grasp of the company, and it takes time to truly understand where the company stands. Therefore, I sincerely hope that if any major acquisitions are made in the near future (e.g., in the next couple of years), the company’s lower management and experts will be very strongly involved. It simply takes time to get acquainted with a company, especially a high-tech firm like this…

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In this regard, I only just noticed today an update to the Phoebus fund’s blog that appeared on September 10th. Anders Oldenburg comments in the blog on Vaisala’s new CEO. As of August 31, 2020, Vaisala’s share in the Phoebus fund’s portfolio was 4.84%.

A direct quote from the blog:
“Kjell Forsén has done an excellent job for 14 years. I don’t know Öistämö. The appointment once again shows that for some reason, boards in Finland prefer to rely on headhunters rather than looking at their own company’s promising talents, unlike what is generally done in the USA, for example.”

“I don’t quite understand why external leaders are favored in Finland. It usually takes them a few years to learn the company before they can start developing it, and the lost time naturally benefits competitors. In addition, it is more difficult to know if an external leader fits the company’s culture. Presumably, this is precisely why the world’s best companies generally recruit internally.”

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Vaisala issued a press release today about a new method for detecting air leaks in power transformers.
The new method is based on measuring the total pressure of gases dissolved in the transformer’s insulating oil.

This seems like a good case study for Vaisala’s high-tech measurement device. I would assume that the competition here is not on product price, but on the reliability and accuracy of the measurement results.

According to Vaisala, the new solution will be delivered to Optimus™ OPT100 DGA gas analyzer customers as a software update. (Optimus™ OPT100 DGA-kaasuanalysaattori)

  • an advance compared to an oxygen sensor, which does not detect air leaks if an oxygen-consuming reaction occurs in the transformer.
  • no calibration gases needed and no wear parts, filters, or membranes that need to be replaced
    => the world’s first maintenance-free dissolved gas analyzer for transformers.
  • the device’s self-diagnostics enable automatic recovery even after a power outage.
  • gas vacuum separation provides stable measurement results (temperature or pressure of air does not cause deviations)
  • air leaks are detected at an early stage => brings cost savings

Link to Vaisala’s introductory video:

  • According to Vaisala’s website, about half of all transformer failures can be prevented by condition monitoring during operation.
  • Many current monitoring solutions give false alarms and require regular maintenance => takes up working time and causes additional costs

Case examples:

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Yes, in these high-tech devices, the competition is not based on the selling price but on what the customer gains from the device. If the device brings about a significant improvement in reliability and/or reduces process operating costs, it is worth paying a good amount for it. Different laws apply here than in bulk production.

I was thinking that Vaisala should keep an eye on R&D investments in the near future, so that the new CEO doesn’t start cutting them. Vaisala’s business is based on a product development pipeline, from which new products and improvements to existing ones are obtained with a small delay. Saving on R&D would not be immediately visible in turnover, but the erosion would happen gradually, and after 2-3 years, turnover and profitability would slowly start to decline.

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I was thinking the same thing, but it’s hard to imagine such a radical change given the new research centers under construction and the ridiculously strong track record of the development pipeline.

The great thing about these transformer meters is that if you can get the device to work reliably and, for example, identify transformer faults in advance before a total failure, the customer’s savings can be measured in the millions. Thus, customers are happily willing to pay tens of thousands (thousands in margin) for such a meter. Competition in these is generally very limited, and Vaisala’s reputation as a Finnish quality company is not easy for competitors to beat.

I myself would hope that Vaisala would further increase R&D and take a bit more of a “doing” approach alongside research, so that products could be brought out of the production pipeline faster. There are endlessly potential concepts when you look around at what kind of meters and data would be needed in the world. As an owner, growth is slow and steady, and it’s somewhat a shame to wait and wonder why Vaisala doesn’t more boldly start conquering this measurement scene, where expansion possibilities are endless.

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