Tokmanni - House of Opportunities?

[Jukka7]

[quote="Roskapankin_paavi, post:4078, topic:2105"]\nSwedish discount retail, including e.g. Rusta, seems to be focused again on larger centers,\n[/quote]\n\nIisalmi | Rusta.com\n\nFor now, yes, but expansion is happening to smaller localities as well. This week marks the grand opening in Iisalmi (approx. 20,000 residents).

[Needles]

@\"Roskapankin_paavi

Tokmanni probably doesn’t publish these figures, but based on the store distribution, I would guess that about a third of the Finnish revenue comes from small towns, half from medium-sized towns, and a fifth from large towns. The concept works because in many locations Tokmanni is the only general store. The Swedish discount retail market, including Rusta, for example, seems to be focused more on larger centers, so perhaps small backwaters (byhålat) are the hope for the new Dollarstore in Sweden.

Tokmanni is also likely the only shoe and clothing store within a radius of dozens of kilometers in many smaller towns. I recall seeing figures somewhere stating that, among brick-and-mortar stores, Tokmanni has at least been Finland’s second or third most popular clothing store. And on the same shopping trip, you end up grabbing a screwdriver, garden decorations, and a massage gun. Without the local Tokmanni, you’d have to drive some 40 kilometers away for each of these items, especially now that driving (temuttaminen) has also gotten more expensive.

However, here are two megatrends that Tokmanni can do nothing about, but which will eventually have to be faced:

1. Finns (and especially young people) are gradually moving from small towns to growth centers.
2. At least some competitors are gradually creeping into smaller and smaller localities.

[JuhaR]

@Needles

Without their hometown Tokmanni, people would have to travel about 40 kilometers away to get each of these items, especially now that Temu-ing has gotten more expensive too.

Temu is hardly the only player capable of shipping those packages to the countryside.

Temu restrictions are certainly welcome, but in my opinion, their impact on Tokmanni shouldn’t be exaggerated. Nor should anyone kid themselves into thinking that new, consumer-friendly delivery models won’t be developed to take their place from one country or another.

[JuhaR]

OP published a report today regarding Tokmanni and Puuilo titled “Kilpailukentän myymäläkapasiteetti jatkaa kasvussa lähivuosina” (Store capacity in the competitive landscape will continue to grow in the coming years). Artificial stupidity summarized the section of the report concerning the store openings of various operators into a concise format:

Store plans of retail chains

• Tokmanni: Opening a new store in Kivistö, Vantaa, in late 2026. Currently updating its strategy, which will clarify future plans.
• Puuilo: Expanding to Sweden and targeting approximately 7–10 new stores per year in 2026–2030. The goal is to exceed a total of 100 stores by the end of the 2030 financial year (at least 7 openings annually in Finland).
• Rusta: Has confirmed 8 new store openings in Finland. At the group level, plans include 65–80 new openings across the Nordic countries and Germany.
• Jula: Opening 7 new stores in Finland during the autumn of 2026 and early 2027. Going forward, targets about 5 new department stores annually.
• Biltema: Plans 9–10 new department stores in Finland in the coming years, three of which will materialize in late 2026.
• Motonet: Focusing more clearly on expansion in Sweden; only one store has been opened in Finland during 2025–2026.
• Kesko & S Group: Kesko plans to open 4 new hypermarkets in the coming years (already opened two Citymarkets in early 2026). Meanwhile, the S Group plans to open 5 new hypermarkets in the coming years.
• Normal: The number of stores has exceeded 100 units. Opening at least two stores in the autumn of 2026 and sees potential for about 40 additional stores in Finland.
• J. Kärkkäinen: Confirmed a store opening in Pirkkala for 2027 and is planning a store in Kempele.
• Clas Ohlson: Opening two new stores in late 2026 (already opened one in early 2026).

---

[ValkoinenPeura]

The share price recovered quite quickly to the pre-earnings level, and at the same time, short positions have been on a slight increase, now standing at a solid 3.9% of the shares:

That shorted amount corresponds to over 2.3 million shares, which is a pretty decent chunk relative to Tokmanni’s average daily trading volume (+200 thousand shares). The actual number of shorts is certainly somewhat higher, as this only includes short positions exceeding 0.5%.

It will be interesting to follow how long they intend to sit on their short position and whether they will continue to add to their shorts as the price rises.

[JuhaR]

@ValkoinenPeura

The share price recovered quite quickly to the pre-earnings level, and at the same time, shorts have been on a slight increase, now standing at a solid 3.9% of the shares:

Yes, I believe the number of those positions was over 4% just a moment ago, so the total amount has actually decreased slightly.

The share price has now risen by 60 cents since the release of the announcement regarding Saastamoinen’s share purchases. Seppo buys every year regardless of the price level, so those purchases at least don’t tell me anything about the cheapness or expensiveness of the stock. Once again, I pressed the take-profit button with this paper.

[ValkoinenPeura]

@\"JuhaR

If I recall correctly, the number of those positions was just a moment ago over 4%, so the total amount has even slightly decreased.

I didn’t follow the levels prior to the earnings report very closely myself, but after the earnings report, the shorts increased slightly. Now, according to the new data, however, they have turned downward. That 0.12% reduction in shorts corresponds to about 70 thousand shares, which may have contributed to pushing the price up:

From here: Current net short positions - Notification of short positions - www.finanssivalvonta.fi

you can also find historical data if you want to examine it more closely.

[Markus10]

Tokmanni is starting to sell phones. If I understand correctly, this is a new venture for them?

Xiaomin älypuhelimet ja muut tuotteet palaavat myyntiin Suomessa –...

[yellowbeak]

Phones really have dismal hardware margins (often negative), so there’s no reason to be too excited about this unless the dynamics of the home electronics market have completely changed since the 2010s. With phones, value-added services and accessories are where the margin comes from, and I don’t really see subscription/carrier salespeople at Tokmanni.

[Vanerihands]

@Markus10

Tokmanni alkaa myydä puhelimia.

However, the news article stated this:

Tokmanni, on the other hand, will focus on selling Xiaomi’s wide range of smart home devices, which include robot vacuums and kitchen products, for example.

[peruspiensijoittaja]

This could perhaps have been posted in the Puuilo thread as well. But maybe because of Dollarstore, it fits better here. That is, market development from the perspective of competitors. I have previously written that in Tokmanni’s investment story, the significance of competitors will be even more relevant in the coming years. Tokmanni & DS are in a situation where the greatest growth has been built on the store network. Especially in Finland, that “new store” growth is hardly available anymore (without cannibalization). And in Sweden, expansion is on hold because the direction of the concept is not clear—it’s not worth scaling a dysfunctional concept.

And correspondingly, many competitors are, especially in Finland, just starting their “fastest expansion pace”—meaning right where Tokmanni was in 2015-2024. In some years, they used to open 15 new Tokmannis—this year, I believe, 2-3 openings (in such affluent areas as Ivalo with 3,000 residents and Ähtäri with 5,000 residents)? That is why I think a Tokmanni investor should be extra alert over the next few years regarding what competitors are doing. I would even go as far as to say that competitors are the single most important factor affecting Tokmanni in 2026-2027 (e.g., of greater potential significance than PL development, the cost-cutting program, marketing strategy, etc.). When a direct competitor opens right next door, the growth of the local market size is simply not enough for both.

Indeed. When a new competitor enters a town, the discount retail pie always grows a little bit. But sharing that pie still takes a bigger slice (than the growth of the whole pie compensates for). And as is well known, responding to the competition means, among other things, narrowing margins and heavier marketing expenses…

Rusta
Opening 6 stores in Finland this autumn alone!?! “We continue to expand at a high pace, which demonstrates the strength of our store pipeline and the significant growth opportunities we see across our markets. Our strategy remains unchanged.”

14 new stores this autumn as Rusta continues to grow across all markets - Rusta

Clas Ohlson
Not growth based heavily on new openings. But I’d say quite convincing execution. Do they even have the best “discount retail” figures in Finland and Sweden? May – July +9% organic growth in Finland and +11% organic growth in Sweden. Somewhat different figures compared to Tokmanni or Dollarstore with the same consumers and the same weather…

Cosalesreportjul2026.pdf

Jula
When Rusta this week is gloating that “we are opening 6 stores in Finland this autumn,” what does Jula do the same week!?!?

Jula: “Hold my beer.”

Jula is opening 7 new department stores in Finland during the rest of the year! Jula avaa seitsemän uutta tavarataloa Suomessa kuuden kuukauden aikana - Jula AB/Jula

“It is particularly pleasing to see how Jula continues to grow in Finland. We have a strong offering that Finnish customers appreciate, and we see great opportunities for the future.”

Biltema
And at the same time, Biltema also announces that it does not intend to wait around in the Finnish market. Market shares are being aggressively pursued with 10 new stores, and especially the Biltema Cafe is sought as a competitive advantage that others probably do not have.

https://www.biltema.fi/uutta-ja-hyodyllista/uutiset/10-uutta-tavarataloa-ja-kahvilaa-suomeen/

Puuilo
Nor is the domestic competitor sitting completely silently watching the Swedes’ charge on home turf—instead, it is launching a counter-offensive to compete on away turf. But even in Finland, the expansion pace remains quite brisk. This year, there will probably be 7 new stores?

Puuilo avaa myymälän Turkuun

And above, of course, is only a fraction of the competitors. But when within the span of a week, 3 strong Swedish players announce how investments and expansion are being accelerated even further, a justified question arises in my mind: when Tokmanni takes a hit in Sweden with Dollarstore’s concept change, how will it go for the group’s brick-and-mortar backbone, Tokmanni, as the Swedish charge slowly gathers momentum on home turf?

When a Rusta, Jula, and Biltema open right next to a basic Tokmanni—what will be Tokmanni’s competitive advantage and strategic direction of the concept over the next 24 months, ensuring that despite new competitors, sales do not drop, price competition and margins do not fall, fixed cost percentage does not rise, and marketing expenses do not increase?

Recommendation for fellow Tokmanni investors: Keep your eyes on the competitors for the next twenty-four months at home. And on that comp growth.

[Jukka7]

Food and clothing. Biltema doesn’t have gingerbread cookies or summer dresses.

[Maikki1]

Affordable children’s clothing and accessories, and after that, Tokmanni’s rise cannot be stopped. You can get groceries from wherever you want, but with those [offers] the whole family comes in and there is always something for everyone. This used to work for Tokmanni regarding children’s clothing, and back then the share price was twenty euros. It wouldn’t take much more than that. However, Biltema, Motonet, and Puuilo don’t attract the whole family for shopping in the same way.