Tokmanni - House of Opportunities?

Press release regarding SPAR products. The first SPAR fresh food department is opening in the summer. Shout out to the channel if you see renovations in any Tokmanni fresh food store this early summer!

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CEO Mika Rautiainen gave a presentation at the Annual General Meeting. The slides can be found on the following page:

Direct link to the file.

Briefly about Dollarstore. Timo Heino is Dollarstore’s CEO. Nina Anttila has been appointed as the director responsible for the supply chain in his place, starting in the autumn.
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Tokmanni’s and Dollarstore’s general merchandise side will be fully integrated, but differences in groceries will remain. It was still hinted, of course, that Spar does not operate in Sweden.

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Here is the release:

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Am I understanding correctly from this and the meme thread that @Vanerihands was physically present at the general meeting in Mäntsälä!? I myself can’t really come up with any more reasons why I wasn’t there this year either; the lottery choice, however, was the cancellation of the ride, which I don’t think has been used yet :slightly_smiling_face:. The slow arrival of spring naturally prevented me from using rail transport and the brisk 3.5-kilometer scenic walking route from Mäntsälä station to the administration and logistics center.

Later in the afternoon, however, I met several people who had been there, at the general meeting of Nokian Rinkulat. As I understand it, no explanation was given for Anders Kind’s disappearance from the management team in the best Stalinist era style, and Seppo Saastamoinen had promised to serve as an active rank-and-file member of the board, now that he had stepped down from the chairmanship. I didn’t remember to ask about the refreshments; I expect someone to remedy this shortcoming and inform us how Mr. Tokmanni remembered the shareholders this time :slightly_smiling_face:!?

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“It was revealed on site that a vehicle combination was parked in front of the store’s front door, and its driver was unloading cargo with a forklift. During the unloading, an elderly person moving in the store’s yard was run over by the forklift, according to the police statement.”

Most likely, the forklift driver was operating in an unprotected area, and the customer was run over by the forklift.

Such situations are seen daily on summer streets, when no one seems to care about the safety of outsiders. And this was not the first fatality due to this negligence (and probable violation of the law).

May the deceased rest in peace, and strength to the loved ones.

Hopefully, Tokmanni updates its employee guidelines, monitors compliance, and thus prevents serious accidents in the future.

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Here are Arttu’s preview thoughts as Tokmanni reports its Q1 results on Friday. :slight_smile:

We expect Q1 growth to have been moderate due to Finland’s challenging operating environment and the differing timing of Easter compared to the comparison period. Our earnings forecast, which is at the level of the comparison period, is explained by a combination of moderate volume development and growth investments. We anticipate the company reiterating its guidance. From the results day, we expect comments on the development of the market situation, the effects of US customs policy on discount retail, the competitive situation, and the progress of procurement integration. We will go through Tokmanni’s results in a live broadcast starting at 7:55 AM on InderesTV.

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It’s interesting to see, by the way, when Tokmanni will announce the financial targets for the next strategy period, as the current one ends this year. The Capital Markets Day concerning them will at least be in the autumn, as no announcement has been made yet. Another thing to consider is that Rautiainen’s (b.1962) retirement age is approaching, though I have nothing against him continuing past due :slight_smile: .

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It’s unlikely that those truck drivers are on Tokmanni’s payroll.

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Mr Tokmanni often seems to drive a truck, at least according to television.

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Nordea julkaisi päivitetyn Tokmanni-analyysinsä. Suositus (PIDÄ) ja Fair value (12,30 €) pysyvät ennallaan. :point_down:

Key upside risks: Tokmanni could post higher-than-expected LFL growth and increase its gross margins further. An increasing share of high-margin products, e.g. clothing and other private-label products, could support earnings going forward. A sudden recovery in consumer confidence could affect Tokmanni’s sales and earnings. In a downturn, the co mpany could increase its market share considerably without hurting its gross margin. The integration of and synergies from the Dollarstore acquisition could also offer more upside than expected.

Key downside risks: Gross margins and earnings could be negatively affected if Tokmanni refrains from increasing its selling prices to defend market share. Its product assortment remains sensitive to weather. Consumers could shift from general discounters to specialised discount stores. A general downturn in the economy could have an impact on performance, as witnessed by the recent profit warning. Ambitious growth targets could operationally increase risks due to more challenging category management. The Dollarstore acquisition increases leverage, and integration synergies might not be achieved.

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Nordea seems to be the most bearish on Tokmanni, whereas yesterday I spotted in Kauppalehti’s flash news: SEB raises Tokmanni’s target price to 18 euros from 16 euros, reiterates buy recommendation.

Quite a bold move to raise the target price just before Q1; I don’t have access to the assumptions. I myself am positioned for a potential disappointment. On the other hand, there were quite early spring days in March, at least somewhere in Finland, and it wasn’t until April-May that spring’s progress faltered. Somehow I still believe that when the stars align properly, Tokmanni can really hit it big. After all, synergies have been gained from the Dollarstore acquisition, and cost discipline has certainly been strict otherwise. The cost of financing has also slightly decreased from peak years, so now, if we could get good spring sales, things would start looking nice. Tokmanni has probably only once reported a positive result in Q1, was it in 2021!?

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Exactly. Q1 is almost always at a loss, as was the case with Anttila, for example. The delayed spring season probably weighs on sales. Christmas sales then largely determine the result.

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@Sijoittaja-alokas already linked @Arttu_Heikura’s preview comment, at the end of which there was a link to this live stream, but just in case someone missed it, today, indeed, the first ever Tokmanni live stream is coming up in just a moment! :star_struck:

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Thanks @Arttu_Heikura for the good live stream.

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Ugly result. As far as I understand, Tokmanni disappointed in terms of revenue and Dollarstore in terms of profit.

Link to Tokmanni’s release: https://ir.tokmanni.fi/fi/news-and-media/pr-story?itemid=712857963A281572

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Sweden’s result is, as one might have expected after Dollarstore’s CEO left the company. And Tokmanni didn’t even consider this information worthy of a press release? Poor conduct from the company to conceal this, luckily I came across it on Twitter.

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“After a challenging first quarter of the year, it is very nice that the second quarter has started on a positive note. Sales of SPAR products have started briskly in all our Tokmanni stores, and the product assortment will significantly expand this year. The sales of spring season products are also clearly ahead of last year, and for the first time, a wide range of Tokmanni Group’s private label spring season products are available in stores in Sweden and Denmark.”

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Hopefully, the corporate cultures of Dollarstore and Tokmanni can be adapted without much pain. In the past, I closely followed the clash of corporate cultures between Kesko and Anttila, and it didn’t end well. If Timo Heino, as the new CEO, still has to change other management at Dollarstore, the difficulty factor increases.

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Tokmanni has a lot of catching up to do for the rest of the year. Was this the worst Q1 result ever!? Seasonality is indeed one of the weaknesses of this case, except now there seemed to be other factors at play as well. @Arttu_Heikura very well spotted the situation with the distribution of advertising leaflets in Finland during the earnings live stream, as this has, at least historically, a direct impact on sales. The timing of Easter also usually has quite a big impact on the retail sector.

The situation with Dollarstore is also concerning. Hopefully, it’s not one of the unsuccessful Finnish acquisitions in Sweden. Is something wrong with that culture, or are Finns still looked down upon a bit in our western neighbor?

If one looks for something positive, sales of spring season products are clearly ahead of last year. Aha, someone already wrote about this in English. Even though inventory levels are currently high (cash flow points to this), it can be a good thing if business is indeed booming.

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Even at this stage, I would say that regarding the full-year earnings guidance, the lower end of the operating profit expectations of 100 million euros will be tight.

I’m afraid that Tokmanni’s business has hit a slump.
Revenue is not growing, profit is falling, dividend is falling.

Dollarstore now needs a competent and strong professional at the helm, who knows the Swedish market well.

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In this current world, I wonder if “dollarstore” is a very appealing name? Inevitably, the idea of a dollar links somehow to Americanism, which is probably not a very popular trend, especially considering expansion into Denmark. Should the entire store network be brought under the Tokmanni brand and try to start from a clean slate?

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Dollarstore is becoming a major headache: costs and inventory grew significantly. It’s hard to believe that ship will turn around in a few months.

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