Starbucks - The Lidl Coffee Is Not Enough

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Starbucks Corporation is an American multinational coffeehouse chain headquartered in Seattle. Starbucks was founded in 1971 and has become the world’s largest coffeehouse chain. In November 2022, the company had 35,711 stores in 80 countries, 15,873 of which were located in the United States. Over 8,900 of the U.S. stores are company-owned, and the rest operate under license.

Starbucks is widely considered a pioneer of the second wave of coffee culture, as it offered customers a broader range of coffee experiences. The chain’s offerings include hot and cold drinks, whole-bean coffee, instant coffee, espressos, caffè lattes, and loose-leaf teas. Additionally, the selection includes juices, Frappuccino drinks, pastries, and snacks. Many products are seasonal or regionally tailored. Most coffeehouses also offer free Wi-Fi, but there’s nothing remarkable about that.

Starbucks was founded in 1971 by Jerry Baldwin in Seattle. In the early 1980s, they sold the company to Howard Schultz, who, after visiting Milan, decided to turn the coffee bean store into a coffeehouse serving espresso-based drinks. Schultz served as CEO from 1986–2000, during which time he aggressively expanded the company first in Seattle and then across the U.S. West Coast. Schultz returned as CEO in 2008 during the financial crisis and focused on growing the company’s market share and developing sustainability strategies. In 2017, Kevin Johnson succeeded Schultz as CEO, but Schultz returned temporarily in 2022. Laxman Narasimhan was appointed as Schultz’s successor in April 2023.

In addition to coffee and food, Starbucks offers its official merchandise, such as mugs, tumblers, and coffee-making equipment. Certain “Starbucks Evenings” locations also offer beer, wine, and appetizers. Starbucks-branded coffee products are also sold in grocery stores. In 2010, the company launched the Starbucks Reserve program, which focuses on single-origin coffees and high-end coffeehouse concepts.

What is the investor thinking?

Starbucks has constantly innovated and expanded its business while maintaining its position as one of the world’s most recognized coffeehouse chains. At the same time, it’s quite dominant yet agile in its movements.

The company benefits from strong digitalization, especially through its mobile app and loyalty program, which enhances customer experience and increases sales. Starbucks is also innovative in its product development and constantly offers new specialty coffees and other products, helping it stay ahead of consumer trends.

Starbucks faces significant challenges, such as intense competition in the coffee industry and reliance on coffee as its primary product line. This dependence makes the company vulnerable to fluctuations in consumer preferences and coffee prices. The company’s prices are also higher than many competitors, which may limit its appeal in price-sensitive markets and challenging economic conditions. Additionally, international expansion has been challenging, particularly in India and other culturally distinct markets.

The company is certainly interesting due to its strong brand and innovativeness, even though it constantly faces competition and market condition challenges; however, its ability to renew itself and expand into new markets can bring attractive returns. Sustainability commitments and digital strategy support the company’s long-term growth and competitiveness.

Reading material:

2023

  • Revenue: Growth to 35.98 billion dollars (2023)
  • Operating income: Growth to 5.871 billion dollars (2023)
  • Net income: Growth to 4.125 billion dollars (2023)

2024/Q2

https://x.com/AlphaSenseInc/status/1818377913504252110

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https://x.com/gurgavin/status/1818378477479043082

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I look forward to the near future, when we get to see how a coffee chain transforms into a movie studio :star_struck:

kuva
https://stories.starbucks.com/press/2024/announcing-starbucks-studios/

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Starbucks has experienced major challenges through slowed consumer demand over the past year, facing declining foot traffic and lower-than-expected growth in average transaction values. (According to the Q3 results released yesterday, global sales -3%, transaction volumes -5%, and average ticket +2%). However, the company consistently generates cash, which it aims to distribute. The company has increased its dividend for 57 consecutive quarters, and the CAGR is approximately 20%.

Currently, according to the CEO’s reviews, the main growth focus is China and other international markets, which have experienced significant difficulties. According to yesterday’s Q3 results, revenue in the international segment fell by as much as 7% year-over-year, and the operating margin decreased by 3.4 percentage points. The operating margin in the USA is 21% and 15.6% elsewhere. The stock is currently at roughly its one-year lows.

At the heart of the company is Starbucks’ Loyalty program, where money is deposited onto a virtual card. Loyalty program participants receive benefits, for example, and can purchase gift cards directly in the app, etc. Since this money cannot be withdrawn from the app, Starbucks has larger cash reserves than many financial institutions, and from this, it gets “free growth”.

As an investor, I am interested in the company’s long-term success in developing a commercial coffee culture in the Asian markets and its performance against its biggest competitor, Luckin Coffee, and other “quick-service coffee” providers. The company’s products are certainly not among the cheapest. In their own words, the company does not sell a commodity called coffee, but a service called coffee (the coffee house experience).

Thanks @Sijoittaja-alokas for the opening! This has been on my watchlist for a long time.

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Olli’s latest Earnings Week Summary also featured Starbucks, and the video should start at the right spot, although it’s definitely worth watching the whole podcast. :slight_smile:

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Howard Schultz stepped down as Starbucks CEO last year, but he still wields significant influence as “lifelong Chairman Emeritus.” This deal allows him to attend board meetings and provides perks such as access to the headquarters and a parking space. Schultz also has a stake in one of the company’s suppliers, and the company pays for the use of his private jet, which raises concerns about the company’s leadership and corporate governance.

Schultz claims to be following the company from a distance, but according to the article, his influence is still strong. He remains Starbucks’ largest individual shareholder. Howard is clearly a risk factor for the company.

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New CEO appointed today.

Yesterday I also came across an X thread about Starbucks, where the most interesting part is what’s happening in the Chinese coffee market:

https://x.com/7innovator/status/1823060257402175565?s=46&t=qDMR_G-hy9voJ-cjq9_ZWA

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Thanks for sharing the news and the tweet thread. :+1:


The tweets below cover some topics that have already been discussed, but also something new. :slight_smile:

https://x.com/EconomyApp/status/1823392166913454503

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https://x.com/Alphanso_AI/status/1823336529135116547

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Starbucks’ North America CEO Michael Conway is retiring after 11 years. A successor will not be appointed; instead, North America retail lead Sarah Trilling will report directly to the new CEO, Brian Niccol. Conway will continue as an advisor until the end of 2024.

Trilling’s plans specifically include ensuring that stores deliver drinks and food on time, as well as restoring coffee house culture traditions to Starbucks. This likely means that Starbucks aims to strengthen its brand and improve the customer experience in the U.S. market.

From Starbucks’ materials you can see why there is, of course, a strong emphasis on the US:

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https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/starbucks-north-america-head-retires-after-five-months-in-the-role-3618627

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Starbucks’ poor performance isn’t my fault, even though I started this thread. :frowning:

Apparently, sales in China have weakened. Things aren’t looking great, and it was noted somewhere that a turnaround could take some time—I’m wondering if it’ll even happen… :slight_smile:

https://x.com/DividendTalks/status/1848820513616839165

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Starbucks and similar companies are no longer of interest, or are we slowly bottoming out and heading back up? :slight_smile:

https://x.com/finchat_io/status/1853044473967812862

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Here’s a thought-provoking (and somewhat entertaining) tweet thread for investors about Starbucks. I’m not sure how much this directly benefits an investor considering investing in this company… maybe a little at least. :slight_smile:

https://x.com/BusinessGTX/status/1872990942380343585
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Rest of the tweet thread

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Starbucks is just opening more new stores and here’s a tweet about it. :slight_smile:

https://x.com/FinFluentialx/status/1882337537949147457

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Starbucks reported a fourth consecutive decline in same-store sales (established, operating for over a year), but exceeded expectations in revenue and earnings.

Revenue was $9.4 billion, the same as last year. In the U.S. and internationally, sales decreased by 4%, but in China, sales contracted by as much as 6%.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/28/starbucks-sbux-q1-2025-earnings.html


EDIT:

Now it works.

https://x.com/StockMarketNerd/status/1884351662112006318
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Starbucks’ new CEO Brian Niccol was interviewed by The Wall Street Journal; I haven’t personally read the interview.

The interview covered the company’s challenges and future plans. He wants to restore the café experience to the forefront and streamline mobile ordering. He also emphasized the importance of customer connection, additionally, he is bringing back “the condiment bar” and investing in the comfort of the cafés and clarifying the brand.

https://x.com/EarningsNugget/status/1893749441703883078

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The value of Starbucks’ Starbucks Cards rose to $1.7 billion at the end of the fourth quarter.

This system resembles the “float” concept utilized by Warren Buffett, where a company receives money upfront before it’s used, improving cash flow. This creates upfront cash flow for the company because the customer loads money onto the card but doesn’t use the money immediately.

https://x.com/Quartr_App/status/1898429395976540548

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Starbucks’ growth in India has slowed as consumption weakened due to inflation and credit issues.

Partner Tata opened fewer new stores than planned. The company still believes in long-term growth and is considering price and brand image adjustments to attract a wider customer base.

Starbucks has sought to cater to local favourite flavours in food, with offerings such as chilli paneer sandwiches, as well as smaller “Picco” cup sizes and milky “short” masala chai at Rs320 ($3.70) — a hefty premium to street-side stalls.

Polen Capital has taken a position in Starbucks because they believe that new CEO Brian Niccol’s reforms can revive growth and lead to comfortable results in terms of margins. :slight_smile:

https://x.com/TheMattCochrane/status/1915744350429982880
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Here’s a tweet about Starbucks and its valuations + views. The most interesting thing in the tweet is, of course, that handy table. :slight_smile:

https://x.com/ConsensusGurus/status/1916550880377421981
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Starbucks’ second-quarter results fell short of expectations. Revenue increased moderately, but profit and margins clearly weakened. In North America, sales and customer traffic decreased, although the average transaction grew slightly. Internationally, the situation was better; comparable sales increased, and especially in China, transactions grew, although there, the average transaction decreased. :smiley:

The company continues to implement its “Back to Starbucks” plan and aims to strengthen its operations long-term. Management trusts the strategy in a challenging consumer environment and sees more opportunities than previously estimated.

Starbucks also continued dividend payments and made organizational changes, including the appointment of a new CFO.

https://x.com/Earnings_Time/status/1917314826147357162
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Official Material :slight_smile:


Here’s a bit more comprehensive look at the results, which naturally repeats much of what’s stated above.

Starbucks’ results fell short of expectations, but the company states and hints that a turnaround is underway. Investment in workforce and customer experience is central as automation is scaled back. The company plans to make cafes more comfortable and refine the order preparation process.

Challenges include, among other things, tariffs and coffee price fluctuations.

" Key Points

  • Starbucks missed earnings and revenue estimates for its fiscal second quarter.
  • Same-store sales fell for the fifth straight quarter.
  • Still, CEO Brian Niccol said the coffee chain is seeing “momentum” in its turnaround, even though the effort will pressure earnings."

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/29/starbucks-sbux-q2-2025-earnings.html

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CNBC’s Jim Cramer (=America’s Rookie) expressed his confidence in Starbucks CEO Brian Niccol, even though the company’s earnings fell short of expectations and the stock dropped significantly.

According to Cramer, Niccol’s previous success at Chipotle demonstrates his ability to turn the company around, and although there are challenges, Niccol says progress is being made behind the scenes, and Cramer believes the company will still recover.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/30/jim-cramer-says-starbucks-can-carry-out-turnaround.html

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