Silver price has soared this week
. I’m also waiting to see how that offering ultimately turned out.
SoSi’s stock price hasn’t reacted much to the sudden rise in silver prices, and I don’t believe it will shoot up anytime soon. Many small investors have been burned by this before, and they want to sell their “cheaply” bought IPO shares for a quick profit. The Q1 earnings report will be published at the end of the month, and it won’t be particularly good reading. Still, if the price of silver stays above its current level, it’s clear that there will be upward pressure on the stock.
There’s still time to get on board ![]()
The rise continues surprisingly fast and strong! Silver price +4%, SoSi +22%. Monday started off really nice.
. At this rate, we’ll reach silver’s pre-corona price level very quickly. At this point, I’d feel like taking quick profits, but silver is known for its large price overshoots, and right now, greed triumphs over fear.
https://silverprice.org/charts/history/silver_6_month_o_usd_x.png
I wonder why this stock decided to take off like a rocket from the shore today (almost +40%)? Silver has been rising for a couple of weeks already, and the share result came out a week ago.
As Antti mentioned above, the price of silver has a very large leverage on Sotkamo Silver’s share price. The price of silver has risen by 15% in a very short time, so it’s understandable that SoS’s share price is rising. The rise came faster and steeper than I expected, but I have no complaints. I’ll have to watch this silver rally play out and sell before the end of the month.
The Gold/Silver ratio continues to fall, and soon we’ll be back under 100. Is this how the historical undervaluation of silver will begin to unravel while tensions between China and the US rise?
Why won’t the earnings report at the end of the month be good reading?
Shouldn’t this company be exactly at the point where cash flow starts rolling and the mine is in operation? The price of silver was at a good level for most of the quarter and has already risen back, so write-downs are not necessarily coming.
Q1 earnings for January-February are largely known due to an earlier release (http://www.silver.fi/sivu/fi/press_releases/?show=one&lang=fi&id=BE20DF34E4CE4AC4). I believe there’s a realistic risk that the company has tried to clean up January-February figures and hide surprises until March to make the share issue look better. When this is combined with the clear drop in silver prices in March and the company’s continuous investment needs, I feel that Q1 earnings have significantly more downside than upside. For a speculator, another risk is the tendency of small investors to focus too much on the result and too little on the underlying factors, thus punishing the stock when the results are weak. I’ve already sold my shares with a modest profit of about twenty percent, but I still think the stock has potential for further speculation. I might re-enter if the price drops significantly.
Hmm, after reading that, I’m thinking the same thing. I don’t know if the numbers have been cleaned up, but a continuous need for investment doesn’t sound good in the short term. What kind of silver price hedges does the company have? Could any positive things be realized from them?
According to earlier announcements, the company has not hedged the price of silver in either direction, but is fully exposed to silver price fluctuations. Because of this, changes in the price of silver can provide strong leverage in one direction or another, which is further emphasized by the company’s weak cash position.
how quickly will the price changes be realized in supply contracts or company figures? By all accounts, with this stimulus, silver will exceed 20 dollars this year
The company receives money from deliveries about once a month (not the full market price of metal, of course, because the company delivers concentrate). It is worth reading the Inderes company report a few times and the latest update. Playing on the silver price of 20 dollars an ounce is risky, but certainly possible. My investment happened at a time when the price was 15 dollars an ounce (now 17). Inderes’ forecast assumes a silver price of 16-18 dollars. It requires a very high risk tolerance to be in the stock, and in a bad scenario, it can go badly, especially if you don’t constantly have your fingers on the sell button.
I work in the mining industry and have many colleagues in Sotkamo. It takes quite a lot before a mine like that starts to be profitable; it really just operates hand-to-mouth.
The responsibility of toki vaitiolo in many mines, e.g. Agnico Eagle Kittilä, where it has been for a couple of years, but of course they can start to rise if only the price of silver rises, and Sotkamo also produces other ore, the problem is just in the enrichment.
Interim report from Sotkamo Silver:
http://www.silver.fi/sivu/fi/talousraportit_suomeksi/?show=one&lang=fi&id=9B5D33F0727DE5F5
It looks like new investments in March were as much as in January-February combined, ![]()
Sotkamo Silver published its Q1 report on Friday. The numbers were weaker than our expectations, and the cash flow was still negative. The main reason for this was the persistently high cost level, while revenue was good despite the volatility in the metal markets. The cash flow challenge also kept our view cautious. More detailed comments are in the morning report.
The price of silver has already climbed to nearly 19 USD/oz, so the market situation from Sotkamo Silver’s perspective is at least good again. However, Bloomberg’s consensus forecasts (including only those updated less than 3 months ago), on which our forecasts are based, are at the level of 16-18 USD/oz. Thus, commodity analysts already expect the rise in silver prices to stabilize again, but predictability is, of course, extremely low. In Sotkamo Silver’s case, the key, in my opinion, is still to reduce (mining) costs, as according to my rough calculations, with the cost level of the last half-year, there would hardly be any free cash flow even at the current price level. This, in turn, already causes certain concerns, as the debt repayment challenges that emerged during this spring were largely postponed to next year, and next year, meeting the debt terms would already require quite strong free cash flow.
Now it looks like @Antti_Viljakainen’s prediction came true, just as you warned earlier. Even though the Gold/Silver ratio has clearly broken down and silver prices have “rocketed,” SoS’s failure to control costs effectively negated this. Even though I made an excellent return on this speculation and managed to anticipate a negative Q1 report, with this level of risk, I would have hoped for a triple-digit return figure. Now it’s starting to look a bit like if the price of silver turns downwards in the autumn and the cost level remains the same, the mine’s game is over. Let’s hope, however, that we get at least one successful Finnish mining project now, because another Talvivaara case would ensure that no new mine will ever be opened here with domestic money again ![]()
The company has historically always had problems updating its list of owners. So, there’s hardly any major conspiracy going on.
Rumor has it that ramping up production hasn’t been a walk in the park, but this isn’t a fact.