https://x.com/miningvisuals/status/1971142778907496853?s=46&t=qJwyLTCIHCjRX6P4DtR8Vg
Boliden would be good, yeah.
1 Like
Silver price estimates will soon have to be updated to new figures. Silver at new ATH (All-Time High) levels in 13 years. Usually at these points, the pace only accelerates, and itâs possible that weâll get a moonshot to somewhere between $60-120, after which the price will drop by 50% and consolidate to a new, but higher level than the previous decade. If the price really climbs, we could see interesting quarterly results in the upcoming Q425 & Q126 
. Hopefully, SoS management will now dig out those most challenging silver-bearing sections of the mine, so weâll be debt-free by next summer.
3 Likes
Here are Aapeliâs preliminary comments as Sotkamo releases its Q3 report next Thursday. 
We expect the worst production challenges that overshadowed the companyâs early year to have receded, and momentum to have clearly improved from previous quarters. However, we do not yet expect a completely normal quarter in terms of production volumes, but we forecast that a strong metal market has boosted the operating result to a good level. In addition to the numbers, we are particularly monitoring comments on production development and its long-term stabilization.
4 Likes
When reading Sotkamo Silverâs analyses, itâs worth focusing on whether the discussion is about kronor or euros, also noting analyst @Aapeli_Pursimo
âReflecting a more normal depreciation level and financing costs, we forecast earnings per share to have settled at 0.09 euros.â
4 Likes
Thatâs exactly right 
thanks for your attention! Iâve edited that comment into the correct form 
4 Likes
An interesting day tomorrow, due to the companyâs historically mysterious communications. Anything could come out of it, hopefully it will finally hit the mark and the rockets will fly.
5 Likes
Those who are surprised can leave a heart, what the hell is there to perform. Change the managementâ>
3 Likes
Debt has decreased and the profitability situation has improved - everything else has practically declined.
It went on sale already last week.
2 Likes
Did the management clarify these issues at all live, did anyone follow?
-
In Q3, the silver grade is expected to
return to the anticipated range of 90-110 g/tonne. Reasons given; New capacity coming to the contractor during Q3, meltwaters exceptionally high, additional capacity for the contractor enables production expansion from deeper 460-480 meter levels where silver content should be higher. -
Switching the environmental guarantor will return EUR 3.5 million to Companyâs disposal
Mining volumes are increasing, but development was still quite subdued. The given guidance was renewed, which would mean almost 400 ounces of silver production for Q4. If successful, Q4 will be a game-changer. However, thereâs a fear in the rearview mirror that the targets are too high for the end of the year and that the ounce count wonât reach the 1M level this year. Nevertheless, the price increase effects will be even stronger in the Q4 figures, so the focus is now on the development of production volumes, and especially on feeding the ore, which is one of the few operational things the management can most influence, and it must be ramped up to 120-135 ktonnes.
5 Likes
Aapeli has made a new company report on Sotkamo Silver after Q3.
Sotkamo Silverâs Q3 figures fell short of our expectations, driven by silver production volumes. The companyâs cash position was very weak, and in our view, its financial situation cannot withstand setbacks in strengthening operational cash flow. Thus, we believe unfavorable financing solutions cannot be ruled out. On the other hand, with the current market tailwind, the company should be able to generate good cash flow with even a reasonable performance and strengthen its financial position. However, with prolonged production challenges, we see risks weighing more heavily. Consequently, we lower our recommendation to reduce (previously add) and, due to negative forecast changes and an increase in the required rate of return, our target price to SEK 1.35 (previously SEK 1.50).
2 Likes
In my opinion, Inderesâ view is very cautious. According to my calculations, even that Q3 production is enough for a very good cash flow in the current metal market. The average price of silver in Q3 was about 20% below the current price, and the price increase will be reflected in the results with a 2-month delay. There is risk, but also a possibility for a large return, time will tell.
1 Like
Inderes is always late with its views. Currently, there is 25% upside potential to the target price of SEK 1.35. The price is now SEK 1.08. Still, the recommendation is reduce.
The same problem applies to Endomines; Inderes should update its views on mining companies much more often.
1 Like
Silver prices have again risen closer to $50. If silver content and mining volumes increase towards the end of the year as the company has painted in its earnings calls, a pretty significant Q4 is coming. The probabilities donât speak in favor of this, but of course, the markets donât believe this either. But what is realistic?
If we reach Aapeliâs estimated 0.92 million ounces (the companyâs own range 1.0 - 1.2 Moz), over 300koz will still be raised in the last quarter, which, when compared to history, is a moderate/even unsatisfactory performance (if the challenges of the beginning of the year are removed from the equation). The rise in silver prices will only be fully reflected during Q4.
The company is in a very interesting situation, and it will be interesting to see what the medium-term goals are that will be published during Q4; the publication of life-of-mine/additional drilling results should happen in Q4, and the contractor will change at the turn of the year. If the drilling results are positive, investments in concentrator capacity should also be on the table at these prices. If the price of silver remains at +$40 throughout 2026, and production capacity stabilizes, then this is currently a relatively affordable way to invest in the metal markets.
7 Likes
It can also be a very expensive way to invest in the metal markets if those ounces simply donât materialize. Looking at the companyâs share price, one can see that there is a lot of experience with underperformance. On the other hand, if the tide could be turned, there is also plenty of potential.
3 Likes
Exactly. The companyâs valuation is relatively simple, where the biggest source of uncertainty is production volumes. Even if the price of silver were knocking on $100/oz, SOSIâs value wouldnât be a penny if silver couldnât be extracted from the ground.
Precisely this underperformance is the reason why one has been hanging on with a small position; things have gone so wrong for some time for various reasons, and IF production volumes return to historical levels, there is upward leverage. IF they donât recover but continue on the same path, the current valuation is, in my opinion, neutral. IF operational challenges continue, there is a significant risk of unfavorable financing arrangements as the bottom of the barrel is already visible, and the current valuation is clearly too high.
Everyone assigns their own probabilities to these scenarios.
6 Likes
Sotkamo Silver rose today to become the third largest investment in my portfolio. I expect the price of silver to rise to the $100 - $150 level in
5 Likes
The silver rally is wild right now. Did you become net debt-free already during the spring?
4 Likes
As a penny stock, SoSi hides under many radars and doesnât necessarily get listed at all. As soon as some slightly larger player finds this, itâs off to the races. Compared to other junior mines, SoSi is currently exceptionally cheap relative to the silver ounces it produces. It should double or triple to be at the same level in terms of market value. And note, this silver rally hasnât caught on with these mining companies yet anyway. It always comes with a delay, with the results.
1 Like
Ingredients for a massive boom in Q4. If even slightly below guidance amounts of shiny ore fragments are extracted from the gravel pit, this kiosk will make so much operating profit that even Inderesâ permabear analyst will wake up from their hibernation.
With these silver prices, even those drunks strolling around the mine (who are called employees and management) will start working overtime.
4 Likes
These same stories have been heard before every earnings report, but they just havenât managed to get the goods out of the pit. Why would it be different now?
10 Likes