We are living in changing times. If I remember correctly, on July 7th, DMS becomes mandatory in the EU. This means when you order a new car from the factory today, a DMS practically has to be in the car you order.
Growth is ”mandatory” and SEYE says thanks. So due to order timings, sales will grow significantly as early as Q2.
I am waiting with interest to see when this fact is reflected in the share price. I expect it will be soon
That growth leap is MASSIVE. Here is a copy of the “competitor’s figures” from a post by user Tuulipuku, which also shows the entire market excluding China.
A couple more Design Wins for Smart Eye with a European truck manufacturer. Value 15 MSEK.
Harvest time should be near, which is why I’ve compiled Smart Eye’s Design Wins. July 6th is already only 116 nights away.
As noted in the table, the two largest Design Wins, GM and Ford, won’t enter production until 2028. However, GM already has cars in production from previous Design Wins. Similarly, Honda, one of the largest, apparently won’t enter production until 2027, as is the case with Toyota, which has the greatest potential. So, there should be a solid growth path ahead for the coming years.| Date | Pcs | Million SEK | Assumed OEM | Link |
|----|----|----|----|----|
| 2016 | 1 | | Audi | |
| 2016 | 1 | | BMW | |
| 18.8.2017 | 1 | | BMW | Press Detail - Smart Eye |
| 4.12.2017 | 13 | | Premium European | Press Detail - Smart Eye |
| 6.4.2018 | 1 | | BMW | Press Detail - Smart Eye |
| 24.8.2018 | 5 | 200 | BMW | Press Detail - Smart Eye |
| 10.7.2018 | 1 | 50 | Geely | https://mb.cision.com/Main/15057/2572301/876041.pdf |
| 12.11.2018 | 2 | 50 | BMW | Press Detail - Smart Eye |
| 19.11.2018 | 4 | 125 | BMW | Press Detail - Smart Eye |
| 1.2.2019 | 14 | 150 | Hyundai | Press Detail - Smart Eye |
| 15.5.2019 | 2 | 150 | Nissan/Renault | Press Detail - Smart Eye |
| 27.9.2019 | 8 | 200 | Nissan | Press Detail - Smart Eye |
| 11.11.2019 | 3 | 100 | Mitsux1/2xRenault | Press Detail - Smart Eye |
| 7.1.2020 | 1 | 50 | Chinese 2 | Press Detail - Smart Eye |
| 19.3.2020 | 24 | 500 | GM/Volvo/Audi/Porsche | Press Detail - Smart Eye |
| 14.10.2020 | 2 | 150 | Hyundai | Press Detail - Smart Eye |
| 13.1.2021 | 1 | 50 | Chinese 3 | Press Detail - Smart Eye |
| 29.7.2021 | 4 | 100 | GM | Press Detail - Smart Eye |
| 1.10.2021 | 1 | 25 | Nissan | Press Detail - Smart Eye |
| 7.2.2022 | 1 | 50 | Stellantis | Press Detail - Smart Eye |
| 19.4.2022 | 3 | 50 | Hyundai | Press Detail - Smart Eye |
| 13.7.2022 | 1 | 10 | GM | Press Detail - Smart Eye |
| 19.10.2022 | 6 | 100 | Hyundai | Press Detail - Smart Eye |
| 21.10.2022 | 1 | 50 | Stellantis | Press Detail - Smart Eye |
| 23.11.2022 | 1 | 10 | Premium European / AIS | Press Detail - Smart Eye |
| 5.12.2022 | 2 | 40 | Luxury European / AIS | Press Detail - Smart Eye |
| 8.12.2022 | 4 | 100 | Nissan / Mitsu | Press Detail - Smart Eye |
| 9.12.2022 | 34 | 350 | 3x Stellantis | Press Detail - Smart Eye |
| 15.12.2022 | 53 | 800 | Ford | Press Detail - Smart Eye |
| 30.1.2023 | 3 | 30 | Nissan | Press Detail - Smart Eye |
| 27.2.2023 | 8 | 150 | Traton | Press Detail - Smart Eye |
| 7.3.2023 | 12 | 350 | Hyundai | Press Detail - Smart Eye |
| 6.9.2023 | 12 | 500 | Honda | Press Detail - Smart Eye |
| 1.12.2023 | 9 | 150 | Stellantis | Press Detail - Smart Eye |
| 7.12.2023 | 12 | 150 | Hyundai | Press Detail - Smart Eye |
| 18.12.2023 | 46 | 1550 | GM | Press Detail - Smart Eye |
| 5.1.2024 | 19 | 200 | Stellantis | Press Detail - Smart Eye |
| 29.2.2024 | 3 | 175 | Hyundai CMS | Press Detail - Smart Eye |
| 13.3.2024 | 1 | 100 | Volvo | Press Detail - Smart Eye |
| 14.8.2024 | 35 | 700 | Volvo, GM, Audi, Porsche | |, VW | Press Detail - Smart Eye |
| 29.8.2024 | 1 | 25 | Nissan | Press Detail - Smart Eye |
| 24.9.2024 | 1 | 10 | GM | Press Detail - Smart Eye |
| 12.2.2025 | 2 | 100 | Hyundai IS | Press Detail - Smart Eye |
| 3.4.2025 | 2 | 200 | Toyota | Press Detail - Smart Eye |
| 16.4.2025 | 3 | 75 | Hyundai IS | Press Detail - Smart Eye |
| 30.4.2025 | 1 | 50 | European Luxury | Press Detail - Smart Eye |
| 15.9.2025 | 1 | 50 | Ford | Press Detail - Smart Eye |
| 5.12.2025 | 2 | 15 | Volvo Commercial | Press Detail - Smart Eye |
| 29.1.2026 | 2 | 50 | New Japanese small OEM | Smart Eye Announces First Design Wins Including Alcohol Impairment Detection with New Japanese OEM Customer - Smart Eye |
| 11.3.2026 | 2 | 15 | Traton | Smart Eye Secures Two Additional Driver Monitoring System Design Wins with European Truck OEM - Smart Eye |
NHTSA pours cold water on drunk driving prevention devices in the US.
The law is not yet moving into implementation because the technology is not ready.
Smart Eye has signed an agreement with a European police authority for drug impairment detection.
The agreement is worth approximately 40 million Swedish kronor over a four-year contract period 
Lexus, Timontti, and others could comment on this. From a common-sense perspective, it seems like an excellent idea if it can refine materials and speed up the process. It could lead to significant time and material savings. Is this the case?
I’m quite excited about the news.
I see it this way: Smart Eye is clearly at the forefront of this drug/alcohol detection technology. And as mentioned in the release, this new vertical comes with new potential (TAM) – I hadn’t really anticipated this, even though it’s somewhat obvious. The train is chugging along, and it seems that the Sightic acquisition is profitable despite the criticism. The stock has been under very heavy pressure, and I’ve been waiting for some news like this for a turnaround to happen. Perhaps this will be enough.
I can’t comment on your thoughts in more detail, even though they seem logical. It appears this agreement outside the automotive industry will not be the only one of its kind.
I’ve been surprised by the magnitude of the decline – mostly it has felt technical, combined with the fact that short-sellers have taken advantage. But my confidence in the company has not been shaken.
Many thanks, Lexus. This is how a forum works at its best.
I’ve sometimes watched the British police in action, for example, and there they wait 5-10 minutes for some results… a slip of paper is used in the driver’s mouth and then the matter is examined.
If a device like this could immediately inform the substance and amount, then, for example, annual time and material savings would be significant.
Awaiting further information from SEYE…
Have a nice spring.
It’s unlikely this could reliably identify a substance, let alone quantities. People are all different and come in various sizes. Everyone reacts differently to different amounts. The news even mentions that this technology can quickly determine whether to send someone for blood tests or if there’s no need. Blood tests would then provide precise information.
Comments from Redeye on yesterday’s police deal.
The uniformity of the European government market makes it easier to conquer the next EU countries. In addition to police, they highlighted border guards, customs, and coast guards.
My own comment is that this was again a great opening. High-margin software business with clear value creation and little competition. Quick drug tests in raids cost 15 euros and up in material costs and take about ten minutes. Sightic’s technology makes it possible to remove dangerous drivers from traffic more cost-effectively and efficiently.
I trashed that acquisition earlier. But it’s nice to be wrong; Smart Eye apparently knew exactly what it was doing. Absolutely brilliant that the regulatory market is opening up for that application.
I don’t know if that content is visible to everyone, especially if you haven’t registered on the site. That’s why I’m including an AI summary of the RE analysis below.
1. Agreement Core and Financial Figures
- Value and Duration: Approximately 40 million SEK over four years.
- Nature: This is recurring license revenue, which is high-margin software business. Annually, the revenue increase is about 10 million SEK.
- Profitability: Redeye believes this agreement will help the fresh subsidiary, Sightic, achieve cost neutrality as early as 2026, which is a very fast achievement after the acquisition in February.
2. Strategic Importance: A New Vertical
The news is not just a single order; it opens up a completely new government and public safety segment for Smart Eye:
- Scalability: Redeye emphasizes that European police forces operate in very similar legislative and operational ways. If the technology works in one country, it is easily “replicable” in other EU countries.
- TAM (Total Addressable Market): Smart Eye estimates the potential of the European government market to be over one billion SEK. This includes not only the police but also border guards, customs, and coast guards.
- Technological Advantage: The solution is integrated into police officers’ existing smartphones. It analyzes eye movements and pupils through the camera, reducing the need for expensive and slow blood tests.
3. Impact on Forecasts and Stock
- Forecasts: Redeye does not make immediate changes to its forecasts, as the agreement was partly expected, but it significantly removes the risk of uncertainty regarding the “new vertical.”
- Upside Potential: If similar agreements start coming from other countries, it offers clear upside to analysts’ current numbers. Redeye maintains its positive view on the company’s ability to expand into different sectors.
Agreed. There are so many different types of intoxicating substances that it’s impossible to tell which substance it is by just observing the eyes. However, the pupils can show whether they are pinpoint, medium, or dilated, which gives a clue about the substance used.
This kind of technology probably works mainly for screening, and the most likely intoxicated individuals can be picked out from the crowd for more detailed tests. And a person probably cannot be legally convicted of, for example, driving under the influence solely based on eye movements.
An interesting opening, though. If one has enough imagination, one can imagine such technology scanning cars at traffic lights, for example, and directly reporting suspected intoxicated individuals to the police.
Should Smart Eye start to be valued with multiples of a defense industry AI surveillance company? Next, a cooperation agreement with Palantir, so authorities can monitor drivers’ intoxication levels in real-time via traffic cameras in the Nordics 
Still, I’m not entirely sure if this new acquisition was perfectly timed. I still have mixed feelings about it, but the Q2 report will at least provide an indication of whether this company is headed for the scrap heap or the moon. 
My own thought is that only Q3 and Q4 will show how expectations are met. It’s hard to see how they wouldn’t be met, considering the change in European legislation and existing agreements.
It’s probably not essential to be able to say whether someone has, for example, used amphetamines or cocaine. What’s essential is the knowledge that someone is driving or trying to drive under the influence. More detailed tests can then identify the substance.
Redeye haastatteli kuutta ruotsalaista autojälleenmyyjää selvittääkseen, tuleeko kuljettajan valvontajärjestelmä (DMS) vakiovarusteeksi ennen EU:n takarajaa (7.7.2026).
- Tuotanto on jo vaihtunut: Kaksi kuudesta jälleenmyyjästä vahvisti, että viimeisen kahden viikon aikana toimitetuissa autoissa DMS on jo vakiona.
- Ei enää vanhoja malleja: Eräs suuren volyymin “budjettimerkki” on jo lopettanut tilausten vastaanottamisen autoista, joissa ei ole DMS:ää. Uudet hinnastot, joissa järjestelmä on leivottu sisään, tulevat tällä viikolla.
- Toimitusajat: Useimmat muut odottavat DMS-mallien toimituksia heinä-elokuulle, mikä tarkoittaa, että niiden tuotanto alkaa huhti-toukokuussa.
Redeye pitää ennusteensa ennallaan, mutta toteaa, että riski ennusteiden alittamiseen on pienentynyt huomattavasti:
- Karhuskenaario väistyy: Pelko siitä, että autovalmistajat puskisivat varastot täyteen vanhoja malleja välttääkseen uudet säädökset, näyttää perusteettomalta. Valmistajat eivät halua ottaa riskiä siitä, että niille jää käsiin autoja, joita ei saa rekisteröidä heinäkuun jälkeen.
- Kasvuluvut (Q1 2026e): Automotive-segmentin (autoteollisuus) ennustetaan kasvavan peräti 73 % edellisvuoteen verrattuna.
- Kassavirta: Käyttökate (EBITDA) ennustetaan pysyvän positiivisena (11 milj. SEK), mikä vahvistaa yhtiön matkaa kohti pysyvää kannattavuutta.
A snippet from Nordnet:
GSA Capital Partners has increased its short position in technology company Smart Eye to 0.5 percent of the capital, thus crossing the threshold for public reporting. There are two public short sellers in the company, with Qube Research & Technologies being the other with a position of 1.97 percent. In total, 3.76 percent of the capital is shorted in the company.
The Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority requires that positions above 0.1 percent be reported and short sales above 0.5 percent be made public.
Fuel to the fire when the time comes. At least I believe it will come sooner rather than later.
I’ll give a brief news update, as there have been many things I’ve meant to post about but haven’t gotten around to.
Mobileye announced a Major Design Win for an American OEM’s (Ford or GM) DMS. Smart Eye’s largest single design win is with GM, and the second largest is with Ford. For a moment, I was disheartened, thinking Smart Eye might be replaced by Mobileye. However, it’s most likely for Ford’s SDV program, where Smart has a Design Win for one car model. The rest would then come through Mobileye. In any case, competition is intensifying in this area. Mobileye has another design win with an Indian car manufacturer, so Mobileye is presumably a more affordable option.
A horrific accident occurred in the United States where a Hyundai Palisade’s power-operated rear seat crushed a two-year-old. The accident naturally raises questions from many perspectives about how it’s possible, but it did happen. The car is, of course, under a sales ban, and since the Palisade is one of Smart’s largest sales platforms right now, it directly affects Smart Eye. On the other hand, one of the features of interior sensing is the detection of child seats and passengers, and perhaps such equipment could have prevented the accident. The story doesn’t mention whether the child was in a car seat, however. The incident could influence regulators or Hyundai’s direct willingness to add Smart Eye features. I will post a separate message about Hyundai’s Q1 car sales.
Things happen to Tiger Woods. Years ago, it came to light why Genesis’s DMS didn’t wake up Tiger, who had fallen asleep at the wheel. Now, a Toyota had rolled over while passing a sweeper. Later, at the station, Tiger was found to be in a confused state. Taking tests had been challenging. Perhaps a drunk driving prevention system would have saved Tiger from problems, and Sightic’s devices would certainly have helped the police clarify the matter.
Ford is under investigation for two accidents involving BlueCruise’s automated driving. One line of inquiry concerns Seeing Machines’ DMS, which in one case failed to detect phone fiddling on the steering wheel and intoxication. The accident would probably have happened just as easily with Smart’s algorithm, but the incident supports Martin Krantz’s narrative that a good DMS requires multiple cameras. I believe Volvo would have prevented the accident.
Seeing Machines released its half-year results. DMS is now delivered at a rate of just over 500,000 per quarter, and Smart is quite close in terms of delivery volumes. The CEO stated that with GSR2 coming into force, the number of deliveries should increase 3.5 – 4 fold. Seeing Machines predicts that the non-Chinese DMS market will be about 16 million units this year, concentrated towards the end of the year. Smart could very well achieve a similar market share by the end of the year.
In China, the Audi Q5L, Audi A5L, and Audi A6L have been updated. The better-equipped models of these cars have DMS. Approximately 400,000 units of these three models are sold annually, and CoPilot estimates the DMS take rate for the A6L at 60 percent, for the Q5L at less than half, and for the A5L at about one-third. So, about 50,000 deliveries should support growth quarterly from Chinese Audis. Delivery volumes for the AUDI E5 have surprisingly been low. Now, a larger sibling is coming. Let’s see if sales pick up with that. Audi Q6L E-Tron is delivered several thousand units monthly.
GM is updating its model range significantly slower than, for example, Hyundai. GM previously used Seeing Machines, and since then, Smart Eye has won all Design Wins. Now, the situation seems to be that Smart Eye is used in all other Super Cruise models except for the two best-selling Chevrolet and GMC pickups. The Silverado and Sierra will be updated at the end of the year, and Super Cruise should become more widely available in these models. This will lead to a jump in delivery volumes.