Let’s get back to this now that the new figures are known. The stock had clearly fallen to a very low level due to market psychology, and the target price given is now 50% higher than the share price at the time of writing the message.
Inderes even predicts Siili to trade at EV/EBITA 6 for this year, which is a very low valuation level for a high-quality growth company with such a history.
1 Like
That massive German infrastructure package reminded me that Siili might be the only player with exposure to Germany?
It would be great if crumbs from that giant package would trickle down to a Finnish player in the coming years.
It certainly won’t hurt, at least.
I asked AI for clarification on the topic and this is what it answered.
"Siili Solutions GmbH is a subsidiary of Siili Solutions Oyj, which was established in Berlin, Germany, in 2014 as part of the company’s internationalization strategy.
The Berlin office focuses on providing digital services, software development, and AI solutions especially for the Central European markets.
Operations in Germany have grown particularly with projects related to the digitalization of the automotive industry, as Siili has strongly profiled itself in automotive software development, such as the design and implementation of digital user interfaces for cars.
This has been one of the spearheads of the company’s internationalization.
Based on additional information, the German unit serves a diverse range of customers, including large corporations and technology companies, and it leverages Siili’s extensive expertise, for example, in AI-assisted software development (e.g., the use of GitHub Copilot and other AI tools).
In 2023, Siili Solutions reported that approximately 27% of its revenue came from outside Finland, and the German market has been a significant part of this growth.
The exact number of employees at the Berlin office is not publicly available as up-to-date information, but Siili Solutions Oyj employed a total of 403 people at the group level at the end of 2023, and Germany’s share is part of this total.
In the company’s strategy, Germany is an important market area because it provides access to large industrial and technology companies in Central Europe.
Siili has also sought to strengthen its position in Germany by leveraging its partnerships, for example, with NVIDIA, which supports its AI and data-driven solutions.
According to the latest information (March 2025), operations in Germany are still in an active development phase, and Siili is investing there particularly in AI-assisted software development and customer-centric digital innovations."
1 Like
Gofore also has operations in Germany with over 150 employees.
But Siili is so undervalued that Germany could offer greater leverage for stock price development.
10 Likes
Without delving into the matter too deeply, I wonder why yesterday’s announcement hasn’t been reflected in the stock price at all?
“Siili has been approved as member of Digital Defence Ecosystem, that brings together the leading Finnish technology companies to support national defence capabilities and security of supply.”
“In addition to being now part of the Digital Defence Ecosystem, we have also been selected as an eligible supplier partner in the NATO Communications and Information Agency (NCIA) and the NATO Support and Procurement Agency (NSPA) portals. We are looking forward to being able to support Finland as well as NATO and its member states with our agile solutions”
10 Likes
Here are Joni’s preliminary comments as Siili publishes its Q1 business review on Tuesday. 
Siili Solutions will publish its business review on Tuesday, April 22, estimated by 9:00 AM at the latest. Siili’s last year was difficult, but the trend improved in Q4. We predict revenue continued to decline in Q1, pressured by Finnish business operations. We also expect profitability to have remained under pressure before cost savings begin to take effect in Q2.
3 Likes
Fresh Q1 business review from Siili:
Revenue (29.9 vs 28.9) and adjusted EBITA (€1.3m vs €1.2m) slightly above Joni’s forecasts. Not a word was sacrificed to the trade war in the review, so apparently it’s not visible yet.
Revenue even grew from last year (€29.8m) 
9 Likes
The rocket is getting ready. Finally many deals in the field of artificial intelligence.
CEO Tomi Pienimäki’s review from this spring’s annual general meeting. 
3 Likes
Joni discussed Q1 and outlooks with Tomi Pienimäki from Siili, among other things.
Topics:
00:00 Introduction
00:09 Key highlights of the first quarter
01:53 Revenue development geographically and by industry
04:08 Public sector price pressure
05:31 Profitability drivers
07:20 Change negotiations concluded
07:59 Development of AI projects
10:51 Indirect effects from tariffs
11:31 What does the private sector look like?
13:04 M&A market
4 Likes
Siili’s executives apparently bought quite healthy amounts of shares the day before yesterday. A good sign.
3 Likes
From Inderes Premium, you can search for insider purchases and sales, specifying both the time frame and the company.
Such purchases have been made in recent years.
4 Likes
Here are Joni’s comments on how Siili increased its ownership in Supercharge.
2 Likes
Siili’s CEO Tomi Pienimäki spoke about his company at the IT Services Evening.
1 Like
Here are Joni’s preliminary comments as Siili publishes its results next Tuesday.
Siili’s last year was difficult, but the trend has improved in recent quarters. We forecast revenue to have been at the comparison period’s level, supported by a small acquisition, and thus organically slightly decreased. We expect profitability to have slightly improved from the previous quarter, supported by cost savings from change negotiations. Regarding the full-year guidance, the revenue guidance is, in our view, ambitious, while the earnings guidance is easily achievable due to cost savings.
2 Likes
It’s quite challenging. According to the initiated co-determination negotiations, the goal is clearly to focus on management consulting and thereby grow new strategic customer relationships. This seems consistent in itself, especially in a market where the developer market doesn’t seem to be recovering. At the core of the strategy is still, of course, and with three exclamation marks, artificial intelligence. Has the strategy yet generated any genuine business…
JANUARY-JUNE 2025
- We enhanced our overall offering to be in line with the market demand, and launched a new Advisory business area
- We updated our competence profile to better support our AI-driven strategy and market demand
- Revenue for the first half of the year was EUR 57,543 (59,186) thousand, representing decline of 2.8% year on year
- Adjusted EBITA for the first half of the year was EUR 2,562 (3,309) thousand, which corresponds to 4.5% (5.6%) of revenue
APRIL-JUNE 2025
- We continued to strengthen our overall offering by reforming the operating model of Siili One and clarifying our continuous services concept
- We strenghtened our data and AI expertise and continued the systematic development of our culture
- Revenue for the second quarter amounted EUR 27,627 (29,362) thousand, representing decline of 5.9% year on year
- Adjusted EBITA was EUR 1,294 (1,719) thousand, which corresponds to 4.7% (5.9%) of revenue
| 1-6/2025 | 1-6/2024 | 1-12/2024 | 4-6/2025 | 4-6/2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue, EUR 1,000 | 57,543 | 59,186 | 111,899 | 27,627 | 29,362 |
| Revenue growth, % | -2.8% | -9.3% | -8.8% | -5.9 % | -7.3 % |
| Organic revenue growth, % | -4.8% | 9.3% | -8.8% | -8.0% | -7.3% |
| Share of international revenue, % | 26.1% | 28.0% | 29.0% | 25.1 % | 28.4% |
| Adjusted EBITA, EUR 1,000 | 2,562 | 3,309 | 5,409 | 1,294 | 1,719 |
| Adjusted EBITA, % of revenue | 4.5% | 5.6 % | 4.8% | 4.7 % | 5.9 % |
| EBITA, EUR 1,000 | 1,636 | 2,694 | 4,752 | 428 | 1,319 |
| EBIT, EUR 1,000 | 971 | 2,110 | 3,592 | 50 | 1,028 |
| Earnings per share, EUR | 0.09 | 0.22 | 0.43 | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| Number of employees at the end of the period | 900 | 966 | 942 | 900 | 966 |
| Average number of employees during the period | 921 | 987 | 975 | 929 | 970 |
| Number of full-time employees (FTE) at the end of the period | 882 | 934 | 900 | 882 | 934 |
| Number of full-time subcontractors (FTE) at the end of the period | 132 | 138 | 133 | 132 | 138 |
Outlook for 2025 and financial goals for 2025‑2028
Revenue for 2025 is expected to be EUR 108‑130 million and adjusted EBITA EUR 4.7‑7.7 million.
With the summer holiday season, it’s tough to reach the lower end of the EBITA guidance.
8 Likes
I guess this earnings call is held behind closed doors for a select group?
“Siili will organize an earnings webcast for analysts, portfolio managers and media on August 12, 2025, starting at 1:00 p.m.
The presentation materials for the event will be available on the company’s website after the event.”
Small investors can’t attend and ask questions. Oh well.
18 Likes
Significant cut to the target price, and Inderes simultaneously downgraded to ‘reduce’.
Siili’s revenue trend weakened, and profitability was at the expected level in Q2. The market situation has continued to be challenging, and we are concerned about the weak revenue trend, which dilutes the impact of continuous efficiency measures. In our view, Siili again faces a clear risk regarding its revenue guidance, but profitability is likely to remain at a reasonable level compared to the sector, thanks to new efficiency measures. Due to the weak revenue trend and poor visibility of a turnaround, the stock’s risk-reward ratio is challenging, even though the valuation is not particularly tight (2025 EV/EBITA 9x). We lower the stock’s target price to 5.9 euros (previously 7.5), reflecting forecast changes, and the recommendation to ‘reduce’ (previously ‘buy’).
7 Likes
SEB has put together a fresh company report on Siili ahead of its Q3 results.
“Stable in domestic but international uncertain
We keep our estimates and fair value estimates unchanged ahead of Siili’s Q3 report. We do not expect to see signs of a notable recovery in the market, but neither do we expect further deterioration. We even think the comparison numbers in the domestic operations should get easy enough to see some sales growth in H2. However, the international operations remain a key risk, in our view, and we cannot rule out a potential downgrade in the guidance range.”
“Valuation not reflecting any recovery scenario; SEB FV at EUR 8-10
Siili is currently trading on a 2025E EV/EBITDA of 5x, which in our view does not price in any recovery scenario. Our fair equity value range remains unchanged at EUR 8-10 per share and our estimates are based on a gradual recovery with sales growth at 5% for 2026E and 8% for 2027E. Our valuation is based on a DCF outcome of EUR 10 and a peer-benchmarked 2025E EBITDA multiple of 8x.”
The threat of an earnings warning, especially regarding revenue, is looming, but at least it hasn’t materialized yet. Last year, Siili issued an earnings warning as early as September 17th, so apparently, they have stayed closer to the guidance than last year. Of course, last year’s earnings warning was quite ugly all at once.
If the guidance is met and close to Inderes’ and SEB’s forecasts, Siili seems quite affordably priced when considering the P/E ratio adjusted for goodwill write-offs and one-off costs (8.3 this year according to Inderes’ forecasts).
9 Likes
It’s giving me heartburn to be invested in Siili. When will signs of a better market appear? I’ve been invested in the stock for almost 10 years, and we’re in the red. However, I have diversified my purchases over time, fortunately…
What would a recovery require? Public savings have been significant from the current government, but the private sector hasn’t been splashing cash either. Will the next left-wing government bring growth money to the table and will IT investments start growing again? Who knows, my patience is sufficient for now, but it’s starting to be tested.
At least the management has made small purchases during this price drop, but in my opinion, even those have remained at merely symbolic levels.
3 Likes
If so, will Siili get enough share of it, and if so, will anything be left for the shareholders? Indeed.