Very good. Could you briefly tell me if the test was successful?
May Day reading, nothing special
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Quarterly report on May 8th, so we should get the latest updates
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Up day. The owner doesn’t need to squeeze too hard. Earnings report tomorrow.
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Apparently, a local distributor can be found here
The facade lists five star individuals for pest control
insta
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Yesterday, an interview on WGN720 / Chicago radio channel
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While the discussion is still calm, at least for now, as the company hasn’t really hit anyone’s radar after years of silence, I’ll quote from the press release posted yesterday by @timontti:
" As with other exclusive international distributors, the agreement with AJM incorporates a substantial initial order and annual minimum purchases to maintain exclusivity. This brings our total number of international distribution agreements to eleven."
It certainly sounds good that each exclusive distribution agreement includes a “substantial” initial order and an annual minimum purchase obligation.
Sales are still in their infancy, but if even a few of these international distributors have a similar agreement, and the product actually works (meaning contracts start being written furiously, like a reindeer herder churning out compensation claims), this might already be comfortably nestled in the catapult’s bucket.
As a counterpoint, it must be noted that the 10 previous international sales agreements have not, at least so far, materialized into particularly significant sales figures.
I’m interested to hear today (or perhaps tomorrow morning, as old folks go to bed before the 10 PM news) after the US stock market closes, whether sales have slowly started to accumulate.
However, a press release just before an earnings announcement always smells a bit like propping up the stock price, especially when it’s known that no particularly good news is coming (at least not yet).
I’m in this, hoping for the best, not expecting too much (at least not until customer testimonials sing the good news in chorus).
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Small excerpts from the call transcript:
- San Francisco has also started
- Los Angeles etc. coming
- municipal sector and eCommerce (Amazon) strongest drivers
- brick&mortar a bit slow with Walmart because they first see how the product works (online)
- ACE Hardware distribution centers have, however, started ordering the product for their stores (this was also featured on WGN720)
- 11 international agreements, many still awaiting launch
- already launched international projects will bring new orders in the future
- moved to new facilities in Phoenix, which provide capacity for 5+ years
- cost savings will start to show from Q2 onwards; the estimate is still that $1.5M in sales per quarter is needed for break-even
- Joel estimates that a few municipal orders and growing eCommerce would be enough for this (I assume this means larger orders after pilot testing), so there is uncertainty and it will likely take 6-8 months from the start for results to be clear. Well, the company has previously said it expects to break even by the first half of next year.
- Chicago early signs positive (nothing new here)
There wasn’t really anything special here. Growth needs to accelerate significantly from this point, but several city tests have only just begun and new ones are coming in big places… I currently think that if the product is effective (groundbreaking), this case will still progress. By 2026/H1, we will be wiser about what cities will do. We’ll see.
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This product is at least easy to copy (or even make at home). Why aren’t sausages fried for rats in every house in India from unrefined cottonseed oil and spices? So, no effect has been found centuries ago…
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I found something when I realized the trade name for crude cottonseed oil. CCSO. The link even has a recipe for the bait, and not so encouraging data, even though measurable physiological changes were found in rats.
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09712119.2012.738230#d1e281
Effect of crude cottonseed oil containing gossypol on fertility of male and estrous cycle of female Bandicota bengalensis Gray and Hardwicke
Abstract
Crude cottonseed oil (CCSO) containing 0.01% gossypol was evaluated in the present studies to record its effect on fertility of male and estrous cycle of female lesser bandicoot rat, Bandicota bengalensis Gray and Hardwicke. Laboratory feeding of bait (cracked wheat and powdered sugar in 98:2) containing 5 and 10% CCSO to female B. bengalensis for 13 days in no-choice feeding test, had no significant effect on the duration of the estrous cycle. However, laboratory feeding of bait containing 10% CCSO to male B. bengalensis for 15 and 30 days duration in a no-choice feeding test, significantly (P≤0.05) reduced sperm motility (%) and viability (%) in cauda epididymal fluid of treated rats compared to untreated ones. The weight of seminal vesicles of rats treated for 30 days was found to be significantly less (P≤0.05) than that for rats treated for 15 days. No significant effect of treatment was observed on the breeding success of rats, diameter of seminiferous tubules, cell count and association of various germ cells in testis. Further studies may be conducted by increasing the duration of treatment or by using CCSO containing a higher concentration of gossypol.
It could be that SenesTech has found a cotton variety whose oil contains enough gossypol to produce results. Or a longer treatment period changed the outcome. Who knows? The study’s authors also suggested trying both.
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From an investor’s perspective, Evolve is a frighteningly simple product. IMHO, far too simple. My understanding is that they can sell freely in the US because unrefined oil is used in cosmetics. Meaning the carrier oil for the active ingredient can be bought freely. And cheaply. No wonder the sales margin has been high when all that’s needed is oil in barrels, some filler, a good spice blend, and perhaps some preservative.
Evolve might take off, but it might be wise to keep your hand on the ejector seat handle.
This is therefore a humble, non-chemist’s opinion, and I am likely wrong.
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It’s worth reading through the first couple from there if the science behind this interests you
https://worldwide.espacenet.com/patent/search?q=senestech
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Thanks for the links.
By the way,
On the bottle of Contrapest liquid, several different poisons are listed as active ingredients.
On the bag of Evolve sausage, only Cottonseed oil is listed as an active ingredient.
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The pilot program has garnered positive feedback from the community, with residents appreciating the shift toward a more humane and sustainable method of rodent control. The success of this initiative has sparked interest in other Chicago neighborhoods, such as Lincoln Park, which plans to implement a similar program this summer .
As the program progresses, ongoing monitoring and community engagement will be crucial in assessing its effectiveness and scalability. If successful, Chicago’s rat birth control initiative could serve as a model for other urban centers grappling with similar challenges.
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I didn’t find much history in this thread, so I dug a bit and found that the company was originally founded by two women in 2004 who are no longer involved with the company.
Mayer & Dyer were ousted/resigned in 2019.
An interesting profile of Mayer can be found, which also talks about the founding of snes.
Executive Profile: Loretta Mayer - Pest Control Technology
I only found this about Dyer.
No more detailed history this time, I’ll retreat back into the shadows.
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e-commerce:
shelf-life became clear:
experiences from Chicago, consumption is good:
NYC:
others:
a couple of international highlights, others were also mentioned in the stream:
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Looks like things are going well!
Still a bit of a way to cash flow positivity, though. But the steps seem to be in pretty good shape now.
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Something caught my eye, namely that SNES has received the largest order in the company’s history from Bradley Caldwell Inc.. The size is not known, however. A persistent seller around the $2.84-$2.91 mark on the sell side was also broken after a month of trying. The trading volume is still, however, some tens of thousands of shares per day.
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Pelataanko Nintendoa?
Snesille iso diili
BCI’s initial order represents the largest distributor stocking order the Company has received.
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