I have been considering buying UPM since I owned it in 2020.
Could someone briefly summarize where the company stands right now?
Regarding the current purchase price, I’m wondering if the current share price is justified?
What is the reason that the share is 30 percent lower than a year ago?
Is a dividend cut coming?
Of course, I could find all the answers by going through the earnings reports, but if someone would like to tell me, since you know the answers anyway 
Factories idled in Finland – The reason lies in China | Tekniikka&Talous
Weak demand from China, the strengthening of the euro against the dollar, and US tariffs on pulp imported from Europe. I would argue that the current price is justified.
I cannot comment on UPM’s current valuation, but in my opinion, the company’s future is actually a bit concerning. The paper business naturally isn’t growing anywhere, and its purpose would be to finance future growth prospects. What are these future sectors then? UPM is closing its biomedicals business this September; it has not proven to be commercially viable. The Rotterdam project was also canceled. In practice, a lot now depends on Leuna and ex-Raflatac. It is not, in my opinion, a completely excluded thought that in 10 years, UPM will practically be a South American pulp mill that makes paper and produces energy in Finland.
I don’t know, UPM is a good company, and if the world is a bit tilted from UPM’s perspective, I don’t think this will last forever. I invested through Alexandria in a UPM structured product. I’m not sure how the price will behave in the short term. So I bet that UPM’s share price will be, in 4-month review periods, at some point over a 7-year timeframe, better than -30%, considering dividends.
Fresh answers to these and other questions presented here are probably generally hoped for from the analyst and the company itself, thanks in advance for them 
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Future prospects and new strategic actions are of great interest as the paper business is struggling; a dividend cut would naturally give a significant extra push to the stock’s decline.
The board is not so easy to read as several companies’ matters are discussed here, but I’ll manage with that.
It’s easy to construct a well-reasoned gloomy scenario for the future of UPM and other forest companies. But also exactly the opposite, a sunny one.
The gloomy one. Political risks are elevated in the US markets, with trade war threats in every direction. Europe just hasn’t gotten moving yet, and Russia’s aggression could still worsen. The Chinese market is also stagnant. Yet, wood prices in the Nordics are at their peak. Etc. The chronicization of the current problems in the forest industry is now a big danger. UPM’s dividend will see cuts if positive change doesn’t start to emerge.
On the other hand, how do we know if soon there will be peace in Europe and the industry’s main market area will get a big boost from it. A reduction in Trump’s bluster and a calming of trade wars could start to pull up not only China, the main market for pulp, but also the entire global economy. In this situation, UPM, which is generally in excellent condition, could be among the big winners. As an added bonus, Leuna’s success and the possibilities of replicating its model could bring a touch of growth company multiples to the firm’s share price.
UPM’s prospects have indeed weakened a bit. Biocomposites shut down, Biomedicals is shutting down, and Biofuels isn’t scaling properly, as investing in Rotterdam didn’t turn out to be worthwhile. Biochemicals is at least opening in Leuna, but with heavy budget overruns. Hopefully, it bears fruit and brings profits.
UPM Communications is steadily declining, and its ability to finance future growth initiatives is inevitably decreasing. Pulp will be the source of cash flow in the future. Below are CP sales and EBITDA since 2012. Efficiency measures have kept profitability good, but eventually cash flow will also decrease as sales become so small over the next 10 years.
The article lists why UPM’s stock is struggling, but these reasons apply, where applicable, to all companies in the sector:
-Low demand for products
-China demands (pulp) price reductions
-Due to the trade war, goods flows have shifted to Europe, thus intensifying competition
-Wood price
-Low value of the dollar
Additionally, in Umpin’s case, one could mention the not-so-high energy price.
Overall, it is possible that earnings forecasts will be lowered.
OP has published a rather extensive report on UPM. Target price 29 and buy recommendation. Emphasis is placed particularly on long-term cash flow generation capability, but short-term expectations are weak/moderate. The report has calculated the values of almost all business operations using a sum-of-the-parts method, which is also an interesting section. The report’s title: “The best buying opportunity of the current decade.”
The same tune has been sung for at least 3 years now, and the essential content is always the same: short-term challenges and things should get better next year. Well, that ‘next year’ always shifts forward by a year. Perhaps this will still dip below €20, but I’ll stay in for now. By no means would I make it one of the largest holdings in my portfolio at these price levels.
For those investing in long-term growth and collecting dividends while waiting:
"OP analyst Henri Parkkinen justifies his buy recommendation with long-term prospects. According to him, the company is financially sound and, if it wishes, can distribute profits through dividends and share buybacks.
Even though the short-term market situation is poor, UPM certainly has the prerequisites for significantly better earnings development, he says. OP’s Parkkinen states that he expects UPM’s dividend payments to continue in the coming years as well."
Metsä Board Corporation Stock Exchange Release Inside Information 7 July 2025 at 9:30 a.m.
Metsä Board, which is part of Metsä Group, estimated in its interim report for January–March 2025, published on 29 April 2025, that the company’s comparable operating result for April–June 2025 would be weaker than in January–March 2025. The comparable operating result for January–March 2025 was EUR 23 million.
Metsä Board’s comparable operating result for April–June 2025 is estimated to be approximately EUR -25 million, which is significantly weaker than the company’s previous estimate.
The negative comparable operating result was particularly affected by the weak demand for market pulp in both Europe and China. Uncertainty caused by US import duties has negatively impacted the purchasing behavior of board customers. As a result, Metsä Board has adjusted its board production to match demand more aggressively than previously planned. Total board delivery volumes in April–June also decreased slightly from the previous quarter.
Metsä Board will publish its half-year financial report for January–June 2025 on 31 July 2025 at 12:00 p.m.
METSÄ BOARD CORPORATION
Here are Kaisa’s comments on Metsä Board’s negative profit warning.
Hannu Angervuo has written about the problems of forest companies; the article takes about five minutes to read.
Subheadings:
China as the largest pulp buyer has dropped pulp prices
What are the problems of forest companies caused by?
Capacity and the dollar exchange rate are key
Greenfield investments still in Finland’s forest industry. According to MT, 200 million euros. Great news, if it were to happen.
Billerud started the Nordic forest companies’ earnings season this morning with a Via Dolorosa. The report was available here. Billerud’s revenue decreased by 5% and adjusted EBITDA by 9% in Q2. Both figures fell quite clearly short of the optimistic-looking Bloomberg consensus. Business in North America (mainly paper business) performed excellently, but the European board markets were, less surprisingly, difficult. As a positive note, Billerud mentioned that wood prices (presumably referring mainly to Sweden) had recently turned to a slight decline.
Stora Enso will publish its Q2 report on Wednesday, and here are Antti’s preliminary comments on it.
We reiterate our target price for Stora Enso at EUR 9.00 and lower our recommendation for the company to Reduce (previously Add). In our opinion, the planned demerger improves Stora Enso’s investor profile and could further unlock hidden undervaluation in the balance sheet (2025e: P/B 0.7x). However, the near-term outlook for the industrial portfolio has further weakened recently due to indirect effects of the trade war, falling pulp prices, and the strengthening of the EUR/USD exchange rate. This limits enthusiasm to rely on the unlocking of hidden value in the balance sheet, at least before the Q2 report.
”Increased global uncertainty combined with rapid currency exchange rate fluctuations and high raw material prices weighs on our profitability
Here are Viljakainen’s preliminary comments also on UPM’s Q2, which will be published on Thursday.
We reiterate our Add recommendation for UPM and lower our target price to EUR 25.00 (previously EUR 26.00) due to negative forecast changes. The weakening of the pulp markets, the strengthening of the euro, and weak consumer demand in Europe are also impacting UPM, and consensus expectations regarding the company’s near-term earnings performance are, in our estimation, overly optimistic. The stock is not cheap in the short term, but a favorable balance sheet and strong relative competitiveness, in our opinion, support waiting for better times with a positive recommendation. UPM will publish its Q2 report on Thursday.