Quote from @Antti_Viljakainen’s comments: “In our assessment, the clearest risk to the completion of the arrangement has been the stance of the competition authorities from the very beginning, considering the high combined local market shares of the companies. In our opinion, this uncertainty remains as the competition authorities’ processes continue.”
Quote from the EU’s new competition policy guidelines regarding mergers: “some corporate mergers will be approved more easily in the future, even if they increase market concentration in Europe, if they are deemed to strengthen the EU’s strategic competitiveness.”
The merger of the Sappi-UPM (Umppi) paper divisions is an interesting testing ground also in light of the EU’s newly introduced competition policy rules. Previously, these mergers etc. were viewed predominantly from the perspective of the EU internal market, and the approach was strict. But from now on, it will be more global: whether the position of European production is strengthened geostrategically through corporate restructurings. The interesting question is how much the UPM-Sappi setup can be viewed from a geostrategic perspective. My guess is that the European competition authority will treat the arrangement more leniently than under the old rules, but how much more leniently and where that will manifest in practice remains to be seen. Looking forward to it with interest!