Here is Antti’s pre-earnings report on UPM, which will publish its results on Wednesday, April 29. 
UPM may have had a better-than-expected start to the year, driven by the short-fiber pulp markets and high electricity prices in Finland during Q1, but the negative risks to the economy and inflation caused by the war in Iran kept our full-year forecasts marginally lower. The stock is not cheap in the short term (2026e: P/E 17x), even though earnings are expected to return to growth this year from a low level. Consequently, we reiterate our target price of EUR 24.00 and our Reduce recommendation for UPM ahead of the Q1 report.