Clearly better than the worst expectations
Underwriting results
A (temporary?) dent in investment returns. A massive share buyback program of over €300 million. But still needs a closer look.
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Sampo beat @Sauli_Vilen’s forecast regarding operative EPS 
I haven’t had time to look into anything else more deeply yet.
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The operating result is clearly better than even Sauli’s expectations. This is very good!
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Sauli blessed our view
Share price up today?
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I would be very surprised if it doesn’t go up today. Even the guidance was raised.
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According to Yle news, Sampo’s profit collapsed.
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Others are also reporting a similar decline in investment income for Q1. This is because the stock market bottoms conveniently settled right around the last day of Q1, and assets are apparently recorded in the quarterly results according to the last day of the period(?)
Just add more to your portfolio if it crashes; Q2 will conversely show increased investment income. NOTE: This is not investment advice.
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This beat expectations across the board! You can ignore the media headlines about a “collapse.” The consensus was also quite off the mark, as some forgot to account for the Noba write-down, and the miss versus consensus is due to this. Operationally, a very strong performance.
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One must remember here that mainstream media has for a long time often reported on results only in relation to previous ones, rather than in relation to expectations. This was the case during Nokia’s golden era and remains so today. You have to read the financial media for information on consensus and expectations.
So yeah, it did collapse, but the expectation was that it would have collapsed even more.
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Sauli’s preview mentality was correct, but the actual figures hit different spots than assumed in the preview.
Underwriting €368M vs Inderes’ 327 and consensus of 341.
Combined ratio 84.4% vs preview of 85.6%.
Insurance service result €2,363M when preview was 2,273, growth of 8%.
Operational EPS +19% RoEOF 32.5%.
This is not “in line with expectations” but a clear beat that exceeds the upper end of the consensus range. An exceptionally strong operational performance relative to expectations, if investment returns weren’t overshadowing it.
The loss of -€46M obviously looks ugly. But NOBA -€235M and the fixed income portfolio -€156M are changes in market value, not a weakening of the business. Only €482M of NOBA remains and Sampo intends to sell more, meaning this volatility is on its way out.
Buyback program €350M vs anticipated €150M. So more than double, and Sampo is clearly committed to a line of high capital distribution. The lower end of the guidance was raised (€1,525–1,625M underwriting) already in the first quarter of the year, which is an exceptionally strong message from management regarding the performance for the rest of the year. The Danish court case fits within existing reserves and no separate provision will be made for Q2. Topdanmark synergies are being heavily front-loaded: 2026 raised from 55 → €105M, 2027 from 87 → €125M — about €50M of additional potential for the current year from synergies alone, and ahead of schedule at that.
Private customers in the Nordics pulled through with the old formula again: growth +5.7%, the segment’s expense ratio improved to 21.4%, and claims were kept in check. Norway +13%, driven by price increases. Hastings’ combined ratio of 90.3% left me wondering, but the number of contracts +13% YoY provides a good option when pricing eventually turns. The moat as a whole strengthened in light of this report — scale (Topdanmark synergies ahead of schedule), pricing power (Nordics), and conservative reserving practices.
Personally, I’m holding onto my shares tightly and will add if the price drops. Sampo is now a purer insurance company than ever, the moat is strengthening, capital is being returned to owners at a ~5% annual rate, and on top of that comes organic 7–10% EPS growth. This report is one of the best in a long time.
My target price is around €9.85. The reasoning: the guidance raise + front-loading of synergies will push op. EPS for 2026 above the previous Inderes estimate of €0.52, so a P/E of ~18x fits the quality and provides a healthy update. This gives about 5–10% price return potential + ~5% cash yield when capital returns are taken into account. In a compounder story, this is exactly what you pay for. Uncertainty is brought by the final cost impact of the Danish court decision, and although Sampo’s current assessment is that reserves cover it, clarifying the state’s distribution of liability may take time and bring noise in either direction in the interim.
The fluctuation in investment returns is exactly what Sauli rightly warned about. The operational core is in diamond condition, guidance is rising, buybacks are doubling compared to the preview, and synergies are coming in ahead of schedule. If someone is selling today, I’m happy to put my hand under it. 
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The IR blog also features key highlights from the quarter’s development, as well as a few words on the potential impact of the Strait of Hormuz situation on claims inflation and the potential effects of autonomous cars on the insurance market. 
Tammi–maaliskuun 2026 tulos – Q&A - Inderes
Vepu stopped by the office a moment ago, so Lars’s interview will likely be available on inderesTV soon.
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Here is Lars’s interview! =)
Themes:
00:00 CFO Introduction
01:05 Sampo performance
01:40 Claim inflation
03:47 Competition
05:55 Investment results
07:55 Denmark court decision
11:44 Topdanmark synergies
14:10 Buybacks
15:30 Guidance upgrade
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And the Sampo report is fresh out of the oven for some evening reading! Forecasts have edged up slightly, and the earnings growth outlook remains positive. Solid ~10% earnings growth is expected in the coming years. The stock isn’t cheap, but then again, it shouldn’t be.
Btw, I recommend listening to the new CFO’s interview! He provided good background on those themes and did a great job explaining in plain English what that Danish court ruling actually means 
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Thanks for the report. On page 12 of the report, there are some very strange figures for the years 2031 and 2033 on the line “Sampo’s dividend growth%”. If these are not errors, it would be interesting to hear the factors explaining this phenomenon.
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It’s wonderful that someone reads the reports so closely! 
Yes, there was a linking error in the dividend growth rate, but it does not affect the final result. Why does the dividend rise by 47% in 2030? Because in our model for 2026-2029, the dividend is distributed according to the distribution policy at approximately 60% of earnings, and the excess is distributed as share buybacks (total distribution approximately 90% of earnings). From 2030 onwards, our model distributes the full 90% as dividends purely for modeling purposes. For 2026-2029, share buybacks are shown in our DDM calculation on the line “Excess capital on the balance sheet”.
The corrected report is now out! 
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The number of employees at Sampo is constantly growing; isn’t this swimming against the current for finance/insurance companies these days? ..especially if and when AI will be doing more and more of the work in exactly these types of companies?
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The report for Noba, which is also important for Sampo, is out. Growth was felt on practically every line and expectations were exceeded. Or rather, credit losses and credit loss provisions decreased from 3.3% → 2.7% of the loan portfolio, which is of course an excellent thing. The stock is +4% today, though since the beginning of the year it has dragged Sampo down as well, being -30%.
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Ålandsbanken’s assessment of Sampo after the interim report
” Ålandsbanken maintains its positive view on the insurance company Sampo following the company’s first-quarter report, where the operating result from insurance operations was 9 percent better than expected. The combined ratio amounted to 84.4 percent, approximately 100 basis points lower than expected.
At the same time, Sampo launched a new share buyback program of EUR 350 million and is expected to pay a dividend of EUR 0.38 per share. The bank also highlights that the uncertainty surrounding Danish workers’ compensation insurance has already been covered by previous reserves.
Ålandsbanken describes the share as attractively valued with a P/E ratio of 14.7 for 2027 and a dividend yield, including buybacks, of approximately 6 percent.
The bank sees the share as a stable base in a diversified portfolio.”
Source: Finwire
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