At the moment, the release date for GTA VI can probably be estimated quite well. The release date for Borderlands 4 was announced at State of Play, which was for sometime in late September. If I recall correctly, Borderlands’ developer was sold to Take-Two. If I recall correctly, another game from another Take-Two developer was also released in August, I just don’t remember which game. However, these seem to indicate that GTA will come in Q4, as @Akee previously speculated.
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As a small curiosity, from Epic Store’s 2024 Year-in-review article: Alan Wake 2 was Epic Store’s 8th best-selling game in 2024 (or 6th-10th best-selling, if the order is random). The rest of the TOP 10 seems to consist solely of service-model games, which might not necessarily be a surprise for a Fortnite marketplace.
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Not a surprise per se, but Shawn Ashmore’s recent interview reveals that Remedy has apparently also tried to acquire the rights to Quantum Break for themselves. One could imagine that the matter is still somewhat on the table, if a suitable agreement can be reached.
Summary from Reddit:
https://www.reddit.com/r/AlanWake/comments/1ipsfzs/some_info_from_shawn_ashmores_recent_interview/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button
• He met with Sam Lake and Remedy before Covid happened, Sam pitched him a broad strokes version of Alan Wake 2 and said he wanted him to be in it
• At the time, Remedy were trying to acquire the rights to Quantum Break. Sam told Shawn that if they were able to acquire the rights, he would be playing Jack Joyce in Alan Wake 2. He then said that if they were unable to acquire the rights, Shawn would still be in the game as a version version of Jack with a different name.
“it’s the exact same character, because it couldn’t be “Jack Joyce”, but it was like how close can we get, y’know.”
• Tim/Jack was initially going to be a playable character in the main campaign, but as development went on he was relegated to DLC
• Sam has told Shawn about Tims backstory and history, which isn’t fully explained in AW2. Shawn wants to explore Tim’s past more in future projects.
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Alla pääosin Firebreakiin, mutta myös muita Remedyyn liittyviä asioita/uutisia, joita tuli viime viikolla vastaan ja selviteltyä.
Controlin MAC-versio viivästyy (taas)
Controlin Mac-versio viivästyy toistamiseen. Tässä linkki lyhyeen reddit-keskusteluun aiheesta.
CMD:ssä luvattiin 12.2 julkaisu, sitten (viikko pari?) ennen 12.2 siirrettiin 26.2 ja nyt vielä toistamiseen siirretty 12.3.2025.
Päivitetty H1 2025 “Remedy-kalenteri”
Päivitin H1 2025 kalenterin alle, jossa on listattu tapahtumia, jotka saattavat olla tai olla olematta Remedylle merkityksellisiä. Kysymysmerkillä listatut päivät spekulaatiota, muut pitäisi olla vahvistettuja, mutta en kanna vastuuta kalenterin oikeellisuudesta, sijoittajapäivät kannattaa tarkistaa Remedyn omilta sivuilta.
| Pvm | Tapahtuma | Selite/Spekulaatio | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.1.2025 | Control-oikeudet 100% Remedylle | Controlin kaikki julkaisuoikeudet siirtyvät Remedylle ja peli tuottaa jatkossa 100% rojaltia Remedylle (ent. 45%). | ||
| 24.2.2025 | Xbox Indie (ID@Xbox) Showcase | Firebreak-traileri? (Lienee epätodennäköistä, A-AA painotteinen tapahtuma) | ||
| 27.2.-14.3.2025 (?) | Xbox Partner Preview Showcase | Firebreakin preorder/gameplay traileri? Viime vuoden H1 Xbox partner preview oli 6.3.2024 (± 1vko 2025?) | ||
| 10.-14.3.2025 | Remedyn 2024 vuosikertomus | Yleensä jotain mielenkiintoista nippelitietoa löytyy (esim. stagegate-malli, työntekijäretentio, päivitettyjä myynti/tavoitettavuusmilestoneja jne) | ||
| 12.3.2025 | Control: UE julkaistaan Macille | Ellei taas viivästy… Todennäköisesti vähintään lukittu content avataan kaikille alustoille (PS-ekslusiivinen side mission + preorderkosmetiikkaa) | ||
| 2.4.2025 | Nintendo Switch Direct | Jos rauta ja/tai upscaling softat riittävän hyviä, mahdollisuus Control/Alan Wake 2 julkaisulle? | ||
| 10.4.2025 | Remedyn yhtiökokous | Pullaa ja kahvia (?) | ||
| 30.4.2025 | Remedy Q1/25 | Alan Wake 2 rojaltit ensimmäsieltä täydeltä kvartaalilta? | ||
| 3-6/2025 (?) | Playstation Showcase/State of Play | Firebreakin preorder/gameplay traileri? Epävarmaa tuleeko tällaista. 2023 oli useampi eventti pelkästään H1, 2024 koko vuonna vain 2 tapahtumaa. | ||
| 4-6/2025 (?) | Switch 2 julkaisu | Jos rauta ja/tai upscaling softat riittävän hyviä, mahdollisuus Control & Alan Wake 2 julkaisulle? | ||
| 6.6.2025 | Summer Game Fest | Firebreak (launch?) traileria, jos peli ei vielä launchannut? Ensimmäinen Max Payne Remake traileri? |
2025 Co-Op PvE Julkaisut - Firebreakin kilpailuympäristö
Kolmantena asiana pyysin tekoälyä listaamaan vuoden 2025 co-op PvE pelit PC/konsolille, joilla vahvistetut sekä vahvistamattomat release datet. Otin pois 2 pelaajan co-opit. Lisäsin manuaalisesti Steamin wishlistaaussijat, followerit ja top sellers sijat poimittu SteamDB ja arvio wishlistaajien määrästä Gamalytic.
Killing Floor 3 closed beta saanut murskapalautetta, ja siten saattaa olla, että peli viivästyy (oma spekulaatio, ei mitään virallista tietoa). Tuossa näkyy tuo huhtikuun lupaava julkaisuikkuna, mutta aika kuluu nopeasti, eikä mitään uutta Firebreakista ole kuultu oikeastaan sitten announce trailerin yli 4kk sitten.
En takaa tai kanna vastuuta taulukkojen paikkaansapitävyydestä, saattaa sisältää tekoälyhallusinointia ja omia virheitä.
>2 player co-op PvE Games 2025 / Confirmed Release Dates
| Game Title | Release Date | Platforms | Top Wishlisted (Steam) | Wishlists (Steam) | Steam Followers | Steam Top Sellers (24.2.25) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monster Hunter: Wilds | February 28, 2025 | PC, PS5, Xbox Series X/S | 1. | 3 300 000 | 357,248 | 1. |
| Killing Floor 3 | March 25, 2025 | PC, PS5, Xbox Series X/S | 25. | 980 100 | 46,875 | 214. |
| Elden Ring Nightreign | May 30, 2025 | PC, PS, Xbox Seires X/S | 4. | 2 200 000 | 105,856 | 63. |
| Borderlands 4 | September 23, 2025 | PS5, PC | 9. | 1 500 000 | 69,731 | Not purchasable yet |
| Double Dragon Revive | October 23, 2025 | PC, Xbox One, Xbox Series X/S, PS5, PS4 | 903. | 36 400 | 2,274 | Not purchasable yet |
2 player co-op PvE Games 2025 / Unconfirmed Release Dates
| Game Title | Release Date | Platforms | Top Wishlisted (Steam) | Wishlists Steam | Steam Followers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dying Light: The Beast | Summer 2025 (NA) | PC, PS4, PS5, Xbox One, Xbox Series X/S | 19. | 1 400 000 | 56,733 |
| Subnautica 2 | 2025 (Early Access) | PC, Xbox Series X/S | 7. | 1 500 000 | 134,080 |
| 33 Immortals | 2025 (Early Access) | PC, Xbox Series X/S | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| FBC: Firebreak | 2025 | PC, PS5, Xbox Series X/S | 686. | 56 100 | 3,454 |
| Sunderfolk | 2025 | PC, Nintendo Switch, PS5, Xbox Series X/S | 933. | 24 600 | 2,661 |
| Primal Planet | 2025 | PC | 1107. | 22 900 | 2,034 |
| Tears of Metal | 2025 | PC | 179. | 198 300 | 9,382 |
| Terminator: Survivors | 2025 | PC, PS5, Xbox Series X/S | 154. | 199 800 | 18,434 |
Firebreakin tavoitettavuus ja B2B diilit
On hyvä muistaa, että Firebreak ei suinkaan ole tulossa kaikille PS+ ja Gamepass tilaajille.
FBC: Firebreak will launch day one on PC Game Pass and Game Pass Ultimate. It also launches day one onto the PlayStation Plus Game Catalog, available for all Extra and Premium members.
Alla olevasta taulukosta voi vähän hahmottaa mitä tämä tarkoittaa. Olen lihavoinut ne tilauspalvelut, joihin Firebreak tulee day 1.
| Subscription | Subscribers | Info date | Source | Additional information | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Game Pass Subscribers | 34.0M | 2/2024 | Xbox Game Pass - Wikipedia | ||
| Game Pass Ultimate | 18.7M | 2/2024 | https://gamerant.com/xbox-game-pass-growth-subscriber-count-2023-report/ | Based on analyst’s (Omndia) estimate of 55% of Gamepass subscribers being on Ultimate-tier | |
| PC Game Pass | ??? | N/A | N/A | ||
| PS+ Essential | 33.3M | 3/2023 | PlayStation Plus subscribers by tier 2023| Statista | ||
| PS+ Extra | 6.1M | 3/2023 | PlayStation Plus subscribers by tier 2023| Statista | ||
| PS+ Premium | 8.0M | 3/2023 | PlayStation Plus subscribers by tier 2023| Statista |
Tästä voimme edelleen arvioida, miten suuri osa markkinoista voidaan tavoittaa streaming-palveluiden kautta.
Tiedetään, että PS5 install-base n. 75M (Eurogamer) kpl ja Xboxin series X/S myyntimääristä on n. 30M arvio (Gamerant)
Tilaajapalveluiden kautta Firebreakin teoreettinen maksimitavoitettavuus on karkeasti 35-40M pelaajaa (~15M PS, ~20-25M Xbox) - Kattaen siis karkeasti noin kolmanneksen nykysukupolven konsoliomsitajista, painottuen kuitenkin voimakkaasti Xboxiin.
PS5
Voimme siis karkeasti arvioida, että PS+ Extra ja Premium (n.15M) kattaa n. 20% PS5-markkinasta.
Xbox
GamePass (Ultimate) kattaa karkeasti 50-60% Xbox series X/S markinasta, jos oletetaan että kaikista GamePass -tilaajista (34M) puolet on Ultimate-tierillä (17M), ja tämän sukupolven Xbox omistajia on se n. 30M.
PC
Emme tiedä PC Game Passin tilaajia, mutta luku on todennäköisesti hyvin pieni - Microsoft ei julkaise lukuja, enkä henkilökohtaisesti tunne ketään PC Gamepassin tilaaja.
Emme myöskään tiedä, montako (aktiivista) PC-pelaajaa on. Steam peak CCU on n. 40M. Viimeisin MAU tieto 132M vuodelta 2021 (Statista). Yksinkertaisuuden vuoksi, vaikka lienee reippaasti alakanttiin oletetaan 150M MAU. Gamepass PC tilaajia jos on muutama miljoona, niin on helppo ymmärtää, että PC Game Pass kattaa vain hyvin pienen osan PC-markkinasta.
Yhteenveto
Suurin osa B2B diiliin rahoituksesta tulee todennäköisesti Xboxilta, kun katsoo tilaajalukuja. Erityisesit Xboxille on mielestäni järkevää mennä B2B-diilillä, kun kuluttajat on koulutettu odottamana alennuksia/tilauspalveluja. “Premium” -alusta PS5:lla on suurin osa markkinasta otettavissa, samoin kuin PC:llä.
Yllä oleva auttaa ehkä hahmottamaan Remedyn minimitavoitetta (100% ROI) Firebreakin osalta. Tavoitteen saavuttaminen tarkoittaisi Remedyn arvioiden mukaan sen 3M myytyä kopiota koko elinkaaren aikana.
Lähde: CMD 11/2024
Joka tapauksessa nyt mielenkiintoiset viikot edessä. Xbox Partner Preview, mikäli sellainen lähiviikkoina järjestetään, kuviottelisi olevan se, missä seuraavaksi Firebreakista jotain kuullaan. Summer Games Festiin on pitkä aika, Firebreak ei ole (nykytiedoin) tulossa Switch 2:lle, ja Sonylla oli äskettäin oma State of Play.
Kävisi myös järkeen yllä oleva tilaajapalveluiden platform-jakauma huomioiden, mikäli Xbox liidaisi ennakkomarkkinointia, ja muiden alustojen markkinointi on säästetään pelin julkaisun tienoille. Firebreakissa on “Crossplay” eli kaverin kanssa voi pelata, vaikka toinen pelaisi pleikkarilla ja toinen PC:llä. Jos peli menestyy Gamepassissa, voisi ajatella, että hype ja rummutus saattaisi levitä kustannustehokkaasti muille alustoille.
Aika näyttää.
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What do you base this on?
I’m not contradicting, but it would be interesting to get additional perspectives on my own thoughts.
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https://x.com/ControlRemedy/status/1894422014963638296?t=9_UYp1G__gG-pE-YGNAHqQ&s=19
We’ll start getting more info about Firebreak on March 20th at the Future Games Show.
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Bluesky link for those who don’t want traffic to X:
https://bsky.app/profile/remedygames.com/post/3lizbdpxass2m
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Inderes expects Firebreak to be released in Q3, but now that the game is apparently being showcased a bit more already in March, it’s hard to see the release stretching until autumn, which is a more competitive time anyway.
A small-budget game certainly doesn’t have such a large marketing budget that it could afford to maintain the hype from now until autumn. More will be known in four weeks.
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At least as recently as 2021, based on Microsoft’s FTC leaks, Remedy was listed on Microsoft’s list as follows:
Top 17 candidates for (M&A) consideration on console & PC" (Gameworldobserver.com)
I won’t directly link the “Confidential” images from the FTC leak here, but the article above contains the leaked Microsoft image in question, which summarizes Remedy (as an M&A target).
It’s amusing to look at the summary of risks estimated in 2021 from today’s perspective:
Risks
- Market cap of €600M EUR
- Next two games tied to Epic Games Store
Neither risk seems to hold true anymore. The market cap has dropped to a third, and Remedy’s upcoming games no longer have any (known) exclusivity ties, nor any reason to assume such ties would be made.
However, the strategic rationale should still hold true:
Strategic rationale
- One of the last remaining independent, AAA narrative-driven game developers
- Existing IP value; healthy community following with Alan Wake and Control, the “Sam Lake-universe”
Of those 17 listed M&A targets, two ended up with Sony (Finnish Housemarque and the more well-known Bungie).
On the other hand, the market today is completely different from 2021, when money was free and the gaming market boomed, fueled by COVID restrictions. The era of acquisitions has transformed into an era of cuts and layoffs, and hardly any major public gaming industry acquisitions have been seen in recent years.
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Case significantly strengthened compared to 2021
- Market cap 600 → 192MEUR
- Successful AW2 launch and PR
- Max Payne / Rockstar project
- Annapurna
- Self-publishing development
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A slight boost in AW2’s average ranking, driven by discounts, this February. Note, however, that sales ranking is quite different from sales, considering seasonal variations, etc.!
The Deluxe version was on discount in the PS Store at the beginning of the month, and now at the end of the month, the standard version and DLC upgrade. All discounts were -50%. Additionally, Alan Wake 2 was (for the first time?) featured in the PS Store’s “Deal of the Week” campaign, which clearly boosted sales at the end of the month.
For example, in the UK, AW2 reached its best sales rankings in 8 months, driven by this, since Night Springs came out with a simultaneous -20% discount.
PS Store US, PS5 Best Selling
PS Store UK, PS5 Best Selling
It’s good to note, however, that -50% discounts have been quite frequent since Black Friday. In practice, as the discount cycle progresses, either discount percentages are lowered or discount campaigns are intensified.
Considering Remedy’s big picture, from now on, from Remedy’s perspective, it is likely more important for Alan Wake 2 in the coming years to increase the awareness of the Alan Wake IP, Remedy’s studio brand, and the RCU, rather than maximizing the ROI from the game with a slightly slower discount rotation. Epic, of course, acts as the game’s publisher.
It doesn’t significantly affect Remedy’s value whether AW2 generates €10-20M more or less in cash flow, compared to gaining new committed RCU fans who will buy upcoming Remedy games at full price on day 1 with an accelerating release schedule. This is considering that Alan Wake 2’s completion rate is clearly higher than the average for AAA games (approx. 40% vs. high 20’s; Source: CMD). A high completion rate might better convert players into new Remedy/Alan Wake fans than a low one, making them willing to buy the next games earlier and at a higher initial price.
It will be interesting to see if Switch 2 or other new ventures come next before we go into deeper discounts than the current 50%. If the game is to be brought to new platforms, it’s difficult to justify a high selling price on one platform if other platforms are already seeing -75% or deeper discounts.
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If a game is wanted on new platforms, then it’s difficult to justify a high selling price on another platform if other platforms are already offering -75% or deeper discounts.
It wouldn’t be uncommon if AW2 were released together with Switch 2. In that case, there would be fewer competing games on the platform, and the game’s price could be lowered later. However, it must be noted that for some households, Switch 2 will be their first game console.
edit. Wild thought: a joint release with Epic, where Control and AW2 are offered for the price of one game. 
Remedy having the publishing rights for Control would at least allow flexibility on Remedy’s part for such a negotiation.
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Now that AW2 has recouped, are additional sales directly gross profit? @Atte_Riikola
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This is how it should practically be. Of course, it’s likely possible that if, for example, Epic makes some new marketing investments, these would then be recouped alongside sales. But in the big picture, future sales and the royalties derived from them should flow into Remedy’s coffers with a high margin.
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There still seem to be enough sellers among the top 100, Aktia’s Mikro Markka is steadily decreasing, last autumn still over 100,000 shares, though I wonder if they are just transferring to another Aktia ownership, Aktia Capital!? The stock hasn’t really generated any returns for anyone in five years, unless we consider the very bottom of the COVID crash. Losses, on the other hand, have probably occurred for many. Opportunity cost must always be taken into account, and I must admit that my own faith is a bit tested here: Osakkeenomistajat - Remedy Investors
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In my opinion, nothing particularly special has happened among the owners in the last 6-7 months.
From memory - may contain errors (assuming a trading price of €15)
- A board member bought 6000 shares in February (~€80k)
- Aktia has moved shares from one fund to another, roughly zero net
- OP completely emptied one small-cap fund, approx. 55k shares (~€0.8M)
- A few small sales from employees/insiders (mostly less than 5% of their ownership).
There is naturally no visibility into nominee-registered shares, but I just checked that the number of nominee-registered shares has dropped since the end of July from approx. 33% to approx. 32.25%, which is approx. 100k shares (~€1.5M)
In other words, roughly and net-wise, small investors have been buying, employees/insiders have shown no significant changes or small sales, and funds and nominee registrations have been reducing. Whose view is correct then - time will tell 
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It has been quiet again for the past few weeks.
This week, however, a few things are already happening:
- 2024 annual report will be published (March 10-14)
- Control’s Mac version will be released (March 12)
- EDIT: As of writing this, Control: UE received a 2.5GB update on Steam… however, no news or patch notes are visible. I checked on PC that the PS5 exclusive mission and all cosmetics are unlocked; nothing else special came up in 15 minutes.
Speculative
- Xbox Partner Preview (if there’s an H1 event at all, it’s likely this week, as it’s unlikely to be in the same week as GDC/Future Games Show)
Other
- Killing Floor 3’s release is postponed to an unspecified later date in 2025. Originally, the release would have been March 25, 2025. With this, the period from early April to the first week of May would be a perfect release window for Firebreak, as the next session-based co-op PvE game, Elden Ring Nightreign, would only be released on May 30. I might not consider this the most likely release date with current information, but it’s within the realm of possibility. But the release date will surely become clear at the Future Games Show in just over a week. However, if the release were only in Q3 2025, this would complicate Firebreak’s position, as the (session-based) co-op PvE competition intensifies as the year progresses, with titles like Elden Ring Nightreign, Dying Light: The Beast, Borderlands 4, and of course Killing Floor 3, to name a few.
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Below is the official confirmation.
The update already shows one practical advantage of self-publishing: cross-marketing. Neither 505 nor any other traditional publisher has an interest in promoting Remedy’s product portfolio, which is funded by others. A visible, but not too intrusive, extra field in the main menu is also, in my opinion, the right way to cross-market, compared to mandatory extra launchers or registrations that players hate. I like it.
The same topic was also discussed in CMD. A traditional publisher’s interest is to maximize the ROI of the publisher’s release portfolio, not Remedy’s individual products or Remedy’s product portfolio. Hopefully, we will continue to see RCU cross-marketing in the future.
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Remedy’s Annual Report Published:
Here’s a good summary of Remedy game budgets and average staff salaries.
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I read the annual report and it was indeed an informative and stylish package! Even if one hadn’t closely followed Remedy’s story, it offers an excellent summary of the past couple of years’ events! 
I own shares.
One thing that shone through in the report is a strong “Boomer/Millennial” vibe. I understand that Remedy invests in its own fanbase and historical success, but if the goal is to build a future success story, one would think that the younger generation and 2025-era creativity should be more prominently displayed. In my opinion, innovativeness and its presentation are missing.
There isn’t a single representative of the younger generation on the board or in management, which in my opinion is also reflected in the communication and brand. What will gaming and a strong consumer brand look like for Remedy in 2030? I got the feeling: will anyone under 25 get excited about the games or Remedy’s brand?
What do the rest of you think? I understand the value of a Paradox-type brand, and perhaps Remedy is also seeking more of that Niche market success.
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