The share price drop is justified by AI disruption. I won’t take a stand on how it happens, but as an example, in Ukrainian drones, control is handled by AI in some cases. It could happen as you said, with coding being done with it. In any case, current cars do not have the processing capacity or very advanced displays, display controllers, etc. The hardware is modest. Reliability and safety are important. The threshold for change is quite high.
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Many people find it difficult to understand what Qt does and how AI will impact the company.
Would this be a good explanation? Correct me if I’m off track.
Let’s say I’m making menu screens for a TV. It has buttons.
If I were to code this manually, it would require a huge amount of work.
With Qt, I just drag the buttons I want into place and then code what those buttons actually do.
Later, when the processor changes for the next TV model, I don’t have to recode everything from scratch for the hardware; instead, Qt handles that transition for me. Qt takes care of the visual side.
(Note! I’m simplifying. Qt is much more than this)
Example:
I can draw the Finnish flag in Paint. Paint converts it into ones and zeros in the background.
I could also directly save ones and zeros in a format that forms the Finnish flag. It’s difficult, but possible.
The impact of AI:
Nowadays, I don’t need to draw the flag in Paint. I just ask an AI to draw one for me.
Similarly, I tell the AI to create a menu for me. I just describe what I want the menu to look like.
The risk is that I might not understand all the code, and bugs could appear in the final product.
(Note! Not yet, but certainly in the future)
Manufacturers of critical devices are unlikely to want to take this risk.
If I’m making a coffee machine—especially a cheap one—I probably won’t want to pay for Qt.
Then there is another AI impact that comes to mind:
The cost of a coding project decreases. Therefore, Qt’s share of the total project cost increases → there is pressure to lower prices.
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Qt doesn’t sell drones or any other hardware. Qt’s product is a programming tool, and customers pay for developer and distribution licenses when the tool is used to write code. The threat to Qt is therefore not the emergence of some competing AI system. The threat to Qt is that because of AI, fewer developers will be needed, so fewer developer licenses will be sold.
I personally believe that in the short term, this is exactly what will happen. In the longer term, I believe that when customers can complete projects with fewer developers, instead of putting the saved cash under the mattress, they will invest it by starting more projects. More projects, more developers. This is how it has always been in the software industry; as productivity increases, the demand for labor has not decreased but grown.
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Here is a coffee machine example. It’s hardly worth it for the manufacturer to start building a user interface from scratch with AI themselves. It seems that with a license, you get hundreds of customer customizations, testing, and updates sorted out more cheaply.
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Good post, and I’ll also add that as efficiency improves, the number of use cases also increases, which may lead to a larger TAM.
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Looks like the pipeline is leaking, but still no analyses about how to correct it.
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For example, Salesforce has already introduced the “Agentforce model,” where billing is based on completed tasks. Qt is in an exceptionally good position in this race because they already have the infrastructure for a distribution license model in place.
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On Qt Group’s shareholder list, recent purchases can be found from at least Danske Invest and Cologny Advisors LLP.
The latter’s investment strategy is interesting: the company utilizes a fundamental analysis-based “stock picking” method, meaning it aims to identify individual undervalued stocks through in-depth research.
Former management team member Tuukka Turunen also added 1,000 shares.
It looks like the bottom for Qt Group is now behind us!
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Antti released the Q1 preview comments today and we also launched a prediction contest for the community, where the most accurate predictors can win a year of Premium! 
You can participate in the contest on the Qt company page under the Investor Consensus section. 
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Let’s wake up this thread for the Q1 earnings release on Wednesday, May 13th. There will also be a live earnings results stream: Qt Q1'26 -tuloslive ke 13.5. klo 12:55 - Inderes
The number of larger short positions currently appears to be 9.87%, plus, of course, those positions under 0.5% that we cannot see because the Financial Supervisory Authority (Finanssivalvonta) does not disclose them: Voimassa olevat lyhyet positiot - Lyhyiden positioiden ilmoittaminen - www.finanssivalvonta.fi
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Tomorrow, the results need to hit the top line or we’re going to hit the ground immediately. Based on the CEO’s previous statements.
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I bet there will be a top-line miss, a bottom-line miss, soft guidance, and the share price will be -10%.
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The company has set the targets so low now that there’s definitely a chance for an beat!
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You should post your guess here as well. Just a reminder for everyone else too.
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On the edge of my seat here — in my opinion, so much negativity is already priced into the stock that even a “no news is good news” type of result could boost the valuation. However, knowing the history, we could also see soft numbers followed by another sharp, multi-day downward spiral. It’s quite a lottery ticket these days, but so be it … I guess one can pay a little for the sake of a hobby.
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What is the reason behind that jump in recurring revenue?
Q4 recurring revenue was €127m; a jump like that would require a miracle. Otherwise, the results are the usual Qt-crap.
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I assume it’s the IAR SaaS transformation. In other words, a large number of IAR customer contracts expired at the turn of the year, after which they are billed differently, and the previous method was not counted as recurring revenue (ARR).
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I don’t think organic growth was reported, or did anyone else spot it? In Q4, revenue growth was reported excluding the impact of acquisitions.
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