I made a ChatGPT-assisted hindsight analysis of Pyn Elite’s actions from 2018 onwards. The top 10 holdings from the end of 2018, 2020, 2021, and 2023 were found in the investor letters. I calculated estimates for NAV values if Pyn Elite’s portfolio had been frozen at those moments, taking into account the impact of currency rate changes and dividends.
Pyn Elite realized NAV today 525e
NAV of the portfolio frozen on Dec 31, 2018, today 500-550 e
NAV of the portfolio frozen on Dec 31, 2020, today 560-600e
NAV of the portfolio frozen on Dec 31, 2021, today 720-770e
NAV of the portfolio frozen on Dec 31, 2023, today 580-660e (the rocketed Vinhomes sold off already before this)
ChatGPT’s conclusions
“Deryng is good at finding undervalued companies, but potentially too eager to switch to the next idea.”
“Deryng’s active stock selection and rotation created significant value from 2018 to 2021, but after 2021 he seems to have continued rotation in a situation where the portfolio he already owned was exceptionally good.”
"Pyn’s process might have a cycle like this
1. Find a heavily undervalued company.
2. Take a large position.
3. Fundamentals develop as expected.
4. The share price rises.
5. P/E is no longer extremely low.
6. Sell and move the money to the next “100% upside” case.
7. Let go of an exceptionally good compounder too early."