The webcast revealed that only 10% of bids were won in France, meaning that the deals won have not come through aggressive pricing. They had assumed that growth there would be even stronger. Apparently, in property insurance, the insurance company AXA has significantly lowered its prices compared to the 2025 situation. There are also difficulties regarding growth in Sweden and the UK; i.e., the market is softening and prices are coming down. In contrast, there is strong growth in Denmark and Norway, though they are smaller markets.
I believe the share price reaction is driven by the tightened competitive situation in the largest markets (UK and Sweden) and the information regarding the competitive situation in French property insurance.
Below are the updated 2026 bear, base, and bull scenario calculations.
The base case growth assumption of 20% may seem high, but in practice, 7.7 percentage points are already secured (contracts made in Q1 correspond to about a third of the contract portfolio and Jan 1st gross written premium growth was 25%) from the Jan 1st growth alone, so “only” 17.7% growth is needed for the rest of the year. Additionally, the decrease in the reinsurance level boosts net earned premium/revenue growth, which is reflected in the top line of the income statement.
Regarding the combined ratio, I made an assumption in the base case that France triples its size by 2026 and the CR drops to 110%, with the loss ratio falling to around 90% and the cost ratio to around 20%. Otherwise, the same CR level as in 2025 is assumed.
I calculated AUMs simplistically as Dec 31, 2025 values +10%, reflecting the year’s average AUM. 2025 AUM grew by approx. 20% driven by business growth and investment returns. AUM growth largely goes hand-in-hand with business growth, and that is also the current default assumption.
For bond yields, I assume the same 5% as in 2025, as the yield was 4.9% on Dec 31, 2025. Equity returns fluctuate the most, and a 10% base assumption for the current year might be overly optimistic considering last year’s rally (Protector’s CAGR 12%). With that 10% assumption, the EPS impact of equity returns is approx. +4 NOK vs. 0% return.
I raised the acceptable fP/E in the base case to 18. The justifications are an excellent 5-year track record (quality), a good outlook for the fixed income markets, and a clear growth path.
| 2026 bear | 2026 base | 2026 bull | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Insurance revenue growth | 17.5% | 20.0% | 22.5% |
| Insurance revenue (mNOK) | 16,568 kr | 16,920 kr | 17,273 kr |
| Combined ratio | 86% | 85% | 84% |
| Insurance service result (mNOK) | 2,319 kr | 2,538 kr | 2,764 kr |
| Average AUM bonds (mNOK) | 23,772 kr | 23,772 kr | 23,772 kr |
| Average AUM equities (mNOK) | 4,762 kr | 4,762 kr | 4,762 kr |
| Bond yield (no valuation changes) | 5% | 5% | 5% |
| Stock return | 8% | 10% | 12% |
| Investment result (mNOK) | 1,570 kr | 1,665 kr | 1,760 kr |
| Other expenses and insurance finance expenses (mNOK) | −550 kr | −550 kr | −550 kr |
| Taxes 23% | −768 kr | −840 kr | −914 kr |
| Net income (mNOK) | 2,571 kr | 2,813 kr | 3,060 kr |
| EPS | 31 kr | 34 kr | 37 kr |
| P/E | 16 | 18 | 20 |
| Mcap (mNOK) | 41,137 kr | 50,628 kr | 61,194 kr |
| TP | 499 kr | 614 kr | 743 kr |