Co-determination negotiations initiated, probable layoffs.
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Here are Aapeli’s thoughts on Ponsse’s upcoming change negotiations.
The company announced it would initiate change negotiations concerning almost all of its Finnish personnel regarding potential layoff needs for next year due to the weakened market situation. The change negotiations did not come as a significant surprise, considering the rapidly darkening news flow from the domestic forest sector during the autumn and the overall picture from Ponsse’s Q3 report. The news has no immediate impact on our forecasts or our view of the company.
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Above is something about John Deere’s results, if anyone in this thread is interested. 
Reportedly, the forest machine side grew strongly, and the company expects it to remain stable next year.
The construction and forest sectors seem and seemed to hold their own, even though Deere’s agricultural side faltered.
The forest machine market doesn’t seem to be freezing up too badly, demand is still steady, and apparently, the outlooks of Deere’s competitors also support this. 
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Here are more proper comments from Aapeli on Deere’s results.
Deere, the world’s leading manufacturer of agricultural and forestry machinery, published its Q4 report yesterday and at the same time took a stand on its market outlook for fiscal year 2026. The company expects the global forestry machinery market to remain stable compared to fiscal year 2025, while the European agricultural machinery market is expected to remain stable or grow slightly. Thus, for domestic peers, Ponsse and Kesla, it is still difficult to see significant signs of improvement in the market.
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This might be related to some Brazilian contract. I heard a rumor that they made a big deal for a large pulp mill in Brazil. If that delivery includes, say, 200 machines, it would significantly impact one year. The market is so sluggish that I would believe this is about one such large delivery that makes operations look good. Ponsse, if I recall correctly, has a 160-machine full-service operation in Brazil, so compared to that, a package of 200 machines is not impossible.
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Here are Aapeli’s preview comments as Ponsse reports its Q4 results on Tuesday.
We expect the company’s revenue and earnings to have declined from the comparison period, in line with the depressed order backlog. The main areas of interest in the report are the guidance for the current year and management’s comments on the market outlook.
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October–December:
- Revenue was EUR 219.5 (223.5) million
- Operating profit was EUR 11.4 (17.6) million and the operating profit margin was 5.2 (7.9)%
January–December:
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Revenue was EUR 749.9 (750.4) million
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Operating profit was EUR 41.6 (36.8) million and the operating profit margin was 5.6 (4.9)%
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Profit for the period was EUR 30.5 (12.5) million
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Earnings per share were EUR 1.09 (0.45)
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Order backlog was EUR 141.4 (188.6) million at the end of the review period
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Cash flow from operating activities was EUR 23.3 (85.0) million
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Equity ratio was 59.5 (58.7) percent at the end of the review period
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The Board’s dividend proposal is EUR 0.55 (0.50) per share
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The company’s operating profit in euros is estimated to be at the same level in 2026 as in 2025 (EUR 41.6 million).
The market situation remained challenging throughout the year. In the final quarter of the year, however, the order flow was reasonable considering the situation, and orders received were approximately EUR 197.7 (213.0) million. The company’s order backlog was EUR 141.4 (188.6) million at the end of the review period.
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The market is challenging. The company has excellent products and a lot of potential. I guess we’re taking another hit today.
It might be a year or two before the results start to improve.
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Link to the robo-comment
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Aapeli has released a new company report on Ponsse following the Q4 results
Ponsse’s Q4 result fell slightly short of our expectations despite the brisk revenue growth. Guidance for the current year, on the other hand, turned out to be a clear disappointment compared to our expectations. This is driven by the low order backlog, which appears to pose challenges at least for performance in the early part of the year. Reflecting the overall picture, we have clearly lowered our forecasts. We view the stock’s valuation as expensive for this year, while neutral when looking further ahead. Reflecting this, we reiterate our Reduce recommendation for the stock, but lower our target price to EUR 24.0 (prev. EUR 25.0).
Quote from the report:
Forecasts continued on a downward trend
Reflecting the market situation that remains uncertain, we slightly lowered our order forecasts, but we still expect orders to return to growth from Q2’26 onwards. Reflecting the guidance and the order backlog that fell to a low level at year-end, we have, however, clearly lowered our revenue forecasts for the early part of the year. In line with the revenue development, our earnings forecasts were also under clear pressure, and reflecting the company’s comments as well, we predict this will be reflected in the results especially in the early part of the year. However, we estimate that tighter cost discipline and the greater benefits of the change in the operating model will support margin development. Reflecting the current situational picture, we also clearly lowered our forecasts for the coming years, where uncertainty is also partly caused by the revenue loss resulting from the termination of the Brazilian contract, even though it is unprofitable. The underlying drivers for long-term forecasts remain unchanged, and they have been discussed in more detail in our comprehensive report.
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Here are Aapeli’s preview comments as Ponsse releases its Q1 report on Tuesday, April 21st.
We expect the company’s revenue and earnings to have declined significantly from the comparison period, in line with the decreased order backlog and the comments provided by the company in the Q4 result. In the report, the main points of interest are the development of the order intake and management’s more detailed comments on the market outlook.
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Aapeli has released a new company report following Q1.
Ponsse’s Q1 report was mixed; while order intake and revenue exceeded our expectations, the result fell clearly below our forecasts. On the other hand, we found the company’s market comments to be positive. Ponsse reiterated its guidance pointing to last year’s earnings level, although reaching this will require some catching up due to the performance in the early part of the year. Following the actual development, we made downward revisions to our earnings forecasts for the coming years, but we still expect the company to reach its guidance for the current year. In our view, the stock is currently largely fairly priced in the overall picture; reflecting this, we reiterate our reduce recommendation and our target price of EUR 24.0.
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Let’s post this here as well
PONSSE PLC, STOCK EXCHANGE RELEASE 21 APRIL 2026 AT 9:00 AM
JANUARY–MARCH:
- Order intake was EUR 193.3 (184.5) million.
- Order book was EUR 167.9 (187.7) million at the end of the period.
- Net sales were EUR 166.8 (185.4) million.
- Operating profit was EUR 1.5 (13.2) million and operating profit margin was 0.9 (7.1) percent.
- Profit for the period was EUR 2.5 (14.4) million.
- Earnings per share were EUR 0.09 (0.51).
- Cash flow from operating activities was EUR 7.7 (15.9) million.
- Equity ratio was 62.4 (60.7) percent at the end of the period.
PROFIT GUIDANCE FOR 2026 UNCHANGED
The company’s operating profit in euros is estimated to be at the same level in 2026 as in 2025 (EUR 41.6 million).
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Ponsse’s main competitors, Deere & Co and Komatsu, have both performed significantly better over the last 10 years. On the other hand, as Aapeli defended in today’s video, this isn’t a completely fair comparison, as these companies also have many other business lines. There was also reflection on whether the stock chart would look different if Russia hadn’t invaded Ukraine and if the Brazilian Full Service agreement had never been made.
And it must also be remembered that Ponsse has been paying dividends and performed excellently before this most recent 10-year period. Now, however, some tailwind from a market recovery is needed. If and when the market recovers, the corrective move could initially be very fast and powerful.
More on the subject in the video filmed today:
Ponsse’s share price has been stagnating (mörninyt) for the last 10 years, facing headwinds from both Russia and Brazil. Is the company’s competitiveness still intact, or are the main competitors catching up? Analyst Aapeli Pursimo reflects on this in the video.
Topics:
00:00 Stock stagnating for 10 years
03:20 Are Ponsse’s products still competitive?
08:47 Outlook for the rest of the year
10:43 Market recovery is key
15:21 Valuation at a neutral level
17:09 Is Ponsse still a quality company?
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Here are Aapeli’s preliminary comments ahead of Ponsse’s Q2 results next Tuesday
We expect the company’s revenue and earnings to have increased slightly compared to the comparison period, supported by a brisk order flow early in the year. In the report, our areas of focus are particularly the market outlook, the development of the used machinery inventory, and comments related to the termination of the service agreement in Brazil.
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Here is the company report on Ponsse from Aapeli after Q2
Ponsse’s Q2 report met our expectations quite well in terms of the headline figures, but the result was supported by the reversal of a provision related to the ended service contract in Brazil. Market comments were more cautious than earlier in the year, but the company still reiterated its guidance pointing to stable results. After the first half of the year, the company has some catching up to do, and in our view, achieving the guidance will require successful sales as well as tighter cost control. Despite the risks, we expect the company to achieve its guidance. As the uncertain market situation continues, we have lowered our forecasts for the coming years, reflecting which we are adjusting our target price to 23.0 euros (previously €24.0). Relative to the overall picture, we believe the stock is fully priced, and we reiterate our reduce rating.
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Finnish expertise in forest fire extinguishing received significant attention in Belgium, when the Firefighter system, built on a Ponsse forwarder chassis, was awarded the innovation grand prize at the Démo Forest trade fair held in Bertrix at the end of July.
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Spotted this morning in Kanta-Häme: 19 Ponsses on a train heading south.
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