Co-determination negotiations initiated, probable layoffs.
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Here are Aapeli’s thoughts on Ponsse’s upcoming change negotiations.
The company announced it would initiate change negotiations concerning almost all of its Finnish personnel regarding potential layoff needs for next year due to the weakened market situation. The change negotiations did not come as a significant surprise, considering the rapidly darkening news flow from the domestic forest sector during the autumn and the overall picture from Ponsse’s Q3 report. The news has no immediate impact on our forecasts or our view of the company.
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Above is something about John Deere’s results, if anyone in this thread is interested. 
Reportedly, the forest machine side grew strongly, and the company expects it to remain stable next year.
The construction and forest sectors seem and seemed to hold their own, even though Deere’s agricultural side faltered.
The forest machine market doesn’t seem to be freezing up too badly, demand is still steady, and apparently, the outlooks of Deere’s competitors also support this. 
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Here are more proper comments from Aapeli on Deere’s results.
Deere, the world’s leading manufacturer of agricultural and forestry machinery, published its Q4 report yesterday and at the same time took a stand on its market outlook for fiscal year 2026. The company expects the global forestry machinery market to remain stable compared to fiscal year 2025, while the European agricultural machinery market is expected to remain stable or grow slightly. Thus, for domestic peers, Ponsse and Kesla, it is still difficult to see significant signs of improvement in the market.
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This might be related to some Brazilian contract. I heard a rumor that they made a big deal for a large pulp mill in Brazil. If that delivery includes, say, 200 machines, it would significantly impact one year. The market is so sluggish that I would believe this is about one such large delivery that makes operations look good. Ponsse, if I recall correctly, has a 160-machine full-service operation in Brazil, so compared to that, a package of 200 machines is not impossible.
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Here are Aapeli’s preview comments as Ponsse reports its Q4 results on Tuesday.
We expect the company’s revenue and earnings to have declined from the comparison period, in line with the depressed order backlog. The main areas of interest in the report are the guidance for the current year and management’s comments on the market outlook.
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October–December:
- Revenue was EUR 219.5 (223.5) million
- Operating profit was EUR 11.4 (17.6) million and the operating profit margin was 5.2 (7.9)%
January–December:
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Revenue was EUR 749.9 (750.4) million
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Operating profit was EUR 41.6 (36.8) million and the operating profit margin was 5.6 (4.9)%
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Profit for the period was EUR 30.5 (12.5) million
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Earnings per share were EUR 1.09 (0.45)
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Order backlog was EUR 141.4 (188.6) million at the end of the review period
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Cash flow from operating activities was EUR 23.3 (85.0) million
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Equity ratio was 59.5 (58.7) percent at the end of the review period
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The Board’s dividend proposal is EUR 0.55 (0.50) per share
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The company’s operating profit in euros is estimated to be at the same level in 2026 as in 2025 (EUR 41.6 million).
The market situation remained challenging throughout the year. In the final quarter of the year, however, the order flow was reasonable considering the situation, and orders received were approximately EUR 197.7 (213.0) million. The company’s order backlog was EUR 141.4 (188.6) million at the end of the review period.
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The market is challenging. The company has excellent products and a lot of potential. I guess we’re taking another hit today.
It might be a year or two before the results start to improve.
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Link to the robo-comment
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Aapeli has released a new company report on Ponsse following the Q4 results
Ponsse’s Q4 result fell slightly short of our expectations despite the brisk revenue growth. Guidance for the current year, on the other hand, turned out to be a clear disappointment compared to our expectations. This is driven by the low order backlog, which appears to pose challenges at least for performance in the early part of the year. Reflecting the overall picture, we have clearly lowered our forecasts. We view the stock’s valuation as expensive for this year, while neutral when looking further ahead. Reflecting this, we reiterate our Reduce recommendation for the stock, but lower our target price to EUR 24.0 (prev. EUR 25.0).
Quote from the report:
Forecasts continued on a downward trend
Reflecting the market situation that remains uncertain, we slightly lowered our order forecasts, but we still expect orders to return to growth from Q2’26 onwards. Reflecting the guidance and the order backlog that fell to a low level at year-end, we have, however, clearly lowered our revenue forecasts for the early part of the year. In line with the revenue development, our earnings forecasts were also under clear pressure, and reflecting the company’s comments as well, we predict this will be reflected in the results especially in the early part of the year. However, we estimate that tighter cost discipline and the greater benefits of the change in the operating model will support margin development. Reflecting the current situational picture, we also clearly lowered our forecasts for the coming years, where uncertainty is also partly caused by the revenue loss resulting from the termination of the Brazilian contract, even though it is unprofitable. The underlying drivers for long-term forecasts remain unchanged, and they have been discussed in more detail in our comprehensive report.
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