I thought I’d open a thread like this, where one can attach interesting long-term trend graphs.
For example, in that case, during the last 10 years, there has been a surprisingly stable (logarithmic) trend between stock vs. commodity prices. Rarely does one see such clear periods in time series. I would guess that algorithmic trading has played a part in there being so little fluctuation in that trend, but will it continue in the future or will there be some mean reversion phenomenon?
Here’s an interesting discussion of medium-term trends, if you have an hour to listen. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YR88gGvF6Ng
Hey,
You’ve opened a great thread, and my eyes are almost watering from finding such a discussion starter amidst “Teslas of the Seas” and “Portfolio Returns” forums, and other flame wars. 
Personally, I track fairly short and medium-term (2-10 years) validated and easily understandable trends (global and local), within which I make my own investment decisions. Consumption trends are perhaps the most interesting of these.
That’s enough about that, hopefully others will join the discussion and we can get more insights from many different sources. 
Profitability of the agricultural sector.
The same phenomenon seems to apply all over the world. Last year, data was published from Africa that showed exactly the same trend. I just can’t find the article anymore 
I don’t know if similar surveys have been done in other continents/countries.
https://www.ruokatieto.fi/uutiset/vahittaiskauppa-saa-ruuasta-entista-paremman-katteen
The profitability of the agricultural sector has dropped tremendously.
The following page tells about the relationship between the costs and growth of the agricultural sector, etc. relevant information:
The trend is indeed the same, at least in Europe. The growth factor has collapsed and seems to have stagnated a long time ago. I recall that the growth factor for the last decade was 0.4. Check it yourselves, I can’t find the source at the moment.. Around 2020, the same trend seems to continue.
What is perhaps most alarming here is the entire agricultural sector shifting to negative growth. This is, of course, not possible, but some kind of support systems will be continued, as is already being done.
However, I myself do not believe in such a negative future; instead, the agricultural sector will very likely utilize machine learning and artificial intelligence to drive down production costs from their current already impossible levels.
A change in the long-term trend coming? At least for a moment.
Here are some examples of YTD price changes in commodities. I’m speculating a bit about the revaluation of commodities relative to stocks. For example, copper is soon to reach all-time highs. Agricultural product prices are also rapidly increasing in the futures markets, so perhaps that could also start to reflect in the sector’s profitability?
Should discussions happen in one thread?
There’s also this thread running
That news article from the top Food Information link is from 2000. I don’t think the “Thanks to the Producer” products improved profitability much then 
but it’s still over 20 years ago.
Here’s something a bit more recent on the topic.
https://www.luke.fi/uutinen/maatalouden-kannattavuus-vaatimatonta-2019/
