Last year, valuation multiples for payment companies and fintechs dropped sharply.
Including PayPal, which has taken such a beating.
https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2006497071088685371
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It would be nice if this influenced PayPal’s stock price, as otherwise nothing besides the perceived weakness of branded checkout seems to have any effect. Then again, nothing surprises me anymore at this point, and I suppose we’ll see the price hit around $40, at which point P/FCF will be hovering around six.
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PayPal - I’ve suffered so much because of you. The eternal question: “cheap” or cheap. 
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Personally, I’m reading the stars and thinking a sure entry point is probably somewhere around $40. My common sense tells me it can’t go that low, but if it does, I’ll buy.
I’ll also add that, in theory, the price is good even now, but the sentiment is sour and we’ve been lower before, so I don’t believe this level will hold.
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Institutional ownership has increased (see image)
Language model content, DYOR
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The tweet highlights that PayPal’s new advertising platform utilizes extensive purchasing data to provide businesses with more precise information on consumer behavior; for example, Ulta Beauty achieved significant growth in areas such as sales and brand favorability through its use.
Unlike models based solely on clicks, PayPal’s solution combines the actual purchase transactions of hundreds of millions of users, creating better commercial insight for businesses, etc.
A 20% increase in transaction spend and 136% above-benchmark brand favorability lift doesn’t sound bad at all.
https://x.com/JuanRodrig07/status/2008585886368153749
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The tweet below explains how PayPal and Microsoft are joining forces for Copilot Checkout.
Microsoft’s AI-powered shopping experience integrates with PayPal payments, allowing products to be purchased directly and seamlessly from AI suggestions without separate checkout steps.
https://x.com/JuanRodrig07/status/2009291210859401330
Here is PayPal’s press release on the matter:
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There are many highlights like this, or rather, different valuation multiples or figures are used, but the idea is the same – the stock has plummeted, but the stock has become cheaper and/or revenue has increased.
Then again, when coming up with excellent competitive advantages and moats, you have to explain or come up with a bit more.
https://x.com/qualtrim/status/2012494324445921742
I was playing around with Koyfin again
Of course, there are many variables, and these are a small part of the big picture.
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The idea that it either has to be ridiculously mispriced and the buying opportunity of the century, or a terrible value trap, is in my opinion quite weak thinking from this X user. They’re looking for extremes. You see the same thing in many other areas. In politics especially, decision-makers act childishly stupid in their conclusions when they want to stir up their own, perhaps even quite simple-minded, supporters. Usually, things aren’t black or white, but something in between. The best estimate isn’t as marketable as some rigid opinion from an extreme end, even though it’s more likely to be wrong. Isn’t it possible that in PayPal’s case, it’s just slightly mispriced in either direction, or perhaps even priced exactly right? You won’t find those options on their list, but the correct assessment is likely somewhere in between. Sure, it could hit an extreme, but I think that’s less likely. PayPal is unlikely to be a massive value trap at these prices, but it’s probably not as severely mispriced as, for example, Meta was at its bottom in 2022. However, I lean more toward the slightly undervalued side, and my quick-take target price is $70.
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I agree with that tendency towards polarization. In a way, for all growth companies, a moment eventually arises where the gap between bull/bear scenarios is enormous. However, in PayPal’s case, I find this “double or nothing” narrative quite acceptable because the market leader position, speculative pricing, fundamentals, unique growth drivers, and other smaller factors support it. It would probably be more accurate and intelligent to say that the upside is very good compared to the downside risk?
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