Panoro seems to be trading at around a 500m USD market cap right now. The Brent - WTI spread currently seems to be widening and showing a supply/demand imbalance lurking outside the United States.
I didn’t feel like cranking out an Excel sheet, so I asked ChatGPT how much the company would make with Brent at $100.
P/FCF 2-3?
The basic assumption is probably slightly bullish since the price curve is still downward sloping, though at last glance the August contract was also around 90 USD, so production disruptions are being priced in until the fall. The company has a suitable amount of debt, so the leverage should be pleasing to the shareholder even if the price disruption only lasts for a year.
Somehow it just feels like the stock is a value trap after all. Small market cap and an esoteric exchange. I would be surprised if the stock started performing better than Saturn Oil & Gas or Kosmos, which have practically the same tailwinds as Panoro.
Maybe the stock will start outperforming the others down the line
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