That was a good tweet. Familiar companies as examples. With Nvidia and Cloudflare, I went on a real downward slide in 2022, meaning from a peak into a deep dip. But the deepest dips I took were with Upstart and FuboTV, which I let go of at around the $3 level. If you look at the Inderes thread regarding Cloudflare, I spent quite a bit of time navigating it back in 2022. At one point, I even wrote that I felt like I’d been keelhauled. Regarding Cloudflare, the company improved its performance continuously throughout 2021-2022-2023, but it was painful when the share price just dragged at the $40 level, exactly -80%. I would say that there’s no need to fear the slide. If you are holding a good company. You just have to endure the discomfort. If Palantir is now like Nvidia in 2021, then we will go through a deep dip but eventually even further.
Below is a tweet about Palantir. A summary of the tweet’s message:
Palantir is strongly positioned in AI, which offers a high return for customers and is focused especially on the United States. The company has a 37 percent free cash flow margin. High valuation, but the market expects 30 percent growth in cash flow.
Palantir and Rio Tinto are renewing their contract. And apparently also expanding it at the same time. So AI is even more tightly involved in the destruction of nature 
Palantir seeks a transfer from NYSE to Nasdaq xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
This is truly significant news, because this way Palantir becomes part of one of the world’s most significant and largest ETFs, namely QQQ.
Copilot:
“As of November 2024, the Invesco QQQ ETF has approximately $306 billion in assets under management (AUM). This makes it one of the largest and most significant ETFs in the market.”
For Palantir, everything is falling into place now; business is booming, and as a bonus, the stock is now experiencing ETF buying momentum.
Naturally, this doesn’t affect the fundamentals in any way, so no permanent price reaction should follow from this.
A nearly +10% market reaction to this news is incomprehensible. I’m not surprised at all that Pekka sold his last remaining shares.
If PLTR is added to a major index, larger ETFs will have to buy a certain amount of the stock. As I understand it, it can indeed affect the price to some extent over the longer term.
Fundamentally, a stock’s price is determined by its discounted cash flows to the present day. You can learn more about that here. Inderes Investment School: DCF model (don’t do this at home!)
In the short term, the price is affected by supply and demand, and for example, being added to Nasdaq 100 ETFs creates demand, which can temporarily increase buying pressure and raise the price. In the slightly longer term, however, the price should gravitate back towards its “correct” value determined by cash flows.
Even though the valuation is incomprehensible, this is new and the first in its field, so I still can’t say whether this will reach a trillion market cap or drop by 50 percent.
It seems that Palantir, through its services, is part of the incoming administration’s cost-saving programs—meaning that Palantir’s services are used to automate, optimize, and make good decisions, thereby saving money. Palantir’s Head of Defense, Mike Gallagher, who recently transitioned to the role of head of Palantir’s defense sector, says this quite directly in his WSJ piece. It may be that the article is just a sales pitch toward the administration. But I personally take the view that the sales pitches have already been made. Perhaps the most central point of the article is the development needs of the U.S. Navy. There is a desire to develop planning, procurement, and decision-making.
The title is somewhat provocative: “Pentagon has two years time to prevent WW III”
It is about streamlining the defense administration and thus getting the U.S. Pacific deterrent in order.
Indeed, Gallagher’s CV is such that his relations with the administration starting next year are likely more than solid. He has practically been a Trumpist for years, and the text is like something straight out of Trump’s playbook.
The next four years could be quite profitable for Palantir, and perhaps this is already being priced in, at least when looking at the company’s stock price performance and valuation levels.
In this tweet, a member of Palantir’s board refers to the index change causing exactly the same effect that I speculated in a previous post.
With a DCF model, one can certainly calculate a fair value, though it may also be difficult to value the fair value in this case.
Contracts coming through bootcamps are not yet known, but the number of bootcamp participants is known. The conversion % is not.
Cringe WSB meme slang, but I guess they aren’t even talking about a more sustainable price increase, but rather about profit-taking 
Really strange tweeting from a board member. Now the whole profile seems to have disappeared. I wonder if they got in trouble.
Edit. Found a tweet about the topic
https://x.com/unusual_whales/status/1857831246283301221
Gallagher (and also Karp) are quite the hawks. Below is a link to an article published by Gallagher together with Mike Pottinger in the spring of this year in Foreign Policy magazine, which is the leading American foreign policy discussion forum. Mere management of the situation is not enough; China must be defeated!
Okay, good points above. Palantir’s management has always had quite an antipathy towards institutions – always. But no more on that for now. But here are a few videos related to recent events and Palantir’s valuation.
In this video, nerds consider the current valuation, DCF calculations, etc., from many angles. In my opinion, they are quite down-to-earth here. The video mentioned that the analysts’ average price target is now 27 dollars, except for BofA’s Monica who has 50 and Yves with some other price target:
Then there’s a former banker’s estimate for ETF buying pressure:
So, the first video is professional in my opinion. The latter… what can I say… always remember to diversify so that your capital doesn’t halve in an instant because of one hit!
I sold mine a couple of days ago - euphoria and FOMO are way too high right now. You can definitely get this back cheaper. I’ll eat a liter of ice cream again if that’s not the case. 
- the company has indeed changed tremendously in terms of sales development over the past year. It wasn’t long ago when Karp thought this company might never be net profit.
This tweet contains an observation about the growth in the number of institutional owners, which likely relates to that recent Nasdaq thing as well. 
This probably isn’t an optimal comparison, but maybe thought-provoking or perhaps more provocative.
It’s worth noting that this is a very bullish account heavily focused on Nvidia.
There’s nothing too special here, but it’s still a pretty interesting comparison.
https://x.com/ZeevyInvesting/status/1863244163309060109
Palantir Granted FedRAMP High Baseline Authorization | Business Wire
“This milestone is an affirmation of our ongoing commitment to upholding the highest security standards and being trusted to handle our government partners’ most sensitive data and workloads, as well as our commitment to enabling the entire American technology base to support critical government needs.”
So, Palantir now has official status to handle high-security operations. The biggest defense deals might still be ahead.