Morgan Stanley:n päivitystä, jossa ei tosin viitata Outsaan mutta kahteen eurooppalaiseen kilpailijaan, sekä markkinatilanteeseen.
Boldaukset omia, mutta lyhyesti Euroopan tämän hetken tilanne on kursseissa, ml
-selvästi vähentynyt tuonti -40..-50%
-nousseet hinnat n +20%
-Acerinox mielenkiintoisempi kuin Aperam, koska USA-tuotanto (kuten Outsallakin), hinnat +20% vs Euroopla
Aperam shares fell over 3% on Tuesday after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stainless steel maker to “equal-weight” from “overweight,” citing a less asymmetric risk-reward profile following a recent re-rating in the stock.
Morgan Stanley raised its price target on the Luxembourg-based company to €52 from €48, even as it cut the rating. The brokerage said the first leg of Europe’s stainless steel recovery was “largely reflected in estimates and valuation.”
“We downgrade Aperam to EW after the re-rating,” analysts said, adding that the European stainless structural reset “remains intact, supported by policy,” but price and spread momentum “has paused.”
European stainless steel imports fell 40% year-on-year in the first quarter and 49% quarter-to-date in the second quarter, the note said.
Quota utilization averaged below 50%, which the brokerage said had muted the impact of stricter safeguard measures set to take effect on July 1.
European prices have recovered 22%, or €518 per metric ton, from a September 2025 trough, while spot spreads have risen 18%, the note said. However, the pace of price increases has slowed since March, with prices leveling out in May.
Morgan Stanley said Aperam’s normalized EBITDA ambition of €700 million to €800 million was “broadly reflected” in 2027 and 2028 consensus and the brokerage’s own expectations.
The brokerage forecast Aperam EBITDA of €481 million for 2026, €717 million for 2027 and €794 million for 2028, compared with consensus estimates of €513 million, €714 million and €788 million, respectively.
The brokerage forecast 2026 earnings per share of €2.20, rising to €4.39 in 2027 and €5.16 in 2028. It projected net debt falling to €414 million in 2028 from €978 million in 2025.
Morgan Stanley said it now sees greater medium-term upside in [Acerinox](Investing.com Mobile Apps for Android & iOS), which it rates “overweight,” citing the Spanish company’s US stainless steel exposure, where spreads remain about 20% above European levels. The brokerage raised its Acerinox price target to €18.40 from €15.50.
Aperam’s bull case scenario was raised to €72 per share from €67, while its bear case was unchanged at €19.
The brokerage set its base-case price target using an EV/EBITDA methodology with a target multiple of 6.4 times average estimated 2027-28 EBITDA, in line with the historical average of its closest peers.
Aperam’s stock has a consensus price target range of €30 to €65, with 33% of analysts rating it “overweight,” 50% “equal-weight” and 17% “underweight,” Morgan Stanley said, citing Refinitiv data.